Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[perfido] 14/9/2020 10:58

Good morning bracke,

Lol!

Please don't get fenners started on the dividend again, we'll never hear the end of it...

As for the share buyback programme, I note that a resolution was passed at the AGM, but I'm hoping it goes unnoticed. :-)

[fenners66] 14/9/2020 10:57

"Going to need a bigger b....." bed.

[bracke] 14/9/2020 10:50

Thanks for the information Riley


perfido

I agree what's happening to a share price more recently is the main focus but sometimes it is useful knowing the history of a company's performance if only as a reminder of the result of ridiculous valuations.

Don't spend all you divi at once. I believe fenners puts his under the mattress, nearly broke his neck getting out of bed recently.

"if/when things get choppy"
==========================

I think the 'if' is redundant! I am reminded of the expression 'may you live in interesting times'.

[perfido] 14/9/2020 09:30

Dividend received Friday, lovely jubbly!

AHT has done well recently, sold 10% of my diminishing holding @ 2840p today to bank some more profits, happy to buy back if the price drops appreciably if/when things get choppy, e.g brexit, US elections, pandemic etc

[riley109] 11/9/2020 18:07

Here you go Bracke,You can google all the Manchester Evening news articles regarding Speedy.That Steve Corcoran gets about a bit doesn't he.
Speedy Hire tunrover grows - Manchester Evening News
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk › ... › Business News
28 Sep 2007 - SPEEDY Hire , the largest tool and equipment hire company in the country, says trading is ... 08:34, 28 SEP 2007; Updated 09:31, 18 JAN 2013.

[bracke] 11/9/2020 17:09

Good day perfido

Thanks for the information.

I don't doubt what you post but interesting that I was unable to find any chart showing 1200 or anything like it or any mention on various investment sites about the rights issue. If you were thinking of buying SDY and did some research using investment sites you would fail to find the information you have posted.

None of the charts I looked at showed splits, rights issue, etc which they normally do

Even if you looked on the SDY thread you would have to look back 13 years to be any the wiser.

Yes I knew 'rumbers' had moved over to SDY.

I trust you are well and keeping virus free.

[bracke] 11/9/2020 14:01

Good day Riley

I've just spent a couple of hours searching about SDY and I am unable to find anything about splitting shares or a chart that shows the share price any where near 1200.In 2005 there was a spike which took the share price to 700.

If you remember the share price at 1200 so be it. It would be unpleasant for anyone buying any where near that level!

[riley109] 11/9/2020 09:39

Bracke,
The point is "look how well we are doing" then 12 months later or there abouts everything fell flat on its face.I know I was there,November 2008 phone stopped ringing.Speedy has never really recovered like Ashtead and they wouldn't have been where they are today if they'd stopped in the Uk it's too small.The only major share price fall came in 2000 I think it was when it plummeted to around 4p[can't bothered to dig out the stocktrade share certificate] because of the IRS misinformation.I bought in and out up to 65p a share and held ever since.None of my share dealings have come close to what these have returned over the years.I now have a very big problem.Anyone know how to outlive Methuselah.

[fenners66] 11/9/2020 01:18

£ tumbled against the $ that might help

[perfido] 10/9/2020 21:13

Good evening bracke

Looking at this chart the highest they have ever been is approx 360
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Not so, in 2007 Speedy traded above 1200 for a time and subsequently declined.

I believe that you need to allow for other factors such as the group issuing 458,658,900 new ordinary shares at 23p each, an 86% discount to the closing price of 176p on 27 May 2009 in looking at the price trend chart which looks as if it has been rebased.

Speedy has had a number of setbacks, as did Ashtead at one time, we have come through a great deal better thanks to an effective management team.

[bracke] 10/9/2020 17:30

I thought the quote was from 2007

"When our major clients are busy, we will be busy." This from 2007.
==================================================================

What was the point of posting something from 2007?

[riley109] 10/9/2020 17:22

Bracke,
Did you not read the bit .This from 2007?.I've put it at the top to stop any confusion.

[bracke] 10/9/2020 17:18

Riley

Where did you get that information from?

The closing share price to-day was 54p not 1224?

[riley109] 10/9/2020 17:11

This from 2007 SHARES in Speedy Hire, the north west tool and equipment hire giant have continued to rise after this week's bullish trading statement.

News that trading in the first 11 months of the year has been strong with reveues up 34 per cent prompted investment bank UBS to raise it share price expectation from 1200p to 1300p. The stock has risen nearly four per cent this week to 1224p.

The company said its equipment division - boosted by acquisitions - had seen its revenue shoot up by 58 per cent.

Depots

Newton Le Willows-based Speedy Hire is the UK's largest tool rental company with more than 350 depots in the UK and Ireland.

As well as small tools, the company rents out portable accommodation units, pumps, material handing gear, survey and measurement instruments and electric generators.

Finance director Neil O'Brien said the strength of the construction market was under-pinning Speedy's growth: "When our major clients are busy, we will be busy." This from 2007.That's what stopping in the uk has done plus going East instead of West [onward and upward].I think they also had relatively few shares in issue at the time.I won't be buying any.

[bracke] 10/9/2020 10:43

A drop back this morning to have another test of 2800 and then back up.


"Now if it settles back to rising a penny a day for a few years I'll be content for a while...."
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Wishful thinking fenners. We aren't in that type of market. It seems to be all or nothing. Maybe the markets will settle after the US Election.....maybe.

[fenners66] 10/9/2020 07:14

Speedy Hire update

"We have permanently closed 13 depots in the UK and further depots will be consolidated into larger operating locations. "

With their hire revenue now running at -8% that is not a good sign for the industry - but the closure of 13 depots will one assumes work well for AHT

[fenners66] 09/9/2020 18:09

4 days of just about rising volume then.
A huge rise.

Now if it settles back to rising a penny a day for a few years I'll be content for a while....

[bracke] 09/9/2020 13:34

A large move up over the past four days, particularly to-day. It will be interesting to see the volume at the end of the day.

Not quite an all time high which is 2879 but not far off at 2843 so far.

Following to-day's high it retraced to test 2800 which held and is now in the process of moving back up. The next move will be interesting. A break out and hold above 2879 or failure to do so and another test of 2800.

[netcurtains] 08/9/2020 11:37

I sold took profit. Thanks. Its near pre-covid highs and I felt that was fair value for me.
Thanks for all the information.

[fenners66] 08/9/2020 10:49

From the cash flow

Financing costs paid (net) 2020 (47.5) 2019 (30.1)

So increase of £17.4m

With £1bn less debt that should have been a decrease not increase.

[fenners66] 08/9/2020 10:35

" Net defined benefit pension plan liability 12.2 1.0"

This yr vs last yr up 1200% why ?

Who increases defined pensions in 2020 ?

[fenners66] 08/9/2020 10:12

" net debt reduced in the quarter by GBP541m

Net debt at 31 July 2020 was GBP4,822m (2019: GBP5,161m), resulting in a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.2 times (2019: 2.2 times) on a constant currency basis. The Group's target range for net debt to EBITDA is 1.9 to 2.4 times following the adoption of IFRS 16. Excluding the effect of IFRS 16, net debt at 31 July 2020 was GBP3,726m, while the ratio of net debt to EBITDA was 1.8 times (2019: 1.8 times) on a constant currency basis. The Group's borrowing facilities are committed for an average of six years at a weighted average cost of 4%. "


So without the free cash flow the ratio would have increased from 2.2x

Weighted average cost at 4% so there is the argument that the worst part of this is in excess of 4%.

I believe £1bn has been spent on buybacks - ostensibly this increases EPS

However I said ALL along this only increases EPS where all other things remain equal and all other things never remain equal !

So instead of increases in EPS we have falls.

ok so 1 quarters worth of interest on reduced debt - would be only £10m+ but what is the highest rate that would be removed?
What would the overall average rate have been reduced to if there was £1bn less borrowing?
Lower borrowing ratio of debt to EBITDA means a lower rate across the board.
Lower borrowing means - lower borrowing going forward as less interest compounds.

Less renegotiating fees which are a feature of the debt - regardless of whether they want to call them exceptionals or not.

Even £10m less tax at 25% would be an Increase in EPS of 4.8% on this quarter's earnings.

They remarked on lessons learned "in the last recession"....

Yes and they were companies with low debt come out much stronger.

Operate with low debt , when recession comes pick off some competitors on the cheap !