Artilium Share Discussion Threads

[bubface] 30/11/2007 07:31

BP don't disagree on a&l,much of recent rise just short covering but doesn't make pretty reading going forward.maybe one more day of squeeze in this market then a roll over methinks though have put some index shorts on this morning.note you wisely closed out your pdx short,can i tempt you to go long yet??

[blackbear] 30/11/2007 06:09

Bp

Banks have bottomed IMHO.. re latest statement (BB.) fear has been removed somewhat for the time being.

I too have closed all shorts inc this one for now, tried to do Music Copy but it has restrictions on it ;(

Bb

[m.t.glass] 29/11/2007 22:48

bubble - you might find some suggestions on the SHORTS thread (DOWN) now and then

[bubble pricker] 29/11/2007 22:45

I have closed all my shorts bar one, IMT, and that is not going well.

I need new shorting ideas. Anyone know about other ludicrously overvalued companies? Also coming close to shorting B&B and AL again after today's bounce.

[bubface] 29/11/2007 19:49

bottled it after cools posting hey bubble,you don't need to make excuses.anyway if there's going to be a squeeze on the borrow with so much outstanding these things will jump up anyway. understand there could be some presentations in the offing too.like cool running might well jump aboard.

[bubble pricker] 29/11/2007 19:38

ARTA short closed out at 180 (opened at 250 and 350 respectively). I would have held the short longer, but my broker rang me and said they may not be able to borrow the stock much longer, and if they have to return the stock, they will need to close out the position immediately at market. So better a good profit banked then somehow yanked out of the trade.

[zakmundo] 29/11/2007 11:20

think of ARTA as Microsofts free beta-testers or microsoft's free R&D lab.

[bubble pricker] 29/11/2007 11:15

---------------------------
cool runnings - 29 Nov'07 - 08:26 - 17 of 18

The unified communications mkt by 2010 will have 100m end users (estimates of msoft). the mkt players will include microsoft, cisco, sun micro etc.
---------------------------

Revolutionary estimates of this kind have been bandied about since men have started walking erect. They usually come to nothing or happen much later. In the 80s, people talked about the paperless office, in 2000, people talked about the .com and telcom revolution and - yes - converged communications.

Also, your "slightly bullish" estimates seem to assume that Microsoft will have 30m paying end users (possible) and MS will pay a small unknown company in West London $10 per such end user per month (how likely is that?). If MS are REALLY that successful, they will have long before squeezed ARTA and other players out of the market.

[zakmundo] 29/11/2007 10:50

Artilium as the heartbeat of the products...will receive a payment for every user

I have seen similar 'license and sit back' arguments for very bullish positions in NXT and for ARM. But they all came to nought. The license revenue tends to come in later per expected, at a lower rate per user, at a higher cost per user. And the high visibility of the earnings stream then puts the license fee receiver at the mercy of payor, who will continually drive down rates, and also on a relatively low p/e.

The technology of Artilium is great. Making money out it might be tricky.

[cool runnings] 29/11/2007 08:26

Do any of you shorts understand what Arilium does? I for the record do not have a position but I am considering going long . The unified communications mkt by 2010 will have 100m end users (estimates of msoft) the mkt players will include microsoft, cisco, sun micro etc. I guess microsoft will have 30% mkt share ie 30m end users. Artilium as the heartbeat of the products ( artilium is the switch that seamlessly switches between the microsoft platforms)will receive a payment for every user depending on the standard of service this obviously varies, i understand $10 per user per month is the average artilium will receive. So in 2010 30m users paying $10 per month. 30m x $10 x 12months is $3.6bn revenues 70% margain leaves $2.5bn profit or £1.25bn put it on 20x earnings could be higher as revenues are all reocurring this company could be worth £20bn, I understand these numbers are all pie in the sky and that scenario above is a little bullish but even if you used $7 per user 10m end users 7 x 10 x12 is $840m or £420m revenues, profit of £294m on 20x is again mkt cap of £5.8bln......so to me the risk reward profile says buy not sell, they dont need any money FACT. They have nearly £7m in the bank after the recent excercise of wts... And then we have an awesome management team. As i say I am flat at the moment but has someone got the bear argument for me as I must be missing something with approx 6m shares short in a company with no freefloat?

[blackbear] 28/11/2007 23:33

Was just about to post this, yes 'steady progress' just not good enough for a stock on this rating, i smell blood...

Artilium confirms appointment of Richard Hooper as non-executive chairman




LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Artilium PLC has confirmed the appointment of
Richard Hooper, the ex-chairman of Informa PLC, as its non-executive chairman
with immediate effect, after all resolutions were passed at its AGM today.
In a statement, the AIM listed telecommunication and unified technology
solutions provider said it continues to make "steady progress".

[theoriginalface] 28/11/2007 14:39

'steady progress' - what does that mean exactly?

[bubble pricker] 28/11/2007 10:17

Wasn't there some muppet posting the other day how the institutions are in this, and how this is a good sign?

[m.t.glass] 28/11/2007 08:21

Does that indicate FROM 3.8m, to an undeclared amount below 3%? In which case how many did they sell to get below? Sold somewhere between 2.2million and 3.8million shares? (ie, between 60% and 100% of previous holding)

If it was 60% they dumped, presumably they can continue ditching the remainder without saying so, should they wish.

[blackbear] 27/11/2007 21:13

UBS are coming to thier senses at last

[bubble pricker] 27/11/2007 15:04

The down escalator is back and picking up speed. I have left my short open - not covered anything yet. Short on average from 330p. Short target 100p.

[nickcduk] 26/11/2007 16:12

Movements in ARTA tend to have little to do with the ordinary punter on the street. Its the most manipulated stock on the market. The recent bounce is puzzling but then so was the reckless heavy volume buying that took it all the way to 360p. Its a stock where you really don't want to push your luck.

[blackbear] 26/11/2007 16:05

yes some muppets think this is cheap and are averaging down o_O

[gambler99] 26/11/2007 15:48

it has a mind of it's own...moving up when the dow moves down today!

[goldstar] 23/11/2007 17:22

just a breather on the way down...

[blackbear] 23/11/2007 16:30

Looks strong around 200p , closed out some 199 and 204... back soon :D

[blackbear] 22/11/2007 19:45

Closed a 3rd of position today, secures my monthly wage in a couple of days ":D Long way to go yet, i say this is worth about 40p and that's generous.

[m.t.glass] 22/11/2007 15:20

That was from Geoff Foster's column in today's Daily Mail:

[realism] 22/11/2007 13:39

Found this in Google: Fears about its financial health sparked selling of computer services group Artilium, 81p down at 206p.

[bluefishin] 22/11/2007 12:41

Shanksaj, That philosophical rant may help explain the share behaviour.