Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[ianwwwhite] 19/10/2017 15:27

Bracke,

No problem, we are beginning to see definite indications now of a particular type of gap, but in view of your comments re suspect volume data, I suggest we await verification till we have reliable figures...

[bracke] 19/10/2017 13:24

ian

A shall await your gap answer with interest.

[ianwwwhite] 19/10/2017 13:16

bracke,

Many thanks for your further comments, adding context to today's price movements.

I continue to watch and learn!

[bracke] 19/10/2017 13:15

fenners

You may have seen this.

[bracke] 19/10/2017 12:13

Good day uppompeii

It was implicit.

ian

An excellent answer especially the last sentence!

I agree about volume shown at the end of day but.......my understanding is that volume can be delayed for a given number of hours but must be given by the end of day. However looking at the 3 month chart above does show anomalies between volume and price action. I suspect that volume is on occasion delayed until the next day.

The share price is currently hard up against the ML. If it is going to break above the ML the probability is that it will do so with a 'zoom' rather than a gradual move.

The PF I am using was drawn off major pivots in July and August. Following the gap at 1679 the two following candles pushed the share price above the ML but were unable to keep it there. Since then there has been only one more attempt but it was minimal effort. Failure to break above the ML is no bother, as long as the share price moves up, so what.

[uppompeii] 19/10/2017 11:39

bracke, you missed "mind the gap".

[ianwwwhite] 19/10/2017 11:25

Hi bracke,

So now you're setting homework? I'll get back to you on that with a considered view :-)

In the meantime maybe the two brokers estimates published today gave the price a bit of a spur, but they are only reiterating previous positions:

* Libernum Capital 2030p buy (reiterates) 19/10/17
* Jefferies 2000p buy (reiterates) 19/10/17

I wonder whether there is other news which has leaked out?

[bracke] 19/10/2017 11:04

Good day ian

"maybe there is something in this TA stuff after all!! :-)"
===========================================================

It helps.


Something for you to ponder.

Do you think to-day's opening gap is:

A) A common gap.

B) An exhaustion gap.

C) A breakaway gap.

D) A runaway gap.

E) A continuation gap.

Your answer must include full logical reasoning.

[ianwwwhite] 19/10/2017 10:52

Good morning bracke

Congratulations on great bit of analysis yesterday, maybe there is something in this TA stuff after all!! :-)

Re 'reinvigorated' comment, it does seem that AHT today has excelled itself, up 44p at 1918p as I write, hence the hyperbole! Long may it last!

[bracke] 19/10/2017 10:42

Yesterday evening I posted:

"Drawing a line across the highs on 12/9 and 03/10 and extending upward puts the next 'hit' at approx 1890. The longer view providing the rise continues puts the ML target at approx 1920."
====================================================================================

It came faster than I expected (typical AHT). It didn't stop for breath at 1890 preferring to move straight to 1920 which is where it has reached the ML and resistance.........and we have another opening gap......just saying that's all.

Unfortunately fenners barring mishap it appears that you will have to put up with 2000 by Christmas. Into each life a little rain must fall. Strong upper lip and all that.

What's all this "got it's mojo back" and "reinvigorated"!!!! It's never been otherwise. What do you want blood!!!!

[ianwwwhite] 19/10/2017 09:38

fenners

I have noticed that on a number of boards, there seems to be a distinct lack of appreciation of objective analysis, and the 'gamblers' who dominate the posts just classify everyone they disagree with as 'shorters' or 'rampers' and add little value with their posts.

I occasionally look in at the UKOG thread for entertainment!

[fenners66] 19/10/2017 09:24

I hardly ever give an opinion on share price moves - is it going up down etc, but I do give opinion on the RNS's and what they are trying to say. So many gamblers are only interested (for their own ends of course) on the hearing this is going up or this is going down BS. But warn them about real news and when the share price falls its shoot the messenger time. However its the silent majority that read the info, that I'm speaking to, the gamblers are too far gone.

[ianwwwhite] 19/10/2017 09:23

Good morning DD,

It does seem like AHT has been reinvigorated, although it's worth mentioning that 12 months ago AHT price was around 1315, so a rise of 45% within that period can't be bad IMHO.

I am guessing that you have retained some of your AHT holding, and are enjoying the ride? I sold 12% of my holding recently at 18.49, so reducing risk does come at a price. :-)

[ianwwwhite] 19/10/2017 09:16

Well done fenners!

Unfortunately you can only help those that wish to be helped. I've had a quick glance at the IRV thread, there seems to be a lot of 'whistling in the dark' going on!!

[fenners66] 19/10/2017 09:06

I just had a spat with some on the Interserve BB.

I had them on my watchlist for some time as a yield share - then they started out saying things were not as good etc......

On Monday Sky News leaked that a consortium of lenders had called in EY - so I suggested that was a reason for the share price fall - which received a response from the longs that that was normal......(as if!)

I reiterated the point that it was not normal and I took it as bad news just last night.

Today there is an RNS saying margins have collapsed and they were on course to breach banking covenants.

Share price in free fall.

You just cannot help some people arguing as if they were experts that its normal to be expensively investigated by the lenders that can see your cash flow !

[discodave4] 19/10/2017 08:51

Looks like the old AHT mojo is coming back........been a while.

[ianwwwhite] 19/10/2017 08:42

Good morning fenners,

I share your views, 'nice and easy does it' suits me fine usually, not that I'm ungrateful! Interested to find out what is behind this ....

[fenners66] 19/10/2017 08:21

Wow !

I guess I would be happier if it was to slow down but this is interesting....

[ianwwwhite] 19/10/2017 08:10

Good morning bracke,

Thank you for your views.

It seems AHT is keen to please, spiked to +30p at the start, and now around 26p at 1900 with a gap.

Amazing!

[fenners66] 18/10/2017 21:07

Its not supposed to get to 2000 before April 6th 2018 !

[bracke] 18/10/2017 18:41

Good day ian

Upward, upward, ever upward.

Drawing a line across the highs on 12/9 and 03/10 and extending upward puts the next 'hit' at approx 1890. The longer view providing the rise continues puts the ML target at approx 1920.

Will it be 2000 by Christmas?

Much appears to depend on Mr Trump's tax reductions. If he fails to deliver viewing the 3 month chart above and the two biggish unfilled gaps gives a clue as to where the share price may return.

[ianwwwhite] 18/10/2017 17:46

Good afternoon bracke,

Another record breaking day....

I am absolutely amazed at the gravity defying levitation our markets and AHT are continuing to achieve!

Do your charts give any clue as to where we are going next, because on a fundamental basis IMHO we are well past the irrational exuberance stage?

Can't help feeling there will be 'tears before teatime' as nursie used to say...

[bracke] 18/10/2017 17:08

All time Intraday and closing high 1874. Volume 761,111.