Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 04/1/2021 17:54

perfido

Do I remember correctly that you would consider buying if the share price dropped to 2750?

[bracke] 04/1/2021 15:07

fenners

LOL. Not a believer, just thought at the time there was a few £'s to be made. There was a spike up in 2007 and I took it. If I remember correctly it was a rumour about something happening in Germany. Needless to say it was as usual BS.

I suppose it's possible to make some money from it when it has the occasional spike up. It's similar to a lottery ticket and if you buy on that basis there's no great problem when it fails to perform. Unfortunately I suspect that when a spike occurs holders think the day of redemption has arrived and continue to hold for 'riches beyond the dreams of avarice' only to see the spike decline and any profit/minimised losses with it.

EDIT

Isn't it about time they came back for some more money?

[fenners66] 04/1/2021 14:31

bracke , you were , were , ....... a b' ..... be'...... believer !!

No! say you weren't ..... !

(I know, you were just trading it and making some cash thanks to another poor soul )

[bracke] 04/1/2021 14:12

kilgallp

On the other hand if the market had dropped your £6k would have been excellent judgement. I sold AHT many years ago and apart from a foray last year have not made anything like I should have done. BUT at one time I held PET shares and on one of their occasional spike's up sold and doubled my money. That was 'superb judgement' but I could easily have let them run to virtually zero today.

We act according to our best judgement of the situation. If we are wrong we try to analyse why.


Good day fenners

Another gap up today. Approx 100 points available when/if it fills. I would certainly be considering a short but would wait until the US open. Unfortunately the margin requirement and my current trades elsewhere preclude a trade.

[bmel] 04/1/2021 13:16

kilgallp

We have all been there.......at considerable lost profits.

[kilgallp] 04/1/2021 12:25

Appreciate your comments Bracke, but.... I planned to sell and repurchase, thinking I might make about £6K. Had I held I'd be about £19k up. I can only see that as an error of judgement.

They'd been my most successful holding for years, why did I suddenly try to be clever? I should have just let them run!

But hey-ho, what's done is done. Maybe that coup is what I need, to consider getting back in.

[fenners66] 04/1/2021 11:56

bracke
31 Dec '20 - 12:00 - 58468 of 58478

The 24th/29th gap filled.
fenners66
31 Dec '20 - 13:09 - 58469 of 58478 Edit

Good news for the share price then ?

At least today it was then ....

[bracke] 04/1/2021 11:51

Good day kilgallp

You did not get it wrong there have been retraces some have been sizeable but they were not reversals. On each occasion the ground was reclaimed and the share price continued to move higher.

The wall of fear confronts those who consider buying but it has not dissuaded those who move the price higher.

Perhaps a major Black Swan would reverse the market eg. A coup by Mr Trump.

[kilgallp] 01/1/2021 12:49

This has gone from strength to strength since I sold expecting a retrace...another one I got wrong!!

A Happy New Year and Good Luck to all holders.

[perfido] 31/12/2020 17:56

bracke

At the risk of splitting hairs my definition would be:

(Edited):

Bearish? My inclination when markets turn bearish is to hunker down and do nothing, good investments always recover and march on eventually, and downturns do present opportunities in my experience

Risk averse? I consider selling down individual investments which have over-performed, to an acceptable level of risk/loss as a % of portfolio. That said, I have few individual shareholdings, preferring managed funds.

In short in my lexicon, bearish sentiment is subject to the vagary of capricious markets, risk can be managed.

As always to each his own :-)

[bracke] 31/12/2020 17:49

perfido

I don't think there is much difference between "bearish" and "risk averse" semantics apart.

I don't argue with your last sentence, it's a question of what's going to kick start it.

Here's hoping for an improving year for all.

[perfido] 31/12/2020 17:40

Good day bracke,

Not bearish just risk averse, hence I have been reducing my AHT holding as the price has risen to keep within target exposure.

Happy to buy back and raise my stake if AHT falls back, long term holders never die!

However I fear a reckoning is to come with countries overborrowed, stock markets on steroids, and economies wrecked, but then stock markets are said to climb a wall of worry, so with this in mind, I wish everyone here a happy and prosperous ascent in the New Year.
.

[bracke] 31/12/2020 17:27

Good day perfido

What's this! Your post reads bearish! I never thought I would see the day!

If you check my recent posts you will see that my analysis is bearish but I am well aware that AHT can spring surprises.

If the share price does drop to 3350 that would be a fall of 179 from 3529 which is the high on the latest touch of the upper wedge line. Barring some major event there is little to see what will cause it to fall much further. All of the factors that took it to its current level are still in place.

[perfido] 31/12/2020 16:57

Hi bracke,

Interesting thanks, but everything is relative.

(PDF download)


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
(As at 30/12/20)
Ashtead Group Plc is currently trading at 3,489.00 which is 10.2% above its 50 day
moving average price of 3,167.22 and 32.7% above its 200 day moving average price of 2,628.98.

AHT:LN is currently trading at its 52-week high price of 3,489.00 and is 168.4% above its 52-week low price of 1,300.00. Over the past 52- weeks, AHT:LN is up 45.4% while on a calendar year-todate basis it is up 44.5%.

The Relative Strength Index(RSI) indicator for AHT:LN is currently 73. An RSI value of 70 and above is considered overbought and 30 and below oversold.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Although it may be pleasing to see the 12 month absolute gain between fixed dates, the volatility in that period has been extreme (e.g. low 1,300.00), and at the moment it's RSI indicates that it is overbought.

I like AHT and still hold some but only within a diversified (ISA) portfolio where AHT sale proceeds have been re-employed in other fruitful, lower risk, more diversified opportunities.

Just saying.... remember a profit is only a profit when it is crystalized

DYOR.
.

[bracke] 31/12/2020 15:34

I've been looking at the Hourly chart for a more detailed view of the likely price action in the New Year.

1 There is a gap from the 30th to 31st. A rise to 3489 is required to fill.

2 Resistance zone was at 3430. Since breaking through it has been tested a couple of times and held. It did close slightly below 3430 but within the zone. If it does drop again the cavalry will want to hold 3400, if they fail a high probability of 3350.

3 Closing share price 31/12.2019 - 2414

Closing price 31/12/2020 - 3438

Difference 1024 = 42.42% rise for the year. Well held those who did.

[bracke] 31/12/2020 14:28

Good day fenners

Maybe. Let's see what happens when the market returns to normal working on next week. We will see whether the attempt to break above 3500 was 'playing' by a few, or if the main players are prepared to take part.

[fenners66] 31/12/2020 13:09

Good news for the share price then ?

[bracke] 31/12/2020 12:00

The 24th/29th gap filled.

[bracke] 30/12/2020 17:57

Thanks perfido

It seems that the link shows the chart I am showing on my computer which is not very satisfactory. I will try to find an alternative.

fenners

An share price usually breaks up or down by the time it has run 2/3 along the wedge, they rarely continue the run straight through the apex.

As I posted earlier, during holiday low volume periods the share price is 'played with'. It's easy to manipulate a price when volume is low. The 'true' situation resumes when the holiday period is over.

If the share price is to b/out above the upper wedge line it will require more volume unless it can be done during the low volume period. The MACD and RSI are both high and the share price is a considerable way above the Daily SMA50, SMA100 and SMA200. Those indicators suggest a retrace is due at least to the wedge lower line.

[perfido] 30/12/2020 17:21

Hi bracke,

The chart now opens showing the AHT ascending wedge, thank you, this has developed well since we first discussed it.

Indeed I would modestly remind readers that I forecast a decision point from our wedge around 3510p, a price around which the share price has spent much of today.... (see forecast post 58398 10/12/20 price 3270p)

If this is success, the only question is, what part did serendipity play? :-)

[fenners66] 30/12/2020 17:11

I got the chart this time and have saved a screen dump of it.

I see we got the very late annoying fall back again today.

What does the chart say to you bracke ?
Obviously the direction of travel between the two lines is up and given the gradients that looks like a long time before they meet.

So is that where the share price is going or do the runes tell you something else - like the MACD is overbought or something ?

[bracke] 30/12/2020 13:49

I reckon after hitting 3500 yesterday it could not believe it and is going back to test. Or it could be what often occurs during holiday time. It becomes 'playtime' for those who are working. Because volume is low the share price can be manipulated, very naughty but profitable for the players.

[bracke] 30/12/2020 13:45

Thanks fenners

I suspect the link may show the chart I am viewing when you click on the link. I will leave it on the AHT chart until you have viewed it. Please let me know if that works.

[fenners66] 30/12/2020 12:49

Have they found a full Bitcoin wallet ?

[fenners66] 30/12/2020 12:48

How is the share price up to 3500 ?