Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jaf1948] 07/12/2020 09:44

Biggles,

My comment was not a criticism - it just seems to have been going on too long to be just one seller.

Either way, it's not doing us much good at the moment !

[bigglesbingham] 07/12/2020 09:41

Just my gut reaction JAF based on the pattern. I think it's someone poss several reducing holding in a way that doesn't want to reduce share price (probably due to existing holding) but it will restrict share increases until gone. It's just my thoughts and may be wrong .

[jaf1948] 07/12/2020 09:36

Biggles,

With the greatest respect:

bigglesbingham - 29 Apr 2020 - 13:11:14 - 20938 of 25724
Me too but there must be a seller in background

bigglesbingham - 27 May 2020 - 07:39:28 - 21992 of 25724
Looks like seller still there.

bigglesbingham - 12 Jun 2020 - 09:22:51 - 22323 of 25724
Just obviously a seller in background

There are more but I cannot believe there has been one big seller for all this time.

[kirbs4] 07/12/2020 09:34

I don't disagree with any of that Biggles, but for the share price to jump we need new investors right, and scratching an itch of current investors isn't going to provide that imo. It is all good news, just not the transformational points that would shift the share price imo, all I'm saying. Market seems to support that this morning too.

[1candc] 07/12/2020 09:32

Agreed re seller Bigglesbingham - 2 x 200k at the open looks like that sort of action. Hopefully they are close to clearing out.

[bigglesbingham] 07/12/2020 09:30

There was a definite uncertainty creeping into this bulletin board last week as to whether the deal was going ahead. This rns says it is and is the correct thing to do was reiterate that. Intimation is 2 weeks shareholders approval and I d expect signatures end dec very easy new year.

[bigglesbingham] 07/12/2020 09:21

That is the way many will view but in my opinion that thought process applies to a large established company. I growth exploration company paying first dividend is different , you get noticed as a future income stream (which they have intimated is their desired direction) thus will bring in new interest and many of those receiving dividend will use money to buy more shares because it will release more funds. Also the $37m is nowhere near priced in yet. Reason for share price suppression is imho simple and that's the fact there is a seller out there.

[mad foetus] 07/12/2020 09:14

I don't think new investors care about the dividend. In fact, a one off dividend is a negative: why buy a share for 5.5p with a 1p dividend due as you end up paying income tax on the divi and the share price should drop by the corresponding amount. What will move things is a path to increasing resources and production

[pauliewonder] 07/12/2020 09:11

Dividend not divorce

[pauliewonder] 07/12/2020 09:11

Agree. It further de-risks the deal but in my view it will go ahead so whilst these are not formalities, I do expect a deal and would be hugely surprised and disappointed if it didn't go ahead. I think we have a platform at today's price. I think the downside potential is very limited from here. When the divorce is announced formally we should see a bigger increase in my view as we will get buyers for the divi. I just think we are still under the radar and undervalued

[kaos3] 07/12/2020 08:57

no holding RNS over the last year makes me think of the "share price management"

but why ?

retail is buying imho

[1candc] 07/12/2020 08:51

It's a pity the second RNS wasn't held back until tomorrow, it's got rather lost in the fog and could have provided a further boost after the market had a chance to digest the earlier JV news.

Having said that I still cannot understand why the news here prompts so much selling, bizarre.

If AAU had no mine, no resource, no $37 million coming in, and no dividend it would have soared today

[jaf1948] 07/12/2020 08:50

Like everyone else on here, I read the two RNSs this morning as good news. The market, as usual, is less than impressed.

Which is right ?

[kirbs4] 07/12/2020 08:48

Agree Biggles, all good for the springboard. Even shaking some weak hands ahead of finalising :).

[bigglesbingham] 07/12/2020 08:46

No problem, however if the development is funded via debt, then debt repaid once the mine is producing similar to Kiziltepe then little or no further capital will be required through to development. And depending on you definition of free carry may actually apply. Either way both RNSs are excellent news. Personally I'd have liked them in consecutive days to enhance the momentum of the share price and the hour between the two doesn't hold any logic to me. But the content is excellent circular end this week , meeting to sign off by end Dec very much on the cards.

[kirbs4] 07/12/2020 08:40

Agree sonoftherock

[bigglesbingham] 07/12/2020 08:37

My mistake in my haste i miss read court approval is still a condition of dividend.

[bosbus] 07/12/2020 08:35

AYM up a further 32% so far today with no income and no mine??

[kirbs4] 07/12/2020 08:35

I agree it has always been likely Biggles, but fact remains that many on this board interpreted it to mean all the way, as demonstrated by sonoftherocks post, who was arguing at the time it would be to dev. I am a LTH here as you know and it benefits me for the share price to rise so not deramping, just trying to keep feet on the ground when it comes to expectation of a significant share price rise, I think it will come but I don't think today's (first) news is anything significant enough to push us. Deal wise, I believe that time only comes with full completion and/or clearer timeliness around divi. Just my opinion.

[red imp] 07/12/2020 08:33

Has it really been 10 years since we signed the Proccea JV?

[bigglesbingham] 07/12/2020 08:31

Free carry has always been to development , the cost of the mine will be significant $100m I don't think free carry was assumed for this. Likely to be funded by debt but not free carry. I'm looking forward to comparing the assay results of CHF with VENUS to get some perspective on value. Rns states court approval obtained in order to facilitate dividend but need to check this again.

[sonoftherock] 07/12/2020 08:29

I don't suppose anyone will remember but many months back I suggested that free carry to development decision point was more likely. The wording in previous announcements had been ambiguous.

[1candc] 07/12/2020 08:26

With some sells going through you could be right, I must remember this is AAU!

[lottsgold] 07/12/2020 08:24

Looking forward to the new drill results, Ariana have been doing DD for 2 years, I have a feeling they know where to drill.