Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 13/9/2018 10:19

Disco - I can not like buybacks and still love the investment/company - the 2 are not mutually exclusive.

There is no knowing where the share price would be with say 2x or even 3x the dividend.

If we are spending roughly £165m pa on dividends now , another £165m or even £330m a year would be possible.

So where would the share price be if we were offering regular dividends of £1 share ?

Assuming growth is the same in as in the current model and borrowings were lower (lower interest charge) with a 3x payout we could be lots higher - who knows ?

Shares are not just valued on a dividend yield - there is a wide spread in the market of yields from zero to about 10% - but if the PEG here is the reason for a yield at 1.4% then triple the payout and triple the sp?

[discodave4] 13/9/2018 09:24

Since the buyback started (June 2016) the share price to-date has increased by 150%, for the same preceding period (circa 26 months) the share price increased only about 12%.......appreciate loads of other factors but your statement fenners is pure speculation on your part.No offence but if you do think that then why don't you sell up?.

[fenners66] 13/9/2018 09:09

Its because of share buybacks rather than dividends............. !!

[discodave4] 13/9/2018 09:01

Did think on the back of very good results that we would have waved goodbye to £24, but not so........one day!.

[fenners66] 12/9/2018 15:49

Sorry Florence

[ianwwwhite] 12/9/2018 14:02

fenners,

Just a small point, Hurricane Frances hit Florida in 2004.

I guess you meant Hurricane Florence which is expected to make landfall shortly along the Carolina coast. I read somewhere that Ashtead/Sunbelt have set up to support and capitalise on the resultant 'cleanup' demand as you would expect.

[fenners66] 12/9/2018 12:37

Bloomberg ran an article about who will lose out and who will gain from Hurricane Frances last night.

Rather obviously the insurers were pointed to as losers, whilst DIY builders and building materials groups were targeted as winners

If there is a $27bn rebuild cost if I remember correctly 6% of cost is alocated to plant hire that suggests $1.6bn

Looks like pumps are going to be in demand.

[bracke] 12/9/2018 11:05

Good day fenners

The Monday/Tuesday gap is 114 which is large. Will it fill?

Today the share price is back up to 2440 where it has been several times previously but has always dropped back. If the gap is not to be filled in the short/mid term then the share price has to breakaway beyond 2440 and keep going.

What are the chances of a breakaway? I doubt many retail investors will be buying at the current level which leaves the institutions. There are three companies listed as major shareholders all with 5%. It appears none want to hold the larger amounts we saw a few years ago. I therefore deduce that unless there is an announcement of something special a breakaway is unlikely.

Unless the breakaway occurs the gap will fill but may take a few weeks to do so.

OK AHT I have stuck my neck out prove me wrong!

[discodave4] 11/9/2018 21:57

As posted earlier I'm going with eps 182p, share price £27.Liberum reiterates buy with a target price of 2,650p. DD

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 21:33

173p
but that is not agressive

High volume and a good close today

Do we still have to mind the Gap bracke ?

[discodave4] 11/9/2018 21:31

Any views on year end earnings?

[ianwwwhite] 11/9/2018 20:14

URI currently +4.9%, 167.85

[ianwwwhite] 11/9/2018 17:13

Furthermore, food for thought:

I calculate that the 13,937,657 shares purchased under the current buyback plan at a cost of £300m give an average cost per share of £21.52

Those same shares at todays closing price of £23.98 would be valued at £334,225,015, giving a notional profit of £34,225,015, in addition to the saving on the final dividend payment of around £3,832,856 payable on 15th Sep, and further such savings thereafter.

It is also worth noting that within the terms of the buyback 'Such shares (in treasury) will remain in issue and capable of being re-sold by the Company or used in connection with certain of its share schemes'.

What's not to like? Happy days!

[ianwwwhite] 11/9/2018 16:19

Time to get real:

I note that Resolution 16 empowering the Directors to make market purchases of the company's shares under Sect 701 of the Companies Act was passed at today's AGM with:

337,697,470 proxy votes for
6,345,480 against
536,404 withheld

So, it appears a substantial majority voted in favour of buybacks, and the naysayers were out-voted....

[bracke] 11/9/2018 13:51

Fair comment and targeting is only a target not a given.

I agree economic activity will not stop but it could be severely curtailed.

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 13:43

I would guess that the directors would say they cannot control the stock market and the share prices - however they can manage the business and let the share price take care of itself.

So the devise a strategy and just implement it....

Economic activity in the US will not stop if the market falls - after all the market has risen a long way so its only paper profit for many.

[bracke] 11/9/2018 13:28

Good day fenners


My query was: irrespective of market share, organic growth, acquisitions, etc would double digit growth be achievable if the S&P fell 20%.

Acquisitions are a moot point. Buying others may maintain double digit growth but at a cost which could affect the share price adversely.

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 13:00

bracke are you confusing 20% share price falls with AHT capturing market share , organic growth in the market and bolt on acquisitions to get to double digit revenue growth ?

[bracke] 11/9/2018 12:38

The first sentence of the H-L Report begs a question.

"Ashtead is targeting annual double-digit revenue growth through to 2021"

The US markets are due a 20% decline. It seems a fair probability that it will occur during the next couple of years. If/when it does what does that do to the double-digit target?

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 12:26

At last someone shares my view on the debt / buybacks

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 12:14

"Progressive dividend policy maintained" - Not progressive enough !

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 12:12

UK utilisation chart is worse - that's just sloppy letting accountants present charts - they know the figures so they do not pay attention to presentation.

[discodave4] 11/9/2018 12:10

H&L View:HTTPS://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/201809/ashtead-profits-soar-as-revenues-jump-and-taxes-slumpDD

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 12:08

Whoever prepared the physical utilisation chart - needs a refresher course.

Scale is 40% to 80%

but all the lines are in the range 60 to 75% - I can't see them clearly because the chart is all empty space and tiny lines.

If that chart serves any purpose narrow the range so we can see what is happening !