Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 30/10/2018 08:48

The Oil Industry this week largely set out its stall for next year with respect to the issue of desperately needed capital investment to avert a future supply crunch - its going to continue sitting on its hands, rebuild balance sheets and re-start or increase dividends.

Something that's also likely to continue occurring across much of the copper sector until the copper price is driven up to a level which generates returns that justifies the extra risk.

Sounds like it has taken the worst recession to hit these sectors for many decades to bring some collective sense to the management that run them - long may it continue.


Big Oil Won’t Spend Despite Fat Profits - OilPrice.com

[mount teide] 30/10/2018 08:33

Some analysts on the basis of very short term dollar strength are saying that it is impacting oil and industrial metal pricing - they need to do a little research worthy of the name.

When copper and oil bottomed in Q1/2016 after 6-8 years of falls, the dollar index (DXY) was higher than it is today - the DXY has averaged today's figure for the last three years, during which Copper is up 45% and oil 162% to date.

[tomoneyfox] 29/10/2018 21:50

https://twitter.com/asiamet_res_ars/status/1057024751594393600?s=21

[sos100] 29/10/2018 15:33

I couldn't see anything really new in that presentation,just a rehash of some of the stuff they've done this year and comments on the copper market.

were already supposed to have explored more of the areas on the ksk licence-
in recent podcasts they've not even bothered to comment on the forestry permit for Bario-June was the rough date they gave us.
Normally they have a timeline chart(very much releveant for start BKM production)but there was nothing in this presentation.

not that impressed tbh, lots of work to do but at some point this will start recover.

[2lb] 29/10/2018 15:22

Still no word from Asiamet after FUT - a new presentation is all well and good but it's going to take a lot more than a few diagrams to get us back on track.

I see they are exhibiting at Mines and Money from 26-29 November so that means they will likley all be in London all that week.

In terms of timesacles we are already nearly at 2 weeks down, 22 to go (noting we have to adjust for ARS time at some point) so lets get some drilling plans out and being talked about and a steady stream of results flowing.

I'd still be offlaidng 40% of Beutong right now and getting the cash in the bank.

[cupidstunt42] 29/10/2018 14:21

Nice info, nothing were don't really already know but on a nice package. What I want to know is how does this work? ? Foreign shareholders must after five years of production divest their shares in stages, such that by the tenth year of production, foreign shareholders shall have a maximum 49% shareholding. Up to 20% of the shares of a PMA OP-IUP publicly listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange is treated as satisfying the obligation to divest up to 20% to Indonesian parties???

[aim0raider] 29/10/2018 13:43

New pressie is a good read, as always. hxxp://www.asiametresources.com/assets/pdf/20181026_pres.pdf

Nice to see c/lbs in the ground figures on there too.

Agreed MT, volumes back to usual levels now. Time to see some recovery in share price here.

[zho] 29/10/2018 13:41

Updated presentation at

[mount teide] 29/10/2018 12:15

Transaction volume today suggests most of the short term traders have now probably exited.

L2: JBER moved up onto the bid at 6.1p v 1 @ 6.2p, 2 @6.4p, rest 6.6p or higher.


Advfn - charts - doing their usual impression of impersonating financial website operators.

[tektonik] 29/10/2018 12:04

HZM taking a bit of a battering following a very good BFS this morning, nickel price working against them. ARS takes a huge battering by delaying it earlier this month (compounded by other factors), copper price not in favour. Let's hope that come c.Q1 next year the copper price is above 3.00 and we have an exciting BFS available. Fully expecting some news by Wednesday on this front.

[mount teide] 29/10/2018 11:30

Market reaction to the HZM news highlights well the extreme short term nature of many market participants.

Considering the market fundamentals - the balance of probabilities would probably suggest that anyone taking a 5-10 year view and building a position today is likely to do very well.

Back in 2000 the copper, oil and shipping markets after many, many years of falling prices were in despair - investor sentiment towards the sectors was appalling. Any executive calling for capital expenditure for exploration or production development or new ships would have put themselves at extreme risk of being taken out the Boardroom in a straightjacket.

Yet, by 2005 you could have been excused for thinking it was a totally different industry - sentiment was euphoric with capital investment being thrown around like confetti.

The only change? Not the assets, they remained the same.

The earning power of the assets had appreciated by a highly material amount as a result of copper, oil and ship charter rates rapidly rising to trigger capital investment in new production to close a growing supply deficit as demand continued to follow its long term annual growth rate.

[horneblower] 29/10/2018 10:51

Yes Gary, and I'm sure it will be a reasonable average to use over 28 years.
However it really doesn't help that the current price is $11.4 and apparently falling, when you are trying to arrange long-term financing.
I think it was brave of the directors to go ahead with the release of the FS and will stand them in good stead when the nickel price goes back up...which it will!
In the meantime I'm quite surprised the share price has stood up so well.

[mount teide] 29/10/2018 09:43

hawks - the market fundamentals point to a considerably higher copper price over the next 3 years as a result of a growing deficit compounded by NO global scale mines coming into production - the first three year period in more than 30 years where this has occurred, such has been the depth and brutality of the last sector recession.

Beyond that timeframe things could get even more interesting for the price of copper if a huge increase in capital expenditure fails to occur over the next few years because of the time lag that occurs between allocating capital and first production.

For a useful steer as to what the future holds for the price of copper Nat resource investors could also research why the World's largest copper miner Codelco is spending $25bn between 2016-2012 to just maintain its current production output by bringing into production huge volumes of low grade ore over the next decade that was previously considered close to being uneconomic at present prices.

Since the average length of the recovery/boom phase of each copper cycle is 7-9 years, patience has always been the key to success in previous cycles - something that increasingly is a rarity in today's equity markets.

[gary1966] 29/10/2018 09:11

HB the HZM nickel price is based over the life of mine of at least 28 years, as it should be.

[edjge2] 29/10/2018 08:53

I've added a fair bit today, agree with snickerdog, alias Mutley?. Funding fright. Outcome just delayed.

[aim0raider] 29/10/2018 08:27

Snicker, ARS investors await 'the plan', only then can we start to make up lost ground.

[hawks11] 29/10/2018 08:25

Thanks MT, you have rubbed my nose in the dirt by mentioning ASOS - looked to invest day one and decided it was rubbish and CKN "The largest shipbroker in the world," held and sold but continued to follow but not invest. I am older, wiser but no better at investment and resolving to hold on to ARS which will continue to multiply. The Chinese are quite likely to pose a threat, no one knows what they might get up to next.

[horneblower] 29/10/2018 08:23

HZM's FS is based on a nickel price of $14. The current price is around $11.5 and in a falling trend.

[highly geared] 29/10/2018 07:31

Interesting to see how the market views HZM’s BFS today.
IRR doesn’t look that impressive although the NPV is ahead of current market cap ( but isn’t it always).

[snickerdog] 29/10/2018 07:22

Do feel that this should be the bottom

[knobbly] 28/10/2018 21:34

Mount Teide, same here - I also look forward to your musings. Keep them up.

[monttim] 28/10/2018 21:11

Mount Teide, Thanks for your recent posts, hugely informative. I always look forward to your observations.
Cheers,
Mont

[mount teide] 28/10/2018 17:46

With the exception of an 18 months period during 2008/9 i've held a top five portfolio holding in Clarkson's for 19 years. It is by far the most successful investment i've made.

Hardly ever post there because few PI's invest in the shipping industry and of those that do even fewer understand or are willing to research its highly cyclical, long term boom and bust characteristics. The shipping industry is tied to the hip of its biggest customers - the commodity industry - it's why the shipping industry also bottomed after an 8 year recession along with Oil and Copper in H1/2016.

Over the years my occasional Advfn posts on the Clarkson's thread warning inexperienced investors of the extreme volatility the sector routinely experiences and why the Ports Sector may be a better choice for those wishing to get exposure to the shipping industry but are concerned with the volatility it routinely experiences, tended to push far more people in that direction than encourage them to want to research the shipping sector.

The reason two old shipping and ports industry friends and i now stick largely to the shipping, oil and copper sectors for our investments is because we each have 35 years plus hands on experience of these industries.

We have the scars of two previous shipping and commodity cycle downturns/recessions etched deeply into our backs running port and shipping companies as well as the enjoyment of the recovery stages when generating huge profits at times often seemed as easy as a walk in the park.

When you're running a largely fixed cost business and the price of your heavily in demand product goes up 4 fold in a year - that is not management genius it's the recovery stage of the shipping/commodity cycle - likewise when your income falls fourfold in a year its not necessarily bad management its simply the downturn/recession phase of the shipping/commodity cycle.

[jailbird] 28/10/2018 16:41

"Everyone to a certain extent talks their own agenda - the tone of your posts might suggest to a human psychologist that you may well have sold down some/all of your investment in Asia Met and may be looking for a cheaper entry point."

I think your talk your own agenda more than most I have come across MT.

I have openly admitted that I have sold as stop losses hit...and not looking for a cheaper entry..since I would have already bought back in. I rather wait and buyer higher..so be it.
I have my risk strategy....been through the boom and bust before.

You posts become imbalanced on stocks you own and I just do not necessarily agree with everything you say ...just agree to disagree on that....

[mount teide] 28/10/2018 16:02

jailbird - tell that to Oxiana Metals investors between 2000 and 2006 - the market cap went up 2,000 fold!

Everyone to a certain extent talks their own agenda - the tone of your posts might suggest to a human psychologist that you may well have sold down some/all of your investment in Asia Met and may be looking for a cheaper entry point.

For the valuation of a company to quickly fall to zero - usually either outright fraud will have occurred or the story will have changed via profit warnings etc.

If the value/growth story changes i sell - i don't sell because of general market sell-offs - why would i when over 80% of my portfolio is now invested in the oil and copper sectors that are coming out of a devastating half decade recession?

Two companies that did well for me over the last two years were XLM and TAP - both have been hit by recent uncertainty - calls for major regulatory changes to how personal data is handled by social media websites - so i sold as the growth story looks to have changed.

GYM has nearly doubled for me over the last year - i've taken the profit off the table - its currently being recycled into some of my existing oil and copper holdings and a new one Antofagatsa, because i think the copper and oil sectors will likely outperform GYM over the next 2-3 years - retained the original investment in GYM for a little diversity since I think it will continue to do very well as the lowest cost operator in its sector.