Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 13/7/2015 18:45

Again, thanks for your time Bracke.Was hovering over the buy button today, slightly miffed I missed that dip. Suppose my dilemma is exactly as you have outlined - want to top up my ISA on any dip around 1043, but knowing my luck it will then make its mind up to head towards 1000 rather than 1200!.Decisions, decisions, decisions.........sit on my hands and wait to see what occurs across the pond this week.DD

[bracke] 13/7/2015 17:42

"He raised his voice, be humble before bracke"
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You have been very quiet of late uppompeii but nice to see you still know the order of things!

[bracke] 13/7/2015 17:34

Disco

The link below shows a five year chart. You will see that there has been the occasional pierce of the Daily SMA 200 but not what would be considered a fall below it as has now occurred.

Sorry it will not accept the link. You will have to find a chart.


"Is there any TA signal that confirms its now in a sustained downtrend,"
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The signal as I posted earlier is a continued fall below the last swing low. There is 'reading' the price action by means of the candles but that is a matter of experience and practice. AHT is 'naughty' in that it likes to give false signals.


"or is the current downtrend since June just a repeat of the same pattern that occurred March-Early".
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Since the start of the year there have been three falls of 150-200 points and two rises of similar amounts. It now has to decide whether to continue the fall or move back up. If it moves back up the share price reaction to the Daily SMA 200 is crucial.

[discodave4] 13/7/2015 17:08

Thanks Bracke, your feedback always appreciated.The last swing low (thought I'd throw that new phrase in!) was hit again today but bounced back up - missed my top up opportunity!! (work interfering). If you look at the graph for URI today it also had an identical dip at about the same time.Not been in here as long as many (only a pup at 2.5 years!) but cannot recall it going so far below the SMA 200 or for such a long period as it has over the passed couple of weeks.Is there any TA signal that confirms its now in a sustained downtrend, or is the current downtrend since June just a repeat of the same pattern that occurred March-Early April, albeit at a slightly lower level ? (as you say it's just going sideways).GLDD

[bracke] 13/7/2015 16:16

Disco

For the past few trading days the share price has been supported at the last swing low which was on the 10 April which coincides with the Median Line. It did dip and close below these levels for two days but pulled back up to rest above them.

The last swing low is important because a continued move below it rings alarm bells that a reversal is underway.

IF (big one) it does reverse the next support is at the next swing low and psycho level of 1000.

If you look at the chart you will see that the share price has been trading sideways this year. If it does move back up it will be interesting to see if there is sufficient buying to move and hold it above the Daily SMA 200.

I wish you well with your decision making.

[uppompeii] 13/7/2015 16:15

He raised his voice, be humble before bracke

[discodave4] 13/7/2015 15:56

Sorry! Lol.Want to top up here and timing is everything so truly appreciate your views.ThanksDD

[bracke] 13/7/2015 15:37

WHAT!!! DISAGREE WITH ME!! HOW DARE YOU!!


You may well be correct but AHT has a history of doing the unexpected; rising when unexpected and falling when unexpected. Another reason why I prefer charts to fundamentals and news but each to their own. Whatever brings success.

[discodave4] 13/7/2015 15:22

Dare I disagree (truly no offence intended) - all markets are up today on the back of the Greece deal, yet AHT is as you say "undecided".Given that U.S. accounts for 85% of AHT's revenue IMV doubt it's Greece that's the concern but the U.S. According to IG's open accounts 60% are short on Wall Street.Would never question your charting/TA though!!.GLDD

[bracke] 13/7/2015 15:06

Good day Disco

I suspect it's due to the Greek situation. Were there a failure for the fudge to solidify there would certainly be a chunk of negative fall out. I accept that there are other factors including the FED interest rate rise and China to consider.

Given the above it's why I prefer to trade on the charts. One never knows the interpretation the market will put on news.

[discodave4] 13/7/2015 14:41

Thanks Bracke,Do you think it's "undecided" more because of the start of US Q2 earnings season rather than Greece/Euro?, it's a couple of the bank majors tomorrow I think.GLDD

[bracke] 13/7/2015 14:21

The share price is currently undecided, perhaps until the Greek Fudge has solidified.

If the Greeks 'swallow' the German medicine and the share price rises resistance is likely at the Daily SMA 200 currently at 1095 and the psychological 1100.

If the Greeks 'spit out' the German medicine or some Euro Members decline to hand over the cash, then 1044 comes back under pressure and is likely to break.

[discodave4] 10/7/2015 19:17

Perhaps the novel concept of tool hire express stores located by major construction projects could be rolled out across the UK?, see article below (apologies in advance if the link is not accessible - think it's my IPad):-hTTp://www.khl.com/magazines/international-rental-news/detail/item109446/A-Plant-hire-store-supports-%E2%82%AC2-billion-projectUK rental specialist A-Plant has opened a new Tool Hire Express store on the Teal Business Park in Widnes, Cheshire.One of its key functions of is to offer contractors working on the £1.86 billion (€2.6 billion) Mersey Gateway Project immediate access to a range of tools, small plant and consumables for hire or sale.The project itself is to build a six-lane toll bridge over the River Mersey between Runcorn and Widnes, which is due to open in the autumn of 2017.Last year, A-Plant was officially selected as a preferred supplier of equipment to be used for construction work throughout the duration of the project.The company is approved to supply a range of equipment to the Merseylink Consortium, including powered access equipment, generators, and lifting and safety equipment.DD

[discodave4] 10/7/2015 18:43

Aunty Yellen later this afternoon:(ShareCast News) - The first increase in the US central bank's main policy rate is likely to come later in 2015, the chair of the Federal Reserve said.Speaking at The City Club of Cleveland Janet Yellen said: "I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy."Dow +1.1%DD

[kilgallp] 09/7/2015 16:29

Added a few more today.

[bigboots] 09/7/2015 15:12

So cheap, am I missing something ???

[bracke] 08/7/2015 10:12

2flat

"but surely the technical analysis will not be of much use in such a skewed market".
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I can understand why you may think that but within the volatility and swings technical analysis still applies and operates. Whatever the state of the market it is never random or ad hoc. There is always method in its madness.

As I type I note that the share price has managed to move just above 1043 whether it holds is another matter.

[2flatpack] 07/7/2015 19:38

Bracke
good evening
You like the volatility, but surly the technical analysis will not be of much use in such a skewed market.
cheers

[bracke] 07/7/2015 18:34

Good day Disco

All is well. I like the volatility, very nice for day trading.

The Greek situation is taking its toll. If a settlement is reached the market is likely to 'power up', if it isn't, who knows how it will resolve.

[discodave4] 07/7/2015 18:22

Thanks bracke, hope all is well.Sea of red today, especially some of the oilers.Had a quick look yesterday and about one-third of the FTSE100 company's were/are below their 200SMA, with on average a share price at 20% below their 52 week high. AHT is now at about 17% below its 52 week high and hit its 300SMA (appreciate this is not a normal value to use but just to show how far it's fallen below its 200SMA).Think will wait until later in the week before topping up!.GLDD

[bracke] 07/7/2015 17:37

The share price has today broken below the swing low at 1043 which is concerning. If it fails to break back up, the next support is at 1000 which is also the previous swing low.

[discodave4] 07/7/2015 16:57

Ditto lolDD

[discodave4] 06/7/2015 21:01

May join you with a top up.....see what tomorrow brings.GLDD