Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[gerrystewart] 09/12/2019 07:18

Dr. Doom,

paradoxically, I hope you are correct!! I'd like to get some more at the sort of prices you suggest.

[carcosa] 09/12/2019 07:13

Seems perfectly practical thing to do IMO. For the sake of a very cheap re-drilling exercise compared to the project cost its a no-brainer to do.

"let’s hope the results are the same." Or better. Although it is quite possible, I guess that the actual results will not be RNS'ed

[supercity] 09/12/2019 07:07

I understand due diligence is required but to re-examine the holes already drilled and check the results for yourself - seems a bit OTT, let's hope the results are the same.

[dearg doom] 08/12/2019 18:49

Replying to Gerrystewart.

The market showed bid/offer 2.2p/2.4p all day, Friday. On Friday, afternoon, very much like you, I was testing the market in both directions.

Given the real market price at that time was 2.2p/2.23p does normally suggest the bid price is the part, that is under pressure with low volume bid support.

Would not be too surprised to see bid/offer 2.1p/2.25p on Monday.

Do remember 500,000 shares is still small change for liquidity purposes. Not being able to sell more than 10,000 at 2p was terrible.

Thank you for sharing your experience. Hopefully, you are correct!

[bigglesbingham] 08/12/2019 17:45

Just had time to view the presentation , I found it to be an excellent summary of their current position and you can tell that kerim is extremely excited about the future. Even if the MOU doesn't go ahead the future is bright.

[bigglesbingham] 08/12/2019 17:39

I personally don't agree that all surplus cash be returned to shareholders. Some is via a special dividend but the bulk should be used to build the companies assets surely. The shareprice reduction is an interesting point because if the company paid all surplus cash $30m as a special dividend then the shareprice would become negative because the market cap is currently less than the cash they would receive. A point to take from this is how cheap AAU actually is based on their current situation.

[gerrystewart] 08/12/2019 17:35

Dr, Doom,

your experience on Friday was the exact opposite of mine. In mid-afternoon, I couldn't get a quote for 250,000 no matter how many times I tried and yet was given a quote on a sell of same amount (can't remember what it was primarily because I had no intention of selling). This may have been because of the 500,000 trade that went through around the same time.

[erro] 08/12/2019 17:22

Irrespective of any dividend policy going forward, Ariana should return any surplus cash if the deal goes through. Or I fired they could do an aggressive share buy back. Otherwise the money would inevitable get squandered. One of the problems with a special dividend would be the effect on the share price. As soon as they go ex divi the share price should fall by the same amount. Given that the share options are exercisable on 31/1/21 above 1.55 there is incentive for the directors not to pay out a special dividend. Maybe there should be a dispensation to allow them to cash in their options earlier. That would make sense. Any views?

[bigglesbingham] 08/12/2019 14:25

They have said its there intention to pay dividends annually . It was in a proactive investors interview recently. Kerim mentioned it would probably be when tarsvan came on stream however with this recent proposed restructure I'd anticipate a special dividend of between 0.3 - 0.5p followed by annual dividends thereafter.

[thanksamillion] 08/12/2019 11:57

My 2P's worth.

I am hoping for dividends being declared on an ongoing basis.

Should the announced deal go through and a large one off dividend declared, but no formal announcement that it is the Boards intention to declare dividends (of any size) annually therafter, all that would result is a short term spike followed by a similar sized retreat. Regular future divis would mean a smaller initial divi obviously, but I believe most AAU investors are also invested for the gains to be had over the next few years as the company grows and exploration yields results.

This need to be handled very carefully.

[dearg doom] 07/12/2019 16:24

The positives are mostly known. The risks to the downside looking mimimal.

Despite this, the order book was heavily weighted to the downside on Friday.

I could buy on Friday half a million shares at 2.23p, while at the same time could only sell 10,000 shares with a market live price of 2.2p.

Suspect closer to 2p level may be found shortly without a magazine or tipsheet highlighting Ariana's prospects.

Happier to acquire more Ariana shares even cheaper, if offered in later days. The risk reward at a lower share price becomes even more favourable for 2020.

A modest percentage of anyones portfolo should only be invested in Ariana. Sellers should be given respect for their position being more plausible then our own. So don't bet the ranch!

[plasybryn] 07/12/2019 15:08

5p must be nailed!!
I think it is fair to say AIM miners haven't generally done that well this last 6 months and I suspect the uncertainty over BREXIT & now the General election is causing unusual nervousness. When I look at Ariana and see what they have reported recently I find it amazing (inconceivable) that the value gap just gets bigger & bigger. A Market Cap. of c. £24m now covering six main threads.
1. Highly efficient low cost operating mine at Kiziltepe - gold & silver
2. Four highly prospective prospects in the Hot Gold Corridor with 1m ozs of gold (JORC) and an exploration target of 2.7m
3.Three other 100% owned prospects in Western Turkey
4. Second producing gold mine at Tavsan just two years from production.
5. Cyprus - significant exploration & development potential.
6. Cash in the bank plus other investments. Mindful that the $33m CAPEX loan is all but cleared, free cash flow is going to increase significantly. A dividend strategy looks highly likely.
I don't find it hard to put estimated values on each of these six threads arriving at a very conservative S.P. of 5p plus. Anyone else care to have a go?
The new third party is happy to pay us $5m for 17% of Salinbas which grossed up to 100% values this asset at $30m alone. They also value 53% of Zenit (Kiziltepe & Tavsan) at $50m and are happy to invest a lot more into Salinbas to get it into production. Compare that to our current £24m Market Cap.
I really don't believe this undervaluation can continue much longer. There must come a time when investors realise the growth opportunity. Increasing the Resource/Reserve at Kiziltepe and Tavsan and extending the Life of mines should add further real value and de-risk us. That work should be sorted and confirmed during H1-2020. Then there is the potential to announce that underground mines are feasible at Arzu South & North. Once drilling really gets going again at Salinbas (May onwards) there is further potential for surprises.
I'm very excited about this next 6 months and can't wait to see it all unfold.

[soulsauce] 06/12/2019 16:40

I hear ya bigglesbingham, just pulling your leg.

Have a good weekend all ;-)

[bigglesbingham] 06/12/2019 16:37

Very much in trouble soul . I only deal verbally just don't like leaving things to technology . And I did MBA thesis at Manchester business school on information technology and gaining competitive advantage !! Go figure!

[soulsauce] 06/12/2019 16:22

Lol bigglesbingham if you don't feel comfortable setting a limit buy a few clicks below the current offer when you hold more than 3% then you are in trouble.

[charles clore] 06/12/2019 15:57

biggles - thought you might have had a limit buy order open at all times.

[risa5] 06/12/2019 15:52

2.155-2.37

[shortarm] 06/12/2019 15:44

Hopefully the nice seller will arrange another one for us!Nightmare that they leave the spread so large!

[davidspringbank] 06/12/2019 15:42

biggles, well done for your RNS.

[carcosa] 06/12/2019 15:27

30 min video:

(Try again)



Kerim Sener presents to investors at the Proactive Mining Capital conference.

[davidspringbank] 06/12/2019 13:30

The "powers that be" want a cashless society so they can keep track of how we spend our fiat money. They want to know everything about our spending and saving habits. Control freaks. It may work with the modern generation, but they can forget about anyone else. With the move to negative interest rates, we'd be better off keeping our stash under the mattress, as long as no one else can get at it. It's convenient to be able to pay by card so we don't have to carry much cash around with us. But you have to watch when you go to a "hole-in-the-wall" Cash Line machine in case you are robbed by nimble teenagers. In the last 100 years, the value of the currency has reduced by around 98% - 99% through devaluation. Ditto the American dollar. So there isn't very much more to go before it's totally worthless. Gold or silver has been a store of value for thousands of years. It cannot be devalued by politicians or bankers. What's more, it is accepted anywhere in the world as a premier currency.

[swallowsflysouth] 06/12/2019 13:00

I hate swiping my card with no security for small amounts. I asked if i could have a card that you had to put the pin in to use, security was how reasoned. However you cannot have one that you can only use with a pin number on. I do think older people are likely to be mugged just to pinched their cards which can be swiped and use why they lie in a hospital queue in A & E waiting for their injuries to be attended to.

[charles clore] 06/12/2019 10:30

In my opinion the general public is not ready for a cashless society. I live in a Seaside retirement town where the age profile is older than average. Every time I go shopping in my local supermarket I see probably a third of shoppers at the cashout paying by cash. I don't know what these banks have in mind as an alternative but it would have to be simple. Cryptos are too complicated at their current stage of evolution to be understood, let alone used, by the majority. Gold and silver would be better alternatives but the manipulation has to stop and the metals need to be allowed to find their true value.

[soulsauce] 06/12/2019 10:14

Casless society, it is already here mabel by stealth. I have always liked cash but even find myself now not relying on cash but the sweep of my plastic card over a reader.

I am not sure how it will ever effect gold though as there has to be a value in something somewhere.

A cashless society worries me much less than a another financial meltdown.