Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[kaos3] 11/5/2020 08:53

3 years development + 2-3 years repayment (to get some left over cash for the operational impovements, step out drilling etc)

[bigglesbingham] 11/5/2020 08:48

Not sure where your getting 6 years from. Tarsvan which is looking at 30000 ounces could be in production back end 2022 possibly 2023? Loan repayment done end 2023? The cash/profit from kiziltepe 23% profit would be around $5m per annum. Then tarsvan contribution The sale of external assets say $5 mil on conservative side. But the sweetener to the share price would be positive progression and results from salinbas. That's without taking into account the use of the $25m (after$5m divi) .

[1candc] 11/5/2020 08:47

It strikes me that at this juncture Nigel Somerville's somewhat skewed logic (apparently to suit his own investment dilemma!) to top slice a share that holds such imminent potential is counter productive to any rational investor. He talks of waiting to see how everything develops before buying in again, well good luck with that because as all these things unfold the share price will be way over the horizon by then. With the spread on this share normally wider than the Grand Canyon you would have to be fortunate with your timing to make even a modest amount. A curious tip that talks Ariana up just to smack it down again in the same breath, and people pay to hear this contradictory sermon?

[kaos3] 11/5/2020 08:30

plasy - what cash would we have to spend first on those assets and what is the min summ that we can expect to get after we sell them to a future JV is what I am asking - basically

as that is all cash intake (after receiving 30 mil) that I can see atm on a known predictable basis

and - will we get any management fee from the future JV on a regular basis as AAU or will some persons get paid as privates to work for the new JV?


will they charge them their expertise? how much? who gets the cash? AAU or the persons working on the project - as 2% of the yearly management fee charged by AAU to JV would make a huge difference imho to us

[plasybryn] 11/5/2020 08:28

Shortarm: 21301 Kerim said this on Sat.
Will our other 100% assets at Karakavak, Ivrindi & Kizilcukur all fall within the new J.V. Deal if it goes ahead please?
05-09 15:06 Kerim:
The other assets (e.g. Kizilcukur) have also been considered as part of the enlarged JV and have formed apart of the DD by the incoming party (though to a lesser extent understandably). The MoU considers their eventual sale in to the enlarged JV.

[kaos3] 11/5/2020 08:26

yes - and that is all. for many years. unless they sell more of their assets. which must be drilled first financed by part of the 30 mil.

considering the most value is in the JV - we can basically forget future JV as a source of cash flow and we are on our (smaller) own with the 30 mil for the next 5-6 years???

[shortarm] 11/5/2020 08:19

Again, The funding for salinbas will be sorted by the new company as will at least 8 million in drilling! (IIRC).AAU can use the 30 million totally outside the JV!!

[temujiin] 11/5/2020 08:17

Also any "cash eating" projects will only need 23.% of AAU money as that wld represent our holding if the deal is done.

[bigglesbingham] 11/5/2020 08:15

My point is that that situation is particular to Somerville who has a high weighting in AAU. His advice to top slice seems arbitrary to all holders which is where the issues lie.

[bigglesbingham] 11/5/2020 08:09

If the deal goes through the cash eating projects will have finance arranged by the new JV partner and these debts would only have to be repaid when mines start producing so shouldn't be a drain on AAU which names the deal so attractive.

[dixi] 11/5/2020 08:05

Thank you for all the invaluable feedback. Greatly appreciated. Now at 3.5 bid, will top-slicing come into play to cut the rise yet again. Becomes something of a self-fulfilling prophecy that one!

[kaos3] 11/5/2020 08:05

first a big thanks.

as I expeted - most of the cash generated by the future JV will be used to pay off the future JV debts and operating costs. Then some I HOPE will be paid out as a REGULAR divi to AAU (I hope that there as a minimal summ of obligatory yearly dididend to be paid to the holding Co so the holding Co does not ask their shareholders to finance their operating costs).

planned projects are huge cash eating projects. drilling, building a mine, step out drilling etc. few years of cash eating and then few years of debt repayments.

BUT

thanks to your reports - AAU has an option to sell non JV assets to the JV. and that is completely new to me and makes me optimistic - Kerim will get a source of cash for him to play with and possibly to us. 30 mil that AAU gets will be used as extra divi and on drilling of what we have - so we can sell it to the JV.

Is there "a list" of the assets that can be sold to the future JV? at what terms (3 times drilling costs?)? what would be a total estimated minimum summ (we do not the upside till it is drilled in full) that we can hope for?

this is how I see it atm - and please tear me apart as you wish - so I will improve my picture

[mad foetus] 11/5/2020 07:56

I get Nigel's point. My biggest holding is AAZ and I will sell some at some point at a price far below what I regard as fair value simply because it is too big a part of my portfolio. When something multibag that's what happens.

[shortarm] 11/5/2020 07:50

It's outside of the deal - so they have the opportunity to sell it in.

[plasybryn] 11/5/2020 07:49

Bloggers often complain that our highly respected City Analysts, Panmure Gordon, are too conservative but at least their target price is far better that the one Nigel Somerville is communicating. Surely he isn’t doing his followers any favours. P.G. gave us a valuation matrix which only goes up to gold at $1600. Even so with an 8% discount the target price is 5.17p.
The Note gave a target valuation of 4.37p, but this was based on $1475 gold !
The Note takes no account of the proposed deal which I know Kieron Hodgson is very positive about.
Nigel's top slice at 3.5p is a disgrace imo. especially as it is based on his own portfolio mgmt.
I really hope readers fully understand that.

[plasybryn] 11/5/2020 07:43

And must add value to the Deal. Surely has to be adjusted to take account of this?

[shortarm] 11/5/2020 07:39

This news is twice as good as you might think.....(It's 100 percent owned resource)

[renniks2016] 11/5/2020 07:28

Thats another year added to LOM. :)

[temujiin] 11/5/2020 07:08

Update on a small but important source of gold and silver for Kizil mine.


KIZILCUKUR JORC RESOURCE UPDATE

Ariana Resources plc ("Ariana" or "the Company"), the AIM-listed exploration and development company operating in Europe, is pleased to announce an update of its JORC compliant Mineral Resource Estimate for the Kizilcukur Project ("Kizilcukur" or "the Project"). Kizilcukur is 100% owned by Ariana through its subsidiary Galata Madencilik San. ve Tic. Ltd. in Turkey.

Highlights:

-- Global Mineral Resource Estimate is revised to c. 21,100 oz gold (Au) and 0.62 Moz silver (Ag) contained metal on three main veins.

-- Significant improvement in resource category and grade, with 85% of the tonnage in Measured and Indicated (M+I) categories: 218,317 t @ 2.72 g/t Au and 77.04 g/t Ag.

-- 46% of the M+I tonnage is located within the higher-grade Zeki Main Vein, with a grade of 3.62 g/t Au and 82.54 g/t Ag, upon which trial mining operations have commenced.

-- Company is considering options to develop this satellite deposit as a source of ore for the Kiziltepe processing plant.

Dr. Kerim Sener, Managing Director, commented:

"This is a significant improvement over the previous resource estimate, which integrates the latest drilling data and geological modelling. Most of the resource now sits within the lower risk Measured and Indicated categories, in comparison to the previous estimate which contained only Indicated and Inferred Resources. This is largely the result of the in-fill diamond drilling that was completed on the higher-grade Zeki Vein in early 2019.

"While the initial plans for the Project comprise development across up to three shallow open pits, there is further exploration potential which has been defined in deeper drilling on the Zeki Vein and along strike of the other veins. However, further work would need to be completed before this potential is better understood. No further drilling is planned on the Project until full-scale mining operations are able to be established.

"In the meantime, we intend to continue with trial mining at the site and to commence an initial bulk processing trial at the Kiziltepe processing plant when operational conditions permit."

[konil] 11/5/2020 04:10

thanks for all the info sharing. as a newbie it really helps with getting up to speed. cheers.

[a.fewbob] 10/5/2020 23:00

Wake me up when we get to 20p.

[bigglesbingham] 10/5/2020 22:59

Agree with that

[a.fewbob] 10/5/2020 22:58

Run your winners cut your losers.

Top slicing at this stage seems stupid. The risk reward on a stock like this means you’d be stupid to invest for a paltry gain.

If you invest in a basket and of penny shares and you top sliced on small gains with your winners. The chances are your losers would destroy any overall portfolio gain!!

[bigglesbingham] 10/5/2020 22:51

The top slicing rational is understandable in his situation although I've chosen not to follow that course of action but to assume his followers are in similar situation regarding the weighting of holding is somewhat strange. Basically the article states it's a cracking investment and anyone with a balanced portfolio should clearly no way top slice. Also to say let's buy more once AAU declare actual progress in relation to tarsvan, deal etc is very strange because surely price would have jumped by then? Again hats off for discovering AAU but some of advice is contradictory. Hopefully new investors will buy on back of the underlying message. Overall I'd prefer the coverage we are getting from shareprophets than not so I may be raising concerns regarding the advice but we are getting exposure.