Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bigglesbingham] 11/5/2020 08:09

If the deal goes through the cash eating projects will have finance arranged by the new JV partner and these debts would only have to be repaid when mines start producing so shouldn't be a drain on AAU which names the deal so attractive.

[dixi] 11/5/2020 08:05

Thank you for all the invaluable feedback. Greatly appreciated. Now at 3.5 bid, will top-slicing come into play to cut the rise yet again. Becomes something of a self-fulfilling prophecy that one!

[kaos3] 11/5/2020 08:05

first a big thanks.

as I expeted - most of the cash generated by the future JV will be used to pay off the future JV debts and operating costs. Then some I HOPE will be paid out as a REGULAR divi to AAU (I hope that there as a minimal summ of obligatory yearly dididend to be paid to the holding Co so the holding Co does not ask their shareholders to finance their operating costs).

planned projects are huge cash eating projects. drilling, building a mine, step out drilling etc. few years of cash eating and then few years of debt repayments.

BUT

thanks to your reports - AAU has an option to sell non JV assets to the JV. and that is completely new to me and makes me optimistic - Kerim will get a source of cash for him to play with and possibly to us. 30 mil that AAU gets will be used as extra divi and on drilling of what we have - so we can sell it to the JV.

Is there "a list" of the assets that can be sold to the future JV? at what terms (3 times drilling costs?)? what would be a total estimated minimum summ (we do not the upside till it is drilled in full) that we can hope for?

this is how I see it atm - and please tear me apart as you wish - so I will improve my picture

[mad foetus] 11/5/2020 07:56

I get Nigel's point. My biggest holding is AAZ and I will sell some at some point at a price far below what I regard as fair value simply because it is too big a part of my portfolio. When something multibag that's what happens.

[shortarm] 11/5/2020 07:50

It's outside of the deal - so they have the opportunity to sell it in.

[plasybryn] 11/5/2020 07:49

Bloggers often complain that our highly respected City Analysts, Panmure Gordon, are too conservative but at least their target price is far better that the one Nigel Somerville is communicating. Surely he isn’t doing his followers any favours. P.G. gave us a valuation matrix which only goes up to gold at $1600. Even so with an 8% discount the target price is 5.17p.
The Note gave a target valuation of 4.37p, but this was based on $1475 gold !
The Note takes no account of the proposed deal which I know Kieron Hodgson is very positive about.
Nigel's top slice at 3.5p is a disgrace imo. especially as it is based on his own portfolio mgmt.
I really hope readers fully understand that.

[plasybryn] 11/5/2020 07:43

And must add value to the Deal. Surely has to be adjusted to take account of this?

[shortarm] 11/5/2020 07:39

This news is twice as good as you might think.....(It's 100 percent owned resource)

[renniks2016] 11/5/2020 07:28

Thats another year added to LOM. :)

[temujiin] 11/5/2020 07:08

Update on a small but important source of gold and silver for Kizil mine.


KIZILCUKUR JORC RESOURCE UPDATE

Ariana Resources plc ("Ariana" or "the Company"), the AIM-listed exploration and development company operating in Europe, is pleased to announce an update of its JORC compliant Mineral Resource Estimate for the Kizilcukur Project ("Kizilcukur" or "the Project"). Kizilcukur is 100% owned by Ariana through its subsidiary Galata Madencilik San. ve Tic. Ltd. in Turkey.

Highlights:

-- Global Mineral Resource Estimate is revised to c. 21,100 oz gold (Au) and 0.62 Moz silver (Ag) contained metal on three main veins.

-- Significant improvement in resource category and grade, with 85% of the tonnage in Measured and Indicated (M+I) categories: 218,317 t @ 2.72 g/t Au and 77.04 g/t Ag.

-- 46% of the M+I tonnage is located within the higher-grade Zeki Main Vein, with a grade of 3.62 g/t Au and 82.54 g/t Ag, upon which trial mining operations have commenced.

-- Company is considering options to develop this satellite deposit as a source of ore for the Kiziltepe processing plant.

Dr. Kerim Sener, Managing Director, commented:

"This is a significant improvement over the previous resource estimate, which integrates the latest drilling data and geological modelling. Most of the resource now sits within the lower risk Measured and Indicated categories, in comparison to the previous estimate which contained only Indicated and Inferred Resources. This is largely the result of the in-fill diamond drilling that was completed on the higher-grade Zeki Vein in early 2019.

"While the initial plans for the Project comprise development across up to three shallow open pits, there is further exploration potential which has been defined in deeper drilling on the Zeki Vein and along strike of the other veins. However, further work would need to be completed before this potential is better understood. No further drilling is planned on the Project until full-scale mining operations are able to be established.

"In the meantime, we intend to continue with trial mining at the site and to commence an initial bulk processing trial at the Kiziltepe processing plant when operational conditions permit."

[konil] 11/5/2020 04:10

thanks for all the info sharing. as a newbie it really helps with getting up to speed. cheers.

[a.fewbob] 10/5/2020 23:00

Wake me up when we get to 20p.

[bigglesbingham] 10/5/2020 22:59

Agree with that

[a.fewbob] 10/5/2020 22:58

Run your winners cut your losers.

Top slicing at this stage seems stupid. The risk reward on a stock like this means you’d be stupid to invest for a paltry gain.

If you invest in a basket and of penny shares and you top sliced on small gains with your winners. The chances are your losers would destroy any overall portfolio gain!!

[bigglesbingham] 10/5/2020 22:51

The top slicing rational is understandable in his situation although I've chosen not to follow that course of action but to assume his followers are in similar situation regarding the weighting of holding is somewhat strange. Basically the article states it's a cracking investment and anyone with a balanced portfolio should clearly no way top slice. Also to say let's buy more once AAU declare actual progress in relation to tarsvan, deal etc is very strange because surely price would have jumped by then? Again hats off for discovering AAU but some of advice is contradictory. Hopefully new investors will buy on back of the underlying message. Overall I'd prefer the coverage we are getting from shareprophets than not so I may be raising concerns regarding the advice but we are getting exposure.

[1candc] 10/5/2020 22:37

Basing his own investment dilemma as rationale for others to top slice ?
plus 'Let’s not price in the upside until it actually happens!' i.e don't buy until the shares have gone up?! Curious

[bigglesbingham] 10/5/2020 21:21

AIM-listed Turkish gold-miner Ariana (AAU) has announced that the bank loan to build its Kiziltepe plant has now been fully paid of – all on time and according to schedule. Thus all the cashflow from the Kiziltepe plant will now be available for reinvestment or distribution to Ariana and its Joint-venture partner Proccea. Great news on all fronts – much as expected, but head honcho Kerim Sener and his team have done really well. But there is more good news......The formal text of today's RNS focussed on the settling of the bank debt. But Kerim Sener was further quoted as follows:......our new exploration drilling programme which commenced late last week at Kiziltepe is proceeding as planned. This programme was designed to follow-up on the successful deep drilling which we completed at Arzu South last year. We are pleased to report that vein mineralisation has been encountered in the first of the new drill holes, which terminated at about 200m depth, demonstrating the vertical continuity of the vein system as predicted. This bodes well for the future development of the Kiziltepe Mine, as we consider its transition to underground operations in the future.That adds to my excitement: Arzu South has been pretty much harvested at the surface and the gold grades from its replacement pits are a little lower. If there is more gold underground and it mirrors what was at the surface then not only will Ariana be able to extend the life of mine, but the amount of gold available to be produced will be all the greater. Ching-ching. And with the bank paid off, one might be able to see where the capital cost of establishing underground operations comes from.We were also offered encouragement with regard to Tavsan in yesteray's announcement that the proposed corporate action involving a third party, $30 million in cash to Ariana and funding for developments over at Salinbas (Eastern Turkey) has seen a further extension of the project review period to the end of June.This is hardly a surprise, given the locked-down state of the world, but we are told that:This provides additional time to enable an even more thorough review by the Parties and coincides with significant new project developments, including the revised Resource Estimate for Kiziltepe, announced last week, and revisions to our resource for Tavsan which remains work in progressWith a higher gold price to factor in, one wonders whether Ariana might be able to get an improved deal from the details we already know, in the light of the above. I guess we will find out in the fullness of time, but I would have thought the mystery third party would have run a mile already if the deal did not stack up for it.But the encouragement was: In addition, at Tavsan we are in the process of finalising the development schedule for what is expected to be our second mine in Turkey.OK, expected is not the same as in the bag but Kerim Sener is not normal this forthright unless it is probably the case. So I expect news of what they intend at Tavsan with great interest, noting previous comments that bringing Tavsan into production would see gold production at Kiziltepe head up to 50,000 a year.With the shares, which briefly popped through my 3.5p top-slice target (until the proposed corporate action gets further) last week, now down at 3.15p the stance is strong hold but if you can pick some up at sub-3p (the chance may just occur in this wild and volatile market) then you certainly should, with a short term target of at least 4p. Longer term, if the gold market goes the way I expect and Kerim Sener delivers, you could be looking at a multiple of the current price.

[risa5] 10/5/2020 21:04

Biggles,

Can you post that article from 1st of May by Somerville,


Ariana – Bank paid off and more excitements: still a multibagger from here

TIA

[soulsauce] 10/5/2020 20:46

Thanks bigglesbingham.
I think taking such a risk off approach is wrong for Ariana.
There is plenty of rubbish on Aim where taking such a stance would be right but not this one.
Doesn't do us justice at all.

[risa5] 10/5/2020 20:41

How come there is no mention of $30m, the potential dividend etc.

[charles clore] 10/5/2020 20:37

Agreed biggles. His recommendation seems both selfish and misguided. Basically he seems to be abusing his powerful position and that is wrong.

[bigglesbingham] 10/5/2020 19:42

My argument would be that people invest in AIM stocks for potential multi bagger upside based of proven track record and potential opportunities. This article could excite new investors with little or no exposure but I personally think it's wrong to recommend too slice because he has what he considers to be over exposured in his SIPP.

[bigglesbingham] 10/5/2020 19:38

Just read article from Somerville. AAU represents too much of his SIPP value therefore recommending small top slice at 3.5p but then states: .... As for where we could be in, say, 2 years, Ariana could be sitting on 23.5% (following the corporate action seeing completion) of around 50,000 oz of gold production and Salibas could be heading for a mine to produce a further 50,000 oz. With historical production costs of around $500 per ounce and with the gold price having headed through perhaps $2000 or $2500 that is a lot of cash flow. Regular dividends could be on the menu by then, Ariana could easily have coughed up a special dividend on the back of the corporate deal and some interesting new assets in or around Turkey could have come to the fore. Oh, and the Cyprus project should have shown some decent drilling results too. What would that lot be worth in a raging gold bull market with the bulletin boards going crazy? 10p? 20p? More? But that is all for the future and I stand by my rather boring advice for now. Let's not price in the upside until it actually happens!