Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[perfido] 23/1/2020 13:12

Good afternoon bracke

Thanks for your explanation of your shorting indicator, I will watch from the sidelines with interest :-)

Re: 'I also have a few long term holds' - shock, horror, at last you have come out as a closet long term holder!! Has the world gone mad???
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[bracke] 23/1/2020 10:47

Good day perfido

The 'indicator' is a script which uses RSI to gauge a change in share price direction. It can be used on www.tradingview charts. It does need to be used in conjunction with other indicators. You may remember I tried to post a chart a few weeks ago but this site would not accept it.

No problem about getting trampled in the stampede for the exit. I get the impression that not many who post on this board trade shorts.

When there is a change of direction indicated I will post it.

Market timing is never easy but I am happy to trade long and short. I also have a few long term holds.

I note the share price dropped back to fill yesterdays gap.

[perfido] 22/1/2020 18:06

Hi bracke

Are you going to share the 'indicator' with us, or are you worried about getting trampled in the stampede for the exit? :-)

In any event I wish you luck. For my own part I'll be happy to ride out any correction, market timing is not my forte and it normally recovers within about two years or less ..

Being out of the market has often been the more damaging in my experience. (NAI)

[bracke] 22/1/2020 16:53

Good day perfido

"I think I spotted a frustrated shorter just itching to get his bet on, but AHT continues its inexorable rise in the face of numerous gaps... :-)"
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LOL. Indeed you did.

I'm still waiting for a Weekly indicator to give the green light to short. It has been accurate in the past but I only became aware of it at the end of last year.

Given my record of premature shorting this share price I am determined not to be caught out again. Unless I see the indicator I will not short. It may result in some lost opportunities, so be it. Rather than looking for 20-50 points I want a high probability of 100 plus.

Like most I have no idea how much higher the US market will rise and take AHT with it. Mr Trump is now talking about tax cuts in about nine weeks time and I've no doubt he will be pushing the FED to cut rates. One way or the other he is determined to keep the market moving up until the General Election in November.

In the meantime to-day AHT achieved an All Time Intra Day High of 2599.

[perfido] 22/1/2020 16:32

Good day bracke,

what do we see today...
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I think I spotted a frustrated shorter just itching to get his bet on, but AHT continues its inexorable rise in the face of numerous gaps... :-)

My preferred strategy, masterly inaction, seems prudent here

[bracke] 22/1/2020 13:17

And what do we see to-day.......a gap up and a shot at £26.

[bracke] 21/1/2020 10:27

AHHA! A quick dip to test £25 but didn't fancy the gap fill just yet. Back up to fill the gap to yesterdays close.

I'm still thinking gap fill but thinking is dangerous. We trade what we see don't we.

[bracke] 20/1/2020 16:53

I had some time this afternoon to review the chart......yes I know you can barely contain yourselves with glee.

The Daily chart shows the share price to be in a rising wedge from which it broke out to the upside on Friday. This morning it opened up higher but has since dropped back to close just above the upper trendline.

It's decision time. Do buyers come in to continue the move up or do sellers drop it back into the wedge to fill the Thursday/Friday gap.

Beware false b/outs and throw backs (drop back into the wedge to test support).

[bracke] 20/1/2020 14:25

Oh Goody. I'll see what I've got in the piggy bank.......5p, 6 buttons and a couple of washers. How many shares will that get me?

[fenners66] 20/1/2020 11:47

Really ?
The gamblers and apologists are dressing up the bad news as a buying opportunity !

[bracke] 20/1/2020 10:23

Good day fenners

But not in PET land!

[fenners66] 17/1/2020 23:37

Its been a good day.

[perfido] 17/1/2020 20:56

Good evening Davros,

I am sure that Edwards and Magee would disagree with your comments, and you should be in no doubt that bracke is a valued contributor to this board.

Perhaps you could tell us how you propose to add value here?
.

[davr0s] 17/1/2020 19:56

All these predictions again - you are just guessing

[bracke] 17/1/2020 18:14

Over the £25 fence and galloped on to an All Time Closing High - 2554 and an All Time Intra Day High - 2559.

Volume 2.116 million.

[fz13] 17/1/2020 16:37

May have spoken too soon with that order for over 500k shares

[fz13] 17/1/2020 16:16

I want to believe this move up, but there isn't volume behind it. Currently around 1.2m and the average 3 month is 1.3m. Sold at 2,544 today to shift this to my ISA...hoping to get back in a few pips lower

[bracke] 17/1/2020 14:22

A leap over the £25 fence. If it's the real thing it needs to continue up otherwise it will drop back to test £25 with the probability of a gap fill.

To-day's initial rise took the share price above the upper trendline but it has since dropped back to the trendline. As yet no signal on the Weekly chart for a short. I will be patient.

[perfido] 17/1/2020 13:43

SMCN1968

I assume post 57588 is the background to the Morgan Stanley revised target price of 3000p -

nice one, many thanks :-)

[fenners66] 17/1/2020 13:22

Make America Great again....

..... spend $Billions on infrastructure projects

You know it makes sense.

I was in Orlando a while back and noted they were expanding the Freeway up to 6 lanes and 8 or more in places.
The cost is $bns

I wondered whether they really needed to get so many lanes - but at the airport returning home spoke to someone who had been on holiday there when they had a hurricane related evacuation....

Then I realise they couldn't get enough lanes !

More hurricanes on the way more infrastructure required.

[smcni1968] 17/1/2020 12:35

On the back of new and granular analysis of the US data centre construction market, we raise Ashtead to join United Rentals at Overweight. Ashtead's mid-cycle valuations belie a structural growth opportunity in equipment rental to data centre construction sites with a large and defensive MRO opportunity thereafter. We believe the three year pipeline visibility of builds and expansions by the major tech players in the US presents a ~$1bn revenue opportunity for Ashtead's US Sunbelt brand,not currently discounted by the market. This puts our estimates 7- 12% ahead of consensus for Ashtead in FY21/22even accounting for a more benign cyclical backdrop in FY21. Our £30 target price implies a modest 13x P/E for best-inclass growth in European Business Services.

[dcarn] 17/1/2020 11:55

I concur, once in a lifetime. Makes this investing game seem easy.

[perfido] 17/1/2020 10:51

Hi Jimi

re: Are you still holding from the early days?
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I've held continuously since 19th Aug 1997, selling a few when AHT looked overbought, and buying when the price has fallen. Gradually my core holding has been reduced, to manage risk as the average price has risen.

It has been a once in a lifetime investment for me (and I suspect a few others here), and it appears, we're not done yet!

[smcni1968] 17/1/2020 10:17

ASHTEAD GROUP PLC AHT.L: MORGAN STANLEY RAISES TO OVERWEIGHT FROM EQUALWEIGHT, RAISES TARGET PRICE TO 3000P FROM 2420P -

[dcarn] 17/1/2020 10:05

Have we been tipped somewhere or new broker upgrades out? There must be something behind the jump.

Edit. Yeah, now £4.32 higher than the average buyback price :-)