Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[1candc] 26/5/2020 09:35

I hope I get the opportunity to buy at 3.5p, the herd is in full exodus, could be a possibility

[kirbs4] 26/5/2020 09:34

Every time we've had a morning like this recently we've immediately replaced the sells with new holders and bounced back by the end of the day. Wonder if we'll see more of the same today..

[soulsauce] 26/5/2020 09:12

Yes good call Plasybryn.

[plasybryn] 26/5/2020 08:43

Sorry to restate but the charts indicated it was getting a bit over bought. Nothing to worry about just par for the course.

[dixi] 26/5/2020 08:39

Still selling rather than buying the news I guess.

[charles clore] 26/5/2020 08:37

The quarterlies obviously left some unimpressed judging by the price reaction!

[soulsauce] 26/5/2020 07:52

Next quarter production currently above plan even through worst Covid period. Not many will be able to say that.

I should imagine they saved the silver when the price dropped right back but now it is back to $17.5 we will be able to cash in making next month's silver credit even larger.

[gerrystewart] 26/5/2020 07:48

Yes, they are clearly refusing to sell silver below $17.00. Given that it has now gone back above that it will make the current quarters figures appear so much better. In addition the fall in the quarterly production of silver is not that far below Q4 of 2019. If that continues into the current quarter the Q2 outlook is very promising.

[ironstorm] 26/5/2020 07:28

I like that we have a stockpile of silver for now.

[gaddy88] 26/5/2020 07:22

Excellent and on track. Not many others can say the same given current events.

[renniks2016] 26/5/2020 07:10

Operating cash costs for the quarter are estimated at US$533 per ounce(#) Can't knock that.

[temujiin] 26/5/2020 07:06

-- Gross quarterly income of US$8.84 million
========


KIZILTEPE QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE

Ariana Resources plc ("Ariana" or "the Company"), the AIM-listed exploration and development company operating in Europe, is pleased to announce its operating results for the quarter ended 31 March 2020 for the Kiziltepe Mine ("Kiziltepe" or "the Project") in Turkey. Kiziltepe is part of the Red Rabbit Joint Venture ("JV") with Proccea Construction Co., and is 50% owned by Ariana through its shareholding in Zenit Madencilik San. ve Tic. A.S. ("Zenit").

Highlights:

-- Gross quarterly income of US$8.84 million at an average realised gold price of US$1,599 per ounce, against an average revenue per gold ounce of US$1,724 (due to silver credit)*.

-- Production and sale of 5,129 ounces of gold during the quarter ending 31 March 2020.
-- Operating cash costs for the quarter are estimated at US$533 per ounce(#) .
-- 31,421 ounces of silver was not sold during the period due to adverse price conditions and has been retained in stock.

-- Operational mill availability running at 99% and utilisation at 99% during March.
-- 53,840 tonnes ore milled during the period ending 31 March 2020 at an average head grade of 3.22 g/t Au.

-- Process recovery of gold remains high at 92.5%.
-- Kiziltepe Mine currently remains on track to deliver on the 2020 production target of 18,000 ounces of gold.

Dr. Kerim Sener, Managing Director, commented:

"Production during the first quarter of 2020 has provided another pleasing result, which was delivered in part during the current pandemic. Our business, being considered an essential industry, was allowed to continue and operations remain largely unaffected despite the introduction of various risk mitigation procedures at the mine site and an overall reduction of active staff levels. Indeed, our operations in to the current quarter are continuing in accordance with the mine plan.

"It is also important to note that the average monthly production from Kiziltepe during Q1 and in to the current quarter is currently running above target. This is in part due to higher material movements and the consequent accessibility of optimal grade ore feed throughout the period. Assuming production is able to continue uninterrupted through the current quarter, we remain on track to deliver on our production target for the year."

This announcement contains inside information for the purposes of Article 7 of EU Regulation 596/2014.

Current Developments:

-- Production of ore from the open-pits achieved an average rate of 30,827 tonnes per month over the period, with a peak rate of over 31,891 tonnes achieved in February.

-- Operations in the Arzu North and Derya areas are continuing as planned, with mining undertaken primarily from Arzu North during the period.

-- Following the repayment of the US$33 million construction capital loan to Turkiye Finans Katilim Bankasi A.S., the JV is largely free of debt but maintains a separate working capital loan balance with the bank of approximately US$8.5 million which is expected to be repaid in full by October 2021.

* All production figures are quoted gross with respect to the JV in this announcement.

(#) Operating cash costs are inclusive of on-site costs and off-site charges and royalties specific to the project. It also includes adjustments for stockpile balances at the end of each quarter, in addition to an adjustment for by-product silver. They exclude finance costs, taxes and development capital. The definition used to derive the cash costs is essentially the same as that used within the feasibility study. This cash cost was calculated based on unaudited figures obtained from Zenit.

Table 1: Production statistics for the Kiziltepe Mine in Q1 2020 and for the period mid-March 2017 to end-December 2019 (life of mine to date).


Measure Unit Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Total Production
Life of
Mine to
Date (#)
Plant feed grade g/t Au 3.22 4.42 4.15
------------- --------- --------- -----------------
Gold produced Troy Ounces 5,129 7,318 70,377
------------- --------- --------- -----------------
Silver produced Troy Ounces 67,459 107,074 738,356
------------- --------- --------- -----------------
Gross income US$'000 8,844 12,784 105,754
------------- --------- --------- -----------------
Operating cash cost
of production US$/oz 533 500 n/a(1)
------------- --------- --------- -----------------
Average revenue per
gold ounce(2) US$/oz 1,724.24 1,736.30 1,502.68
------------- --------- --------- -----------------
Average realised
gold price US$/oz 1,598.90 1,484.07 1,342.00
------------- --------- --------- -----------------

(1) Cash costs are not provided for the purposes of the life of mine due to the operation having been in ramp-up during part of the period. Costs incurred during the ramp-up period are not reflective of estimated operating costs over the longer term.

(2) Average revenue per gold ounce accounts for both the gold and silver sold during the period and is calculated by dividing the gross income by only the gold ounces sold in the period.

(#) Re-stated following year-end mine and mill reconciliation.

[kaos3] 26/5/2020 07:05

perfect

31,421 ounces of silver was not sold during the period due to adverse price conditions and has been retained in stock.

-- Operational mill availability running at 99% and utilisation at 99% during March.

It is also important to note that the average monthly production from Kiziltepe during Q1 and in to the current quarter is currently running above target.

[renniks2016] 26/5/2020 05:29

6X just isn’t the same out of a bottle!

[plasybryn] 26/5/2020 01:33

I thought it was only Real Ale drinkers on here, not the fizzy pop brigade!

[a.fewbob] 25/5/2020 23:45

Fair point Charles.

[risa5] 25/5/2020 23:35

How can anyone follow the advice of someone (Somerville) who admits making mistakes and miscalculations.

...'The problem is that every time I nibble away, the share price moves forward again so the value of my remaining holding is again at a new high – so it didn’t work.'

I'd prefer if he analysed the stocks impartially and professionally rather than for his own personal gain and situation.

[charles clore] 25/5/2020 23:29

A. Few, they do it so that they can boast an unblemished record of success. Its nothing to do with whats best for subscribers.

[auphilman] 25/5/2020 23:05

Sun, Hammock, San Miguel and common sense.. amen to that in a worlds thats gone nuts

[1candc] 25/5/2020 22:31

Thanks rumpus

[pranchalee] 25/5/2020 21:54

Cheers rumpus

[rumpus1] 25/5/2020 21:32

Here you go. It basically says to hold.


Amid all the bullish calls for Gold, Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com is suggesting a correction could have started last week. Of course, he has no crystal ball as he is the first to admit, but historical resistance has been hit by the gold price, by the gold-producer majors (as per the GDX ETF) and the gold “juniors”; as per the GDXJ ETF – which is a basket of not-so-junior stocks. So what to do?

The first thing to note is that a “correction221; in Jordan Roy-Byrne’s mind can be a correction in price or over time (in that things just mark time for a while). But there is the danger of a bit of slippage.

Longer term, Roy-Byrne is a big bull of gold. Given the mass of money printing already underway and the future noises of the printing presses as the full damage of the Coronavirus pin is realised, that is hardly a surprise.

But should we be selling our gold holdings? After all, AIM-listed Ariana (AAU) is now through the 4p mark and those lucky enough to have been buying near 1p will be staring at a four-bagger. Fully-listed Centamin (CEY) too is racing away – I piled in at £1 a little over a year ago and the stock is now up to 179p and another dividend has just been booked.

As far as Ariana is concerned, I did finally follow my own advice and take a small slice of pie off the table to bring my holding back towards manageable proportions relative to the rest of my portfolio. The problem is that every time I nibble away, the share price moves forward again so the value of my remaining holding is again at a new high – so it didn’t work. Of course, that is not really a problem!

In theory, I should be lobbing a few more out – especially if we are heading for a correction. But with corporate action news due in about five week’s time which could transform Ariana’s economics and see it join the dividend list, a production report from Kiziltepe due next week (which will surely be a ripper, given the much-risen price of gold, collapsing oil prices and slippage of the Turkish Lira) and news of Tavsan, Kizilcukor, Salinbas, Arzu South and so on also in the pipeline, I’m going to hold on for more. For what is there right now, I reckon Ariana is probably fairly priced but surely the other prospects have some value too. So my next mark to take another slice off the table will come at 5p (or more, if the news is good).

As for Centamin, I am certainly holding out for a share price beginning with a two before even considering lobbing a few out. After all, even at £2 a share, the company has ponied up 10 US cents over the past twelve months in dividends, equating to a yield (at £2) of 4.1%. With gold heading higher, I suspect another hike in the payout will come along at the next half year results and bearing in mind the record payout for 2016 of 15.5 US cents, when the gold price was hanging around the $1200-1300 mark, it seems to me that with gold now over $1700 there is a fair way to go on the dividend front. And of course if Centamin continues its share price ascent it could find itself in contention for a place in the FTSE100, given the market ructions elsewhere, which would see tracker funds getting involved. Perhaps that would be the cue to top-slice.

But for all Jordan Roy-Byrne’s warnings, I offer this observation: it could just march on higher anyway. And even if Roy-Byrne is correct, his view only goes as far as suggesting now may not be the best time to buy – and it certainly isn’t the time to sell.

So his message is hold on tight. And if we get a correction, that would be the time to buy a few more gold equities in your favourite companies.

So I’d better get cracking on the research front!

[1candc] 25/5/2020 20:26

Anyone got the latest Somerville article (released today) from share prophets re Ariana and Centamin?