Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[pedr01] 16/4/2020 09:59

Sorry Charles, nope ... I've squinted at it, put on my googly spring glasses, even looked at the five year chart, nothing ... Just do not see it ... I am hoping (of course) that you are right cos I hold far too many ...

[paul280i] 16/4/2020 09:57

Charles, that sounds like me at the present time with my head in the sand!

[charles clore] 16/4/2020 09:05

urprised nobody has mentioned the inverse head and shoulders that could catapult the price to around 5p!

[shortarm] 16/4/2020 07:00

Excellent :-)P.S. Not blind faith but a high degree of trust. Plus, I've never managed to get the kind of returns he did on the 35k battery metals investment....

[temujiin] 15/4/2020 21:59

Shortarm, I do have faith in KS and the BoD in general, but I don't believe in blind faith, so want to see the details, and hopefully also an idea of what they intend to do with the £25m cash. Past performance and all that.... What I do see atm is very good, visible and achievable profits from what we have, and what we also have control of. So faith yes, but still need to be convinced.

[bigglesbingham] 15/4/2020 21:22

I get that but KS has shown he can pick a bargain Asgard 35k to 3.5 million wasn't bad. You obviously need luck as well. But when you look at cash , divi , track record or income over ten years which has to be discounted back the argument to go for JV becomes compelling. One of my major concerns was minority shareholding . I don't want to get into a stratex situation but the board are well aware of the risks associated with minority interests so hopefully will be fully covered in legals .

[shortarm] 15/4/2020 20:36

Tem, by investing here you put your trust in Kerim Sener. We all did.Keep the faith, so far he's doing pretty damn well!

[temujiin] 15/4/2020 19:19

BB, indeed Proccea will contribute and I've previously estimated they will chuck in approx $7m.

Also true that with cash you can possibly pick up a bargain, but unless the bargain is better than the 27.5% of RR that we're selling, then it's not really a bargain.

[pranchalee] 15/4/2020 19:08

No matter what way you look at it this baby will continue to rise in the coming months and years,some will take profit and move on which is fine but I will be holding and adding as money becomes available.

[bigglesbingham] 15/4/2020 18:33

Another point is that in this current climate the value of gold is increasing but the value of cash in the bank also increases as you can buy so much more in a depressed market. The latter can be applied to anything in this weird time we live in. Healthy debate and differing opinions always welcome on this board.

[shortarm] 15/4/2020 18:33

Whichever way you slice it, it should be 6p right now!

[bigglesbingham] 15/4/2020 18:30

Tem fair appraisal, one thing your missing is the fact that the reduction to 23.5% is not just the money from the new partner but the corresponding amount from Proccea in the value of work they have to carry out to buy their share of salinbas. Currently they don't own any of salinbas.

[temujiin] 15/4/2020 18:26

Kaos3,

there are pros and cons with the proposed deal and which is more important I guess depends on individual circumstances and personality.

Off the top of my head and not exhaustive, Pros
Money in the company bank
One off divi
Large partner with deep pockets
Partner may bring skills and expertise
Partner could kick start Salinbas to production
Potential to diversify and de-risk portfolio

Cons
Reduced ownership of operational mine and gold reserves, 51% to 23.5%
Reduced future profits for life of mine, which exceeds upfront payment
Reduced ownership of Salinbas 100% to 23.5%
Risk of being a minority shareholder and loss of control

I'm sure others can add more pros and cons


The mine should this year with 18k oz produced, give AAU $9.45m gross profit. Tasvan can add an additional 30k oz per year. I just feel the $25m they are giving us for 27.5% of RR is under valuing it. I also think $5m plus an $8m spend on Salinbas isn't such a great deal either, but I await the details.


==================
AAU guidance for this year 18k oz, POG say average $1650, AISC say $600

18,000x $1050 = $18.9m.

Half to AAU so $9.45m gross profit this year.

[risa5] 15/4/2020 16:41

Ariana Resources still mining strongly at Kiziltepe in Turkey

“Production from our highest-grade pit, Arzu South, is due to be completed during
Q3 2020 and production thereafter will be focused on Arzu North and Derya"

Ariana Resources PLC (LON:AAU) continues to mine strongly from its Kiziltepe mine in Turkey with the gold producer noting that ore production was at a record level last quarter and gold output 14% was ahead of guidance.

In a statement, Ariana managing director said Kerim Sener work at the mine has continued uninterrupted through the coronavirus crisis, with transport restrictions in Turkey not yet affecting the mining sector.

The group said gold output was 5,129 ounces, with a lower feed grade accounting for the drop from 7,300 ounces in the comparable three months last year.

Sener noted that Ariana has upped production to help compensate for this expected reduction in grades from the satellite pits with decent weather helping.

“Production from our highest-grade pit, Arzu South, is due to be completed during Q3 2020 and production thereafter will be focused on Arzu North and Derya.

“In addition, the mine has built up a stockpile of over 130,000 tonnes of ore, sufficient to cover at least eight months of mill feed,” he added.
PI

[kaos3] 15/4/2020 16:30

tem - my thinking about JV - on the paper you are probably right but (there is a but lol):

- JV decreases a risk profile of operating in Turkey (how much is that worth in financial terms)
- JV decrease a risk profile operating only in Turkey (if they get out of its jurisdiction as the only one as soon as suitable)
- JV decreases the cash flow risk of it flowing into my pocket as I will get some cash back from the Co JIT when SHTF - how much that is worth in financial terms as well I do not know

It all boils down to Kerim and his abilities and character + the young wiz looking for other opportunities in Australia and elsewhere

[plasybryn] 15/4/2020 16:27

I’m sure that is right Biggles. Kieron Hodgson of Panmure Gordon is a big fan of a second Ball Mill and as has been said the cost will be easily in their reach now the Capex is cleared. But first things first. The priority is to build the Resource and Reserve to extend the life of mine and facilitate additional throughput. As we know the updated resource estimation and mine plan for Kiziltepe is due Q2. Then the Tavsan revised resource & mine plan also in Q2. Reserve statements should follow. The exciting aspect is the various satellite pits to fed Red Rabbit, plus the potential for one if not two underground mines. I'm sure the new partner, if the deal goes through of course, will be hot on wanting to exploit the potential asap given their investment and to strike whilst the gold price is hot. I know the Board have discussed the second Ball mill for some time and no doubt have a clear plan as they do with all things to maximise potential and deliver safe and rewarding share holder returns.

[soulsauce] 15/4/2020 16:17

That makes sense bigglesbingham.

[bigglesbingham] 15/4/2020 15:52

That tailings dam is huge but coming to the ball mill I think you get the reserves confirmed first to the market , then declare the second ball mill to attack those reserves. The fact that a second ball mill hasn't been declared doesn't mean it isn't being planned for. I don't know their current thinking but seem to remember it being muted over the years, but as I said in a post this morning the declaration of a second mill without reserves may be taken by the market as a reduction in mine life ie negatively.

[renniks2016] 15/4/2020 15:39

That's my ISA now full for this year, 270k @ 3.45 Happy Days.

[bigglesbingham] 15/4/2020 13:15

I didn't see any room for one but sure other reasons . I'd personally wait until reserves increase because if mine life cut from 7 to 4 year let's say then this would go against it. Think reserves will increase I. Next few months then ball mill announced .

[soulsauce] 15/4/2020 13:14

More of an issue might be the life of the tailings dump which may need to be made bigger over time.
May be once the new JV is completed a 2nd ball mill may be the first thing on the list.

[paul280i] 15/4/2020 13:10

The new ball mill should a no brainer, what do you think is the reason it's not been bought?

[8rad] 15/4/2020 12:18

Agreed...the place is awash with the stuff.

[soulsauce] 15/4/2020 12:11

They have plenty of more gold to go for at RR and potential for some underground working plus ore from the satellite pits so mine life isn't an issue.

[paul280i] 15/4/2020 12:08

rumpus, I suppose it depends on who you are, from my point of view to speed production if it was accompanied by a big divi, great. If you have a longer time frame then what does it matter if it takes 10 years. If you are an employee at the mine a shorter time frame means looking for a new job a lot sooner.