Armadale Capital Share Discussion Threads

[the count of monte_cristo] 20/10/2022 08:32

Euclid, have you been buying in? Not being sarcastic, genuinely interested to know.

[ertugrul] 20/10/2022 08:30

It looks like little interest can move the price up very fast, good time to top up

[euclid5] 19/10/2022 10:47

They are having a field day on the LSE board of Alkemy Capital (AKL)

Phase one has a broker NPV of £490m, with capex costs of £215m for Train 1 of their asset

Currently worth around £7m cap

Full NPV of £2.2B

Commercial production due 4Q2024, 2 years time

2 brokers putting a £6 and £8 price target - With only 7 m shs in issue x £6 price target = £42m cap / £8 = £56m cap

Makes ACP and Bres look dirt cheap in comparison - but AKL is a totally different asset and therefore project. Wonder how they will get the £215 capex - and how much of the asset they will have to farm away for this

[the count of monte_cristo] 18/10/2022 12:22

SHG have been approached by a number of companies, their prime gold asset is the producing gold mine in Tanzania. Although in different commodities what it does show is that larger companies are starting to opportunistically feed on these smaller ones with solid assets/projects.

[the count of monte_cristo] 18/10/2022 02:32

Thanks for sharing, as the graphite price has turned up significantly since then one would expect that news is due soon on funding to start the mine. The Tanzanian gov are getting behind the sector, positive news.

At these current prices it's dirt cheap when considering the supply/demand issues in the years ahead as well as the lack of new mines coming onstream to meet that demand.

[euclid5] 17/10/2022 20:28

“As previously referenced, the Company has been involved in progressive funding discussions with a range of other parties in regard to moving forward with project development funding, these discussions are continuing positively.

Dated 12 Aug 2020

[the count of monte_cristo] 15/10/2022 10:35

Well, thats one reason it is at all time lows and one can buy for pennies on the dollar. Hence the massive value opportunity here, the project is years ahead of BRES and 'ready to go'. As the demand for graphite mines picks up, which it is doing, these 'mothballed' projects will become sought after.

If you don't understand this 'cycle', one can see why you are currently significatly underwater with your beloved BRES investment. I've just started buying ACP, seems excellent value at these levels.

AURA was in a similar situation a few years back, everything looked bleak and nobody wanted to touch the stock or the uranium story. Except people like Sprott and Rick Rule who then made a fortune when the uranium story came back in.

Anyone buying at these prices should be buying with the realisation they are lookinh forward, at a graphite demand story which is quire different from the last 2-4 years. Something you yourself are keenly posting about almost daily.

[euclid5] 15/10/2022 09:26

I am shocked that they haven't been able to get a JV partner / funding for over 2 years since they released their DFS (June 2020) for 25% of the asset they have

So something doesn't seem right - not saying BRES is the be all and end all - Uganda has it risks too and they are 2.5 years away from production - But their asset is far more valuable. Being just 1% of their asset is worth a similar amount to ACP's with 25%

Let's see if they manage to get a Chinese investor before YE, and if ACP manage to pull something off with the 2 NDA's they signed back in 2020. I guess nothing has/will come of that, as it wouldn't of taken over 2 years to agree a completion on the deal. So maybe they have seen / noticed something about the BoD or the asset that doesn't tick all their boxes

[the count of monte_cristo] 15/10/2022 02:12

Thanks for sharing and bringing to investors intention just how under valued ACP is and the mining situation in Tanzania which has a long history of mining, SHG have been there a long time producing gold, as just one example.

Uganda is somewhat behind Tanzania with it's mining industry due to corruption, poor government, lack of critical infrastructure, etc.




News on Tanzania's graphite industry which is currently booming

[euclid5] 14/10/2022 21:02

The year under review shows that Mahenge Liandu continues to represent an exciting opportunity for the Group. As identified in the going concern note to the Directors' Report, the Company's ability to achieve its strategy with respect to the project is dependent on the further fundraising. 

The mining regulation changes in Tanzania are still being evaluated, however they seem to have minimal impact on investment in graphite mining. The Group continues to monitor the implementation of the changes to evaluate and mitigate sovereign risks.

H

Mining in Tanzania: Effects of the mining legal framework overhaul

[the count of monte_cristo] 14/10/2022 16:26

The same reason why the CEO of BRES is going on about higher graphite prices and how it will one day help BRES secure funding, years down the line because their project isn't ready to go like ACP. If ACP with a higher grade and lower capex can't get funding then BRES have no chance:)

[euclid5] 14/10/2022 16:08

Thanks for the above notes

However what was the outcome of the below - still no funding news since over 2 years ago - why is that?

15 June 2020

Armadale Capital Plc (‘ArmadaleR17; or ‘the Company’)

Project Finance Update

Armadale Capital plc (LON: ACP), the AIM quoted investment group focused on natural resource projects in Africa, is pleased to report on progress with respect to project finance initiatives ahead of construction for Phase 1 of its 80,000 tpa nameplate capacity Mahenge Liandu Graphite Project (‘Mahenge Liandu’ or the ‘Project’;) located in the world-class Mahenge Graphite province in Tanzania.

Following on from the results of its updated Feasibility Study delivered on 5 June 2020, the Company announces that it is now under NDA with two separate parties with the aim of advancing project level funding discussions with a view to bringing in an investment partner to progress through to mine construction.

As part of specific workstreams running concurrent to the recently delivered DFS, and in increasing intensity since its completion, Armadale and its technical and financial advisors have been engaging with a number of potential strategic investors or possible joint venture partners.

[the count of monte_cristo] 14/10/2022 11:15

Thanks, you should also compare the following...

Grade (As grade is king in mining) - ACP's is better.
Capex - ACP's is just 38m USD....compared to US$62M for BRES
Stage - ACP are at the 'Permitted' stage and more advanced than BRES, they have just started the DFS
Size of resources - I wouldn't get too carried away with what BRES are saying, ACP also have large upscale potential

Actually, if you want to compare then you should compare ACP to Blackrock:)

[euclid5] 14/10/2022 11:06

Acp Npv on 25% is $430m
100% = $1.72B

Bres NPV $480m on 2%
10%= $2.4B

Although doubt they will ever be producing at 100%. But shows the huge difference in Nov values based on the percentage of the mines based on Mov values

[the count of monte_cristo] 14/10/2022 01:40

I added 100k at 1.7p before close.

[goodday1] 13/10/2022 12:33

What about the reality of the decreasing SP?Asking for a friend.Everything happens eventually & including our end!LolGl all

[the count of monte_cristo] 11/10/2022 16:00

Some of the other graphite stocks moving. First stirrings of the realisation of the impending demand for graphite.

[scottwhetton] 11/10/2022 12:52

Prob is mate alot have filled at much higher prices than this, long road back from here

[goodday1] 11/10/2022 12:31

Fill your boots, as someone use to say here.LolGl all

[the count of monte_cristo] 09/10/2022 06:33

If that's true then how do you explain...

1) The recent deals completed in Tanzania by other graphite companies, see my post from last week.

2) The news from fellow graphite company BRES.

Recession in the West, China, India and other places will still grow, the demand for graphite will continue to outstrip supply.

[cocopah] 08/10/2022 09:23

What are people thinking here? Maybe something by 2025, given the global recession next year?

[andyview] 07/10/2022 15:05

I sense a Friday afternoon bump ...

gla