Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[rockyride] 15/10/2024 07:14

Brent down over $5 this week already and we're following it like a shadow. Just need more production on the books which we should get soon from HZ6 and hopefully rise back up a bit.I know we are not expected to see it for about another 5 months but I am looking forward to seeing the new reserves report which will include all wells drilled up to 31/12/24

[mount teide] 12/10/2024 13:13

Arrow Exploration share-price performance versus Leading Colombian Independents

YTD
+53% - Arrow Exp
-6% - Geopark
-27% - Ecopetrol(NOC)
-46% - Parex Resources
-50% - Canacol

Since AXL London IPO / Oct 2021
+348% - Arrow Exploration
-42% - Ecopetrol(NOC)
-47% - Parex Resources
-48% - GeoPark
-83% - Canacol

[pastybap] 09/10/2024 15:41

Many thanks RR. Puts my question about overstretching the team to bed.

[rockyride] 09/10/2024 15:12

Just on your questions regarding drilling readiness, in Colombia (and North America) when you contract a drilling rig you are also contracting the crew that moves with the drilling rig. The crew moves with the rig, they are very familiar with the rig, and they are the most qualified to operate the rig. From a technical standpoint the drilling locations, both top hole and bottom hole, have already been picked by the company's geologist, geophysicists and engineers. From a field perspective, our current staff and consultants in Tapir have the bandwidth to operate a 2nd rig. So in short, we are very well prepared from a 2nd rig drilling perspective.

[charleysays] 08/10/2024 15:26

PB / RR - both decent observations, I imagine there are multiple competing factors and both the price of oil and spread of expertise are going to be high on any list. I did ask them about limited use of a 2nd rig and Joe said it’s most economical to use a 2nd rig when they have multiple locations planned for it due to mob / demob costs. At least we know any plans they make they have a keen eye on their finances.

[rockyride] 08/10/2024 14:07

PB - I don't think they'd be paying a rig assessment team if they were not confident they could get the staff to operate it.

[pastybap] 08/10/2024 13:24

Im not so sure that the reason this far not to run 2 rigs concurrently is financial. I think it might be more expertise, and not wanting to split up what has been a 100 per cent successful team. I wouldnt blame them for that, as any error on a horizontal in particular could prove expensive.

[rockyride] 08/10/2024 12:40

Im convinced they aspire to drill more aggressively but I get the impression they are quite nervous about the future of Brent pricing. I cant see any issue of equity in Arrow but debt finance has been mentioned but I think that was in relation to a potential 3rd rig. Let's hope POO remains above $75 (for the right reasons and not wars) and get a 2nd rig hopefully announced before the end of the year.

[charleysays] 08/10/2024 12:22

RR - I am hoping a second rig would allow the first rig to be engaged in back to back drilling of horizontals with one rig. Having reviewed the prospect matrix, there are 4 CN North horizontals on it (CNB North 1-4) and 4 labelled AB HZ (1-4), which presumably would follow on from a successful discovery at the Alberta / Baquiano drill in December, so 8 months' worth as a start.

[rockyride] 08/10/2024 11:36

HZ6 is on schedule, and we expect we will have a press release out in October. Both HZ7 and the Alberta prospect (formerly Baquiano) are still expected to be complete before the end of 2024. Brent prices have recovered over the last week. We will definitely be following the short- and long-term oil price forecast very carefully as the escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine continues. At this time, a second rig is being considered and review of available rigs continues.

[mrscruff] 08/10/2024 10:45

It is best to focus on operational progress, as oil-minded traders often face moral dilemmas. If you are one, consider donating a portion or all of your recent profits to a cause like War Child UK.

[highly geared] 08/10/2024 10:18

This is really all about building/increasing P2 reserves through to late 2026, along with getting to 10k BOPD established production. At which point, the "for sale" sign goes up. 24 months and counting...

[jailbird] 08/10/2024 10:12

Exactly , AXL will grow cash at lower oil prices regardless Lower prices could potentially push back growth plans a little planned at current oil prices

[mrscruff] 08/10/2024 09:57

Price of oil minded trader money has not gone back in to AXL because everyone knows there is an oversupply issue and Saudis if oil climbs higher could take market share lowering prices and hitting countries not obeying OPEC like Russia and other naughty countries.

All this is noise though and we should concentrate on being profitable, having growth in any oil price and being a takeover target. We should be able to get 75p regardless of oil price as long as growth is aggressive enough. The recent spike provides money to help with growth plans.

[upwego] 08/10/2024 04:54

HG - Your post can`t disagree with it, bang on the money.

we have to bare in mind also that the next reserves report is going to add significantly to the value, we have not just drilled a vertical well and, hey we have 80ft feet zone of interest.

This is 80ft of pay with 5 wells drilled horizontally all producing and paid out, I have a feeling because of wells drilled and producing proven oil the numbers are going to be pretty significant, I suppose we will have to wait until the scales are weighted properly.

Charlie says - Can you send me a link and will send both links to ir@AXL to let them know.

Cheers

[upwego] 08/10/2024 04:46

it`s also not even listed here either.

[highly geared] 07/10/2024 20:38

The sell off from 32p was directly correlated with the fall in the POO from low $80’s to low $70’s.

Whilst the POO is already back over $80 , it seems the market has got the jitters around the direction/volatility of the oil price and those that took money off the table haven’t recommitted.

Geopolitically , we seem to have opposing forces of supply threats due to the Isreal conflict v OPEC ( Saudi etc) wanting to increase output.

Logically, $70 would seem a floor ( below this , supply gets choked off in the USA due to production costs) + most of OPEC need prices above $80 longer term.

$75-$85 appears the sweet spot which validates AXL as an exceptional investment based on its net-backs and likely increased P2 reserves following the success of the 2024 drilling program to date.

[charleysays] 07/10/2024 19:30

UpWeGo - have a look on LSE, AXL is not included in the fossil fuels sector index, so you’re right that it’s off radar.

[pastybap] 07/10/2024 18:12

You light find it hits more peoples radars and filters once it sustains a market cap in excess of 100m. Thats not too far off now.

[upwego] 07/10/2024 17:50

Couple of weeks for the next well and will be over the 2024 target.

I noticed that MA in the presentation mentioned production of 5400 and rns was 5800 even that didn’t move us.

He obviously planed to mention a lower figure and also mentioning the well is increasing and then shouted an additional 400bopd.

I’m totally convinced that’s it’s just not on as many radars as most oil shares. That will change though in due course. Only a million odd traded a day and that’s on a good day.

I also noticed no massive volume after the presentation which I thought was pretty good and beat expectations when releasing the news Monday. 🤔

[charleysays] 07/10/2024 16:52

Sellers beget sellers sometimes. If any volume steps in because of the price rise in oil, then any PI selling will lessen. That’s the idea but Arrow share price is often contrarian.

[pastybap] 07/10/2024 16:51

I wouldnt be 100 per cent sure that ISAs wont be touched by this chancellor either!

[return_of_the_apeman] 07/10/2024 16:35

They could just bed&isa it in which case it would show up as two very closely matched trades

Regardless of the rest of the market - Brent is at 80.5, money is rolling in here :-)