Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 18/10/2018 16:48

Having tried and failed to break and hold above 2000 the share price has dropped to test the recent low. You will note, fenners please pay attention, that yesterday although it managed to break above 2000 it got no further than the black lower quartile.

Depending on the US markets a drop to the next support at 1880 is a fair probability.

AHT DAILY

[bracke] 18/10/2018 14:35

fenners you haven't being paying attention have you!

From post 55883

"2000 has previously been support the danger is that it will now be resistance. I hope not, mater will be upset."

[fenners66] 18/10/2018 14:26

The sudden share price fall which is resuming it seems.

I cannot see the URI results being responsible for the fall - I already highlighted the snippets from Numis - last night - whilst they don't seem to have read far enough down to the delay or ceasing of the share buybacks and the multiple used for the acquisition.....


AHT are already buying more bolt-ons and I have happy with that - no need to load up the balance sheet with debt to overpay for some large acquisitions.

But then we still have debt because we are buying back shares ....

[fenners66] 18/10/2018 14:26

The sudden share price fall which is resuming it seems.

I cannot see the URI results being responsible for the fall - I already highlighted the snippets from Numis - last night - whilst they don't seem to have read far enough down to the delay or ceasing of the share buybacks and the multiple used for the acquisition.....


AHT are already buying more bolt-ons and I have happy with that - no need to load up the balance sheet with debt to overpay for some large acquisitions.

But then we still have debt because we are buying back shares ....

[smcni1968] 18/10/2018 13:40

From Numis:

Ashtead (Buy, TP: 2800p) United Rentals Q3 Results ahead, guidance raised, shares softer
• Key points: 1) Q3 Trading – Q3 Group revenues of £2.116bn increased by 20% YoY, and were ahead of a consensus forecast of $2.02bn. Group EPS of $4.74 was also ahead of a market consensus of $4.65. Rental revenues of $1.86bn increased by 21% YoY, with owned equipment rental revenues increasing by 20%, comprised of volumes up 18%, rates +2% (commentary that rates were up each month in a competitive market). On a pro-forma basis adjusted for acquisitions, volumes increased by 11%, with rates up 2.1%. This compared to 2.8% in Q3. We note the YoY comparatives were c.1.3% tougher. 2) FY18 Guidance Raised – Management raised the FY18E outlook for Group Revenues to reflect a combination of strong market demand, contributions from completed acquisition of BakerCorp (but not yet BlueLine), which “together with internal and external indicators point to a solid Q4 and healthy momentum into 2019”. FY18 Revenues were increased to $7.77-7.87bn (from $7.64-7.84bn previously). The Adjusted EBITDA ranges moves to $3.765bn to $3.815bn (from $3.715-3.815bn previously), raising the lower end of the range, but leaving the top-end unchanged. There was also a small increase in net rental capex. 3) United Rentals’ shares fell c.4-5% in aftermarket trading, which we believe reflects some disappointment with the lack of bolder profitability guidance, and the lower YoY performance in rates versus Q2 on a headline level. United holds its Q3 Results conference call at 1600 UK today, which should provide greater detail on the trading dynamics of the US rental market. 4) We remain positive on Ashtead’s shares, which have underperformed by 8% over the past three months and trade on a calendar 2019E of 11x. We believe this has reflected concerns about the impact of rising labour costs and the impact that trade tariffs may have on internal investment in the US. We believe these concerns are overdone, and would look to Buy Ashtead in the current period of weakness. We believe it continues to offer investors the prospect of positive earnings momentum, improving returns from its clusters roll-out strategy and further scope for M&A as well returns of capital to shareholders.

[bracke] 18/10/2018 12:59

Good day fenners

"What happened this morning ?"
===============================

To what are you referring?

[bracke] 18/10/2018 12:56

ONE OFF!!!

Apart from a slight aberration a couple of years ago I have been providing 'gems' of information all gratis. The phrase about looking a gift horse in the mouth comes to mind.

[uppompeii] 18/10/2018 12:32

Hmm, praise cannot be heaped on what could be a one off...

[fenners66] 18/10/2018 11:06

What happened this morning ?

[bracke] 18/10/2018 10:46

What chance AHT follows suit and also hits the acquisition trail?

[fenners66] 18/10/2018 00:36

The company expects to pause repurchases under the program following the completion of the pending BlueLine acquisition discussed above. The company intends to complete the share repurchase program; however, it will continue to evaluate its decision to do so as it integrates BlueLine.

Hoorah - some common sense - over to you AHT......

[fenners66] 18/10/2018 00:35

They are also upping their 2018 forecast sales range but leaving the top end of EBITDA6 the same and reducing free cash flow.....

[fenners66] 18/10/2018 00:32

Guessing that Blue Line acquisition is at a heavy profit multiple

[fenners66] 18/10/2018 00:29

Maybe it was this ~:

BlueLine Acquisition

On September 10, 2018, the company announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Vander Holding Corporation and its subsidiaries (“BlueLineR21;) for approximately $2.1 billion in cash. The company expects to fund the acquisition using a new $1 billion term loan facility and other debt issuances. BlueLine is one of the ten largest equipment rental companies in North America, serves over 50,000 customers in the construction and industrial sectors, and has 114 locations and over 1,700 employees based in 25 U.S. states, Canada and Puerto Rico. BlueLine has annual revenues of approximately $786 million. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter, subject to Hart-Scott-Rodino clearance and other customary conditions.

Racking up the debt at a time of rising rates.....

But more consolidation - should be good for rental rates

[smcni1968] 17/10/2018 21:37

URI dropped 6% (now only down 2%) for no good reason I can see. Shoot first ask questions later seems to be the order of the day

[smcni1968] 17/10/2018 21:23

Trading down 6% unfortunately

[ianwwwhite] 17/10/2018 21:20

United Rentals Announces Third Quarter 2018 Results and Raises 2018 Total Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Guidance

United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE: URI) today announced financial results for the third quarter 2018. Total revenue was $2.116 billion and rental revenue was $1.861 billion for the third quarter, compared with $1.766 billion and $1.536 billion, respectively, for the same period last year. On a GAAP basis, the company reported third quarter net income of $333 million, or $4.01 per diluted share, compared with $199 million, or $2.33 per diluted share, for the same period last year. The third quarter 2018 includes a net income benefit associated with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the “Tax Act”) that was enacted in December 2017. The Tax Act reduced the U.S. federal corporate statutory tax rate from 35% to 21%, which contributed an estimated $0.73 to earnings per diluted share for the third quarter 20182.

Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $4.74 per diluted share, compared with $3.25 per diluted share for the same period last year. The reduction in the tax rate discussed above contributed an estimated $0.87 to adjusted EPS for the third quarter 2018. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.059 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin was 50.0%, reflecting increases of $180 million and 20 basis points, respectively, from the same period last year. Excluding the impact of the BakerCorp acquisition, adjusted EBITDA margin improved 80 basis points year-over-year to a record of 50.6%.

Third Quarter 2018 Highlights

Rental revenue increased 21.2% year-over-year. Owned equipment rental revenue increased 20.3%, reflecting increases of 17.8% in the volume of equipment on rent and 2.1% in rental rates.

Pro forma rental revenue increased 10.9% year-over-year, reflecting growth of 7.4% in the volume of equipment on rent and a 2.1% increase in rental rates.

Time utilization decreased 100 basis points year-over-year to 70.9%, primarily reflecting the impact of the Neff and BakerCorp acquisitions. On a pro forma basis, time utilization decreased 10 basis points year-over-year to 70.7%.

For the company’s specialty segment, Trench, Power and Fluid Solutions, rental revenue increased by 39.5% year-over-year, including a 12.7% increase on a same store basis.

Rental gross margin decreased by 250 basis points to 52.3%. The decrease in rental gross margin was primarily due to the impact of the BakerCorp acquisition and an increase in lower-margin fuel revenues primarily within the Power and HVAC region.

Source:

[dcarn] 17/10/2018 19:01

Lets see if United Rentals brings positive news in a couple of hours.

[jimohno] 17/10/2018 18:50

Thanks bracke.

[bracke] 17/10/2018 18:34

jim

It is now testing 2000. When it dropped below 2000 on Monday buyers came in and bought it back up whether they will do so again we will have to wait wait and see. It's too early to say which way it will go.

uppompeii

I posted that there was no need to be "stinting'. A little more effusiveness would not be untoward.

[jimohno] 17/10/2018 18:15

Well I'm impressed bracke, excellent forecasting. The question is where do you see it going from here?

[bracke] 17/10/2018 18:02

I deserve full marks for that one. Exactly as previously posted

Filled gap, retrace and test of 2000.

Where are you uppompeii? There is no need to be stinting with your praise.

[fenners66] 17/10/2018 15:08

Are we a yoyo stock now?