Artilium Share Discussion Threads

[techmark] 10/1/2008 19:53

I closed my short in ARTA today, if it gets fluffled up again I may come back to it. 300p to just above 100p in a couple of months is not to bad. As for PDX, if somebody is mad enough to pay 260p I will be on the other side selling some more short.

Regards

[cool runnings] 10/1/2008 18:18

I think this stock could move soon upwards, the same shorter of these are short of pdx.l which seem to be going up very hard.

[abadan2] 10/1/2008 11:19

Hard to see this going much lower now. Probably at a level where some support will come in from bears closing and some geniune buying.

[blackbear] 09/1/2008 18:36

Goldstar I can dig that... started closing some shorts having gained the main. (65%)

[goldstar] 09/1/2008 18:05

should see a bounce at 90p imho.

[m.t.glass] 09/1/2008 12:43

And how! Looks like halving from barely a week ago :-o

[m.t.glass] 08/1/2008 08:47

tumbling again this morning

[m.t.glass] 07/1/2008 13:31

Across the pond in the US, Forbes.com has picked on Artilium in its morning summary of London share price movements. I don't know if any American funds or individuals have a stake in the company - but if they do I guess a bit more selling might kick in when New York opens an hour from now?

[m.t.glass] 07/1/2008 12:53

"..the broker said the stock has been driven to excessive levels by retail
investor speculation.."


And they must have really meant it! A target of 91p when the price opened around 190p is one hell of a chop.

[m.t.glass] 07/1/2008 09:16

9:12am -- SELL note on ARTA from Panmure Gordon



BROKERWATCH Artilium started as 'sell' by Panmure Gordon; target price 91 pence


LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Panmure Gordon has initiated coverage on
Artilium PLC with a 'sell' rating and 91 pence price target.
In a note today, the broker said it thinks Artilium has an opportunity to
leverage its telecoms software expertise and technology to address a wider
market opportunity.
But the broker said the stock has been driven to excessive levels by retail
investor speculation and, in its view, in order to attract an institutional
following, needs to move towards the broker's DCF valuation, which is a lot
lower than the current price and would put it at the upper end of comparable
multiples.
Noting the evolvement of web 2.0 technologies, Panmure Gordon said it thinks
the industry is approaching the inflection point for the uptake of 'unified
communications' services, which it says could provide a huge market opportunity
for Artilium.
It thinks the company will experience strong short-term growth and should it
gain an institutional following, the stock should better reflect its fundamental
value.
[e-mail]
hmb/ajb

[m.t.glass] 18/12/2007 11:01

On current form Zak, you could do worse than stick with this one!
Alternatively visit the Shorts thread (ticker DOWN)

[cool runnings] 10/12/2007 08:37

I hardly have a position, just trying to be helpful. This game is all new to me

[techmark] 10/12/2007 08:06

Ramp, ramp, ramp.

[cool runnings] 09/12/2007 19:47

because the financials of the partnership with Microsoft have not been announced .....yet. When they do then you guys can work it out for yourselves.. And as i said in an earlier post there will be 100 million end users in this area , the main players msoft, cisco , google, sun micro etc. To get Artilium to be used alongside one of these providers is huge ie Msoft but what happens if they get Google ( trialed as we speak) and Cisco???? This stock is going one way UP!

[techmark] 09/12/2007 12:53

Keep dreaming!

Can you explain why brokers forecasts are.

2008 Rev £6 million, pre tax loss £3 million.
2009 Rev £13 million, pre tax loss £700,000.

Somewhat different to your forecasts.

[cool runnings] 08/12/2007 20:23

Thanks techmark, we obviously have hugely differing views , why dont you speak to Robert Marcus or Tony Lynch... there is no chance of any fundraising, the recent news re microsoft will generate 4 million customers in year 2008/9 resulting in revs of £10 per month per customer, £10 x 12 months x 4 million customers. Thats £480m in revs 70% profit so £336m. Put it on 20x as all business is reacurring so a mkt cap of £7bln???? Its so easy to compare with other businesses but with respect Techmark you obviously dont understand this space! Unified communications i massive and this company controls the whole area... ask who google are using for there google phone or cisco the other main competitor to msoft.... its all artilium and all huge revenues and profits... carry on shorting

[techmark] 07/12/2007 19:19

Cool runnings,

100p is only an initial technical target.

The company has revenues of about 4.5 million, so it's trading on a price to sales ratio of a hefty 22 times. It doesn't make any profits so I can't value it on a price to earnings ratio.

Next the balance sheet is painfully thin, it's a loss making company and there is very little cash on the balance sheet to support it. The credits markets are not in the best of moods as you may have noticed. Paragon was recently quoted 11% for refunding their mortgage book! The point is credit is not cheap any more, nor is it widely available in this market, as you may have notice by the LIBOR rates. For a company that is utimately going to need access to more capital to continue its business, that is not a great position to be in.

My guess is that company either goes bust at some point, or there is heavily discounted rights issue to refund the company. My target is therefore 60p or less.

Regards

Techmark.

[cool runnings] 07/12/2007 17:59

techmark, please explain your reasoning and valuation?

[techmark] 07/12/2007 16:00

Looking for a test of the 100p low in August.

[zakmundo] 30/11/2007 12:05

I need new shorting ideas. Anyone know about other ludicrously overvalued companies?
.

PRM
GAW
AXN
DSGI
HMV

[bubface] 30/11/2007 09:42

thx,was aware of the 350 site,but will get one of my brokers to check through crest.

[cool runnings] 30/11/2007 09:14

Hi you can ask your broker to see the crest position thats on borrow, there is also an internet site that can give you the info but its for the ftse 350 and above so pdx and arta not on this list....Your broker should be able to get you the info though from the back office

[bubface] 30/11/2007 08:38

cool i have been trying to ascertain the size of the short in pdx and have struggled as it is an aim stock,any ideas how to check?

[cool runnings] 30/11/2007 08:16

Thanks for your views. I have spoken in depth regarding the short position here and now understand it to be in the region of 10m shares!!! I dont think there is anywhere near that amount of stock to borrow and think this could become horribly messy, i remember the qxl and white nile scenario and both turned horrible for the shorts, I am buying today fyi, think the squeeze could be interesting but i do think the fundamentals will shine through very shortly