Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bigglesbingham] 29/6/2020 09:51

Think this increase was anticipated by the new potential partner and I'd assume they expect gold to go a hell of a lot higher. That's why I think the deal is going to go ahead but I don't think it will be renegotiated because the increase was built into everyone's expectations at the time.

[soulsauce] 29/6/2020 09:51

C word kirbs, I take it you mean communication but could also stand for credibility.

[kirbs4] 29/6/2020 09:44

All comes back to the c word. All the positivity behind this company is well known, so are the prospects, so is the fact their with or without JV we are sitting pretty.But in the same way that when we were down at 1.2p complaining that the fundamentals were so far detatched from reality, you can build trust by being open with communication and that has been an issue here in the past, whether it was a sufficient but not crystal clear rns, not selling the positives enough, taking shareholder feedback and hiring yellow jersey etc, it has been much better imo for around 2 years until April when they made what in my opinion was an amateurish error in waiting until the final day to announce a TWO month extension. I certainly felt a little sour at that point, and a bit taken for a ride. There is no way that even two weeks earlier they didnt know there would be a need for another extension given it was 2 months.This is my fear now too, that tomorrow they do the same thing. I have a feeling the share price will take a significant dip were thia to happen by thats just my opinion.

[1candc] 29/6/2020 09:38

Good post Plasybryn, when the MOU was announced on 25th November 2019 the gold price was $1,453 per ounce, today as we know it is $1,760 an uplift of $307 per ounce = 21% since the announcement, I imagine that is a compelling reason for the proposed partner to stay aboard and certainly strengthens AAU's hand in any negotiation.

[bigglesbingham] 29/6/2020 09:32

Absolutely but within the timescales promised. Ie end June. Don't get me wrong I'd have liked to know one way or other weeks ago but who knows what been discussed last week or even today?

[plasybryn] 29/6/2020 09:24

Forgive me, but I've been trying to think how Kerim might be seeing matters and why he might be relaxed time wise regarding our new prospective partner.
Let's say he expects gold to rise in value to c. $4000 per oz over the next few years. I certainly do. During that timescale he will increase production from the existing J.V.with the second mine at Tavsan coming on line in 2022 from 20,000 ozs p.a. to circa 50,000 ozs p.a. Could even be a bit more than that perhaps. That means 25,000 ozs for us. Let's take off say $700 per oz AISC (on the high side) and we have a profit of circa £2600 per oz ($4000-$700=$3300 coverts to £2671).
Multiple that by 25,000 and you have a bottom line profit of £65m. Divide that by the number of shares in issue, namely 1060m and you have EPS of 6p. You decide what multiple the valuation should be on, but Kerim has 19.56m shares so that's a fair wad. And that's before he develops the highly prospective Hot Gold Corridor which could easily double that wealth or more over the next decade. Then there is unknown Cyprus. Everyone is getting very bullish on copper with the electric revolution. As such at 44 years old I can see that he has time on his side and a very nice future mapped out. Basically he can afford to take his time to align outcomes with a positive re-rating of gold, silver & copper. I know Michael is 57, but perhaps he will be happy with nice dividend payouts.
I must admit Kerim is sitting in a very nice position. He has a brilliant future with the existing set up, but if he chooses to bring in the new partner and accelerate everything, he knows the timing of production in the Hot Gold Corridor will be aligned with high gold prices probably giving him more wealth and a great deal of credibility and status to go with it. Remember the RNS words. "J.V. capable of unlocking the full value of our assets in Turkey" - "become one of the premier gold mining companies operating in Turkey". At my age I hope he goes for the deal, but as we've all said we are in a win win situation here. Good luck

[dixi] 29/6/2020 09:08

Fair comment bb, but then telling their shareholders would not go amiss, that being the case.

[bigglesbingham] 29/6/2020 09:06

Think they already said DD went well. If it's going ahead and the delay is thrashing out fine detail such as protecting minority interests then I for one would applaud them for sticking up for shareholders if it was apathy then yes I'd be cheesed off. Knowing management I'll go with the former. Everyone hates uncertainty as the comments on here show. But we will see. Exciting times

[dixi] 29/6/2020 08:47

Hope so, nothing like creating uncertainty amongst shareholders! It's now at the point I'll be happy so long as there are no unearthed and totally unexpected irregularities from the DD etc.

[actonovator] 29/6/2020 08:45

hope dies last - the mou was announced just after midday on a Monday, so...

[8rad] 29/6/2020 08:35

Kerim its time for a straight bat. Tell it as it is good or bad but no more obscure announcements leaving more questions than answers....especially the obvious opportunity to hide behind covid.

[charles clore] 29/6/2020 08:19

I think somebody is taking the michael !

[jaf1948] 29/6/2020 08:09

I think it is a very bad sign. If it takes the two companies this long to make a decision, how is it going to work in the real world when decisions have to be made on a day to day basis.

[kirbs4] 29/6/2020 08:08

If you were cynical (i can be :)) you would think that was the tactic adopted last time also, announcing an extension on the last day before confirmation of repayment of the capital loan.AAU has come so far even in the last 5 years and i do try not to dwell on the past, but you cant help but unearth those old frustrations around communication that seemed to have been left behind.

[rumpus1] 29/6/2020 08:01

Disappointing that they've chosen to release both on the same (last possible) day. One to soften the other?

[dixi] 29/6/2020 07:57

Must admit running this to the wire is not ideal, if a further extension was required that surely would have been know much sooner. Presume it must be ultimatum time then.

[soulsauce] 29/6/2020 07:53

Right to the wire it is then 🙄

[kirbs4] 29/6/2020 07:51

What a day this wouldve been to announce great results or the MOU.. Both still absent, can see a big move either way this week

[ironstorm] 29/6/2020 07:33

Gold within spitting distance of 1800. Bullish stories all weekend.

[bigglesbingham] 28/6/2020 19:20

Reading all the articles referred to in relation to Armageddon the crux is subprime mortgage credit crisis was collections of mortgages put into an instrument and due to inadequate checks the mortgages stopped being paid. Now we have instruments of collective loans to companies which pre covid 19 had good chances of being paid which are now questionable.

[soulsauce] 28/6/2020 16:16

Indeed 1candc 😉

[1candc] 28/6/2020 16:03

Good article Soul, maybe AAU should keep their stockpile longer

[rumpus1] 28/6/2020 14:32

Something on CLOs from May in the FT.

[plasybryn] 28/6/2020 07:40

Not so sure about US & EU banks however. Lots of talk in the US about the new sub prime collectivised debt called CLO's.