Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[soulsauce] 13/4/2020 18:35

Gold $1715. With silver credit and drop in fuel costs we must now be making nearly $1200 per oz.

[renniks2016] 13/4/2020 12:43

What ever the realistic valve is now, it is likely to be exceeded by the rush from the divi hunting crowd, for me what makes this more interesting is what Kerim has up his sleeve long term, no doubt he has plans for the cash (ex-divi) and these plans, (along with the JV) will be where the excitement lay for me. It will be an interesting 6 months that’s for sure, deal or no deal!! IMO

[paul280i] 13/4/2020 12:27

The company is worth that already in the eyes of our possible new JV partner. This excitement is not good for old folk like me, I may have to overdose on my miserable pills, I'm not sure they work too well, the ugly pills never had any effect.

[plasybryn] 13/4/2020 12:03

I don't think 100% upside from the current price is out of the question this year. Anyone else thinking the same?

[plasybryn] 13/4/2020 09:56

I was at the Analyst & Investor Day in London on the 25th November, the day the MofU was announced. And yes there were a number of analysts there including Kieron Hodgson, Equity Research from Panmure Gordon. And yes in my opinion he was visibly excited and impressed by what Ariana had pulled off subject of course to completion of D.D. & shareholder approval. As we know in January he issued a "Valuation overview and changes to forecasts" dated 24th January, albeit not taking account of the as yet unconfirmed/ratified deal. You will also recall he said in that Note: - " We maintain the view that while smaller than its peers, the cash generative nature of its operations coupled with a highly prospective pipeline of development assets leaves us believing a material re-rating is due for the Co. At our 10% discount rate the company is trading on an equivalent Gold price of just $1000/0z". Again using a 10% discount rate, we estimate Ariana is currently trading on a P/NAV of 0.6x. This discount to our normalised intuitive multiple of 1.0x NAV (assuming our NAV estimates incorporates the changes in production, future production efficiencies and any change in costs) looks anomalous given the low cost nature of the operations at Kiziltepe and the potential for incrementally high margin production growth" .
His target price was 4.37p, pre deal and gold at $1475.
They also provided a share price matrix for investors, but this only went as high as $1600 gold. At a 10% discount at $1600 gold the target was be 4.84p. t a 7% discount it was 5.35p
Add in the news since then, plus the potential accretive value of the deal, debt clearance end of this month and gold at $1700, plus low oil prices and weaken Turkish lira and what is now a fair price?
Is it time to start trying to hold back the excitment?

[red imp] 13/4/2020 08:18

$1700 / oz !!

[bigglesbingham] 11/4/2020 17:03

Not really heard from a chap who was at their meeting when it was declared that PG where over moon at deal. I took that to mean they have finally got the piece in jigsaw which brings Ariana into their or more to the point institution clients radar

[thanksamillion] 11/4/2020 13:01

I dont see the pit work as being the issue, we already have many months stockpiled. Its the processing plant that needs to keep working - producing gold for sale will ensure the financial results are not unduly affected. Build the plant workers some living accommodation for their family on site ;-)

[pranchalee] 11/4/2020 12:40

What a time to announce a maiden dividen when large companies are cancelling them to save cash,watch the money flow into gold companies in the coming months and ones with dividends will benefit the most

[soulsauce] 11/4/2020 12:26

Don't click the moron 👆👆👆.

By the sounds of it Kerim and team have already set up very good measures to keep the work force safe including staggered breaks and start times.
Can't see why we wouldn't be allowed to continue open pit work.
We have to be prepared for some disruption though even if it is just having to wait longer for spare parts for machinery etc.

[plasybryn] 11/4/2020 10:48

President Erdoğan sends a letter to British Prime Minister Johnson
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sent a letter to Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, where Turkey has delivered medical supplies.

In his letter to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, President Erdoğan indicated the following:

“Dear Prime Minister, Dear Friend,

Firstly, I would like to reiterate my heartfelt wishes so that your treatment process is completed as soon as possible and your health is recovered.

Unfortunately, I know that the United Kingdom, an important strategic partner, a strong ally and a valuable friend to our country, is one of the European countries most affected by the Covid-19 outbreak that has created impacts on the entire world. In this difficult period, I convey my condolences on behalf of my country and nation to all the people of the United Kingdom, especially the families and relatives of those who have lost their lives.

We are carefully following the measures taken by the UK authorities against the Covid-19 outbreak. Within this framework, I wish outstanding success for everybody who exerts efforts in this challenging period, especially the members of your government and the National Health System (NHS) professionals, and I hope that the friendly British people will overcome this tragedy with minimal losses.

We have excellent relations in almost every field with the United Kingdom, which has been one of the indispensable partners to Turkey and which has stood in solidarity with our country on several occasions. Finally, this has been recently manifested with official visits paid by your Foreign Secretary and First Secretary Dominic Raab to our country on March 3, 2020 and by your Defense Secretary Ben Wallace and your Trade Envoy to Turkey Lord Robin Janvrin on March 12-13, 2020.

In order to show that we stand in solidarity with the United Kingdom, which is a friend and ally that has been going through difficult times, we also ensure that the medical aid supplies are delivered to your country today by an aircraft of our Air Forces.

I once again wish urgent healing to you in your fight against this pandemic. I would like to stress that after overcoming this challenging period that we have been facing globally, we would like to welcome you in our country, which is your ancestor land, in order to crown the sincere and intense communication we have been maintaining since the day you took office and to make decisions on the steps that will take our bilateral cooperation even further in the post-Brexit period.”

[swallowsflysouth] 11/4/2020 10:17

Thank you Red Imp. Think president very aware of the economics and a need to keep as much business going as possible. At the moment AAU is open pit and a very sensible outfit, am certain they will take as many precautions as possible and keep operations going with i'm certain the co-operation of their workforce who will want to keep earning while they can.

[red imp] 11/4/2020 10:03

Correction - Bloomberg says 31 major cities, not provinces, which shouldnt affect us.

[red imp] 11/4/2020 10:01

A full lockdown in 31 provinces - dont know whether Kiziltepe falls in one of these.

[swallowsflysouth] 11/4/2020 09:39

Turkey now in lockdown but the details were not clear to me, it is possible that it is only cities and does not include all businesses. Have not been able to find out and clarify details.

[plasybryn] 10/4/2020 14:11

I posted this on LSE this morning:-RE: Lots of good news coming?Today 07:55Looking forward to next week. I genuinely think after all these years of development Ariana might finally be at a pivotal moment over the next few weeks/months. A moment it changes from a lowly , largely unnoticed, under the radar £25m minnow into part of a really serious gold/silver player with ambitions we could never have considered possible just 6 months ago. The moment is coming. The gold is going to new highs and we are going to enjoy some of the best returns ever. Sorry getting carried away perhaps but wanted to extend a bit of Easter cheer in these rather bleak virus times. Take care

[risa5] 09/4/2020 22:52

Biggles
Do you have more details about Panmure Gordon report on Ariana?
ref post 20557

[8rad] 09/4/2020 21:59

Yes the word divi has majical powers agreed.

[bigglesbingham] 09/4/2020 21:54

The divi will start attracting institutions the cash will attract buyers of the company depending on where the shareprice goes to

[8rad] 09/4/2020 21:52

Hence my question.

[bigglesbingham] 09/4/2020 21:49

Cheers soul

[bigglesbingham] 09/4/2020 21:49

I think they will imply first dividend without explicit commitment to further dividends but everyone will be in not doubt that's the intention. That's what I'd do anyway.

[soulsauce] 09/4/2020 21:47

Another avatar allowed by advfn allowing the same old link. Don't click the link.