Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[dixi] 14/10/2020 17:09

Cheers soulsauce, appreciate the info :-)

[soulsauce] 14/10/2020 16:19

And of course CSSF, while they both remain on the main market then excessive dilution is not an issue.
I believe both the companies you mention are going to grow using other methods to big dilution, Darren at Palm has already said so.

[crossfirecssf] 14/10/2020 16:10

Paul280i / Konil, I saw the same chart as you. Huge growth in the optimistic phase, followed by production (eventually) more growth, at which point the ‘dream’ is reconsidered and the adventurous investor gets a bit bored if they’re not millionaires, and move on. It’s a more or less proven phenomenon.

Konil, yes CHF in particular and PALM are two companies that if you’re a high ‘risk tolerant’ investor, are worth a good look, although if gold goes towards $2,700 year end, Joe Public won’t be so much doing their research,... they’ll be buying what their taxi driver recommends.

[soulsauce] 14/10/2020 16:01

dixi I hear what you are saying but Kav is a little different. Yes they will need to dilute to drill in early 21 but if those drill results prove the model of a Norilsk type deposit they will not require anymore funding as prospective partners will be all over it.
A good start would be to research Norilsk which provides about 90% of Russia's nickel and copper plus PGMs.
Of course they could drill and be disappointed. If a small oiler was sat on a look alike elephant sized oil field it wouldn't be 5m mkt cap. The beauty with copper and nickel is you don't need traps and it can't be confused for water. Most of the boxes are ticked.
Apologies for off topic.

[renniks2016] 14/10/2020 15:13

Not so much as a stampede, 5 trades were mine, couldn't get a quote for 200k so did a few smaller ones, but the 150k's were not mine! at ease guys.

[kirbs4] 14/10/2020 15:08

The cynic in me would hope the long awaited rns has been submitted for release in the morning and there are people who have got wind of that... But that would be very cynical :)

[1candc] 14/10/2020 14:57

I wonder what caused that? Have we been tipped anywhere?

[shortarm] 14/10/2020 14:57

It's the quarter to three investors club!

[1candc] 14/10/2020 14:51

What just happened? A stampede of buyers

[renniks2016] 14/10/2020 14:39

I wish I had a few more in UFO this morning! I know we all like a steady rise, but chuck in a 45% blue day once in a while, it does moral the world of good. ;)

[paul280i] 14/10/2020 14:36

A few years ago I saw a graph of early stage mining companies share price. Starts off low, a massive spike when drilling results published then many years in the doldrums while raising cash to build a mine then a steady rise in share price as profits start to roll in. I think with CHF they are in the first stage (don't follow the others). The trick is to get out at the top of the first stage (if you can see that) and wait till the start of mining before buying back.

[dixi] 14/10/2020 14:23

Soulsauce, with early stage companies like KAV isn't the problem likely to be dilution in much the same way as happened with AAU. Whereby the market cap increases due to shares issued, but the share price goes nowhere?

[konil] 14/10/2020 14:21

cssf, your post 305, for me a real gem. it has in a few sentences explained why those companies with nothing but a licence and a hole in the ground outperform those with profitable producing mines in a pm bull market.

i'm hoping aau will give me some firepower to direct towards those 'hope value' outfits before its too late.

would i be correct in thinking that chf, palm and kav are 3 such companies, where i could start my search?

[crossfirecssf] 14/10/2020 13:32

Much appreciated Soulsauce, I’ll take a look at Kav. I own CHF (sorely tempted to increase) and PALM (thanks to you). Cheers

[soulsauce] 14/10/2020 12:06

CSSF you should take a look at Kav to be in one of those. As ever it's speculative and the drill bit will be the prover but if they have what they think they have in a look alike Norilsk deposit it will be worth billions. That has to be worth some risk.

And Chf and Palm as Shortarm says.

[shortarm] 14/10/2020 11:51

Agree on CHF and also like PALM because Kerim is involved.....

[bigglesbingham] 14/10/2020 11:47

I think issuance of the circular re new JV will start a movement up which will be sharply increased two weeks later when deal signed. But wtf do I know.

[1candc] 14/10/2020 11:00

This from NS of share price on Monday's RNS re prelim production results

"AIM-listed Turkish gold-producer Ariana Resources (AAU) has released its Q3 preliminary production results from Kiziltepe this morning and it seems to me that right now the company can do little wrong. The bad news (which we already knew) is that mining has shifted from the higher grade Arzu South pit to the lower grade Arzu North and Derya pits. But ore throughput at the plant hit a new record and plans to increase throughput are on the way…

Q3 production came in at 5,125 oz gold and 63,339 oz silver, which brings gold production for the first nine months up to 14,933 oz. With guidance of 18,000 oz for the full year that means that Kiziltepe has to chuck out just 3,067 oz in Q4 to meet target and that seems to me to be a shoe-in. In other words, I’d say Ariana is on track to beat its target comfortably and is sticking to the old adage of underpromising and overdelivering. Good news. Throughput hit a new high point in the quarter, with the Kiziltepe plant processing at a rate of almost 230,000 tonnes per annum – 53% above the feasibility designed rate. So despite the drop in feed grade from 3.2 g/t to 2.63 g/t, gold production held up extremely well, almost matching Q1 and well above Q2’s 4,679 oz gold. With Arzu South now departed (for now, but watch this space) during August, I would imagine that the feed grade will drop further over the next few quarters and that will affect gold production to some extent. But Ariana tells us that:

despite the expected reduction in grade, this increased tonnage coupled with continued high mill throughput will ensure output is maintained at the highest possible levels

Will one fully compensate for the other? Maybe, but we are also told of stockpiled over 10 months of mill-feed at average throughput rates so my guess is that we will see perhaps a further 5,000 oz this quarter. Much more importantly, having long-considered a mill expansion to increase throughput, we are now told that:

the joint venture team is advancing towards a proposed mill expansion which provides for an increase in throughput to 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes per annum

With a more-or-less doubling of mill throughput, I would suggest that Kiziltepe is set for a decent increase in production going forward, and this development would open up the possibility of processing ore from other satellite pits. All very good news indeed.

The big news we are all waiting for is, of course, progress on the inclusion of Ozaltin into the joint venture with Ariana and current partner Proccea – and the associated special dividend which I reckon will come in at around $10 million or 0.75p per Ariana share, give or take. On that there was nothing this morning, but I suggest patience will be rewarded shortly. In the meantime, this morning’s news offers up a very tasty hors d’oeuvre and leaves me completely comfortable with my over-sized holding at 6.1p (up 2.5% this morning) as I continue to look to 7.5p to take some more profits and a 10p eventual target. But as before, if the gold price goes on another run (which I fully expect) and Kerim Sener and his team continue to deliver, there should be more to come even after that.

For now, very strong hold."

[1candc] 14/10/2020 10:53

The share price has hit a temporary hiatus where even great news like the recent RNS on the prelim production results has no affect at all. I do think the share price will push on from the current doldrums and the catalyst will be the formal JV tie up and dividend details. I firmly believe that 10p is achievable by year end and possibly higher than that. It is a complete game changer when a company starts to pay dividends and I am hopeful that there will be more dividends beyond the special dividend arising from the JV.

[charles clore] 14/10/2020 10:34

News will come but as we all know that doesn't mean a higher share price biggles.

[lottsgold] 14/10/2020 10:03

You know just after losing patience this will fly, hold strong this company is worth more than £63million!

It’s not a stretch to say in a couple of years we will have £15-20million profit per year plus Salinbas being proved to multimillion (Target of 3.7million) and the mine plans underway...plus a mine or two planned in Cyprus. Oh and lots of cash I imagine!

[bigglesbingham] 14/10/2020 10:03

Lotta seems to have given very valid areas of news flow, why say you aren't holding your breath? Don't you think news will come in these areas?

[charles clore] 14/10/2020 09:49

Nice thoughts Lott's but not holding my breath!