Argo Blockchain Share Discussion Threads

[scotty666] 05/1/2020 21:04

Hootza616 more transactions does not equal more mining, this is where I believe your logic is flawed. The number of bitcoins mined per block will halve in May from 12.5 currently to 6.25 so many anticipate the price of BTC will rise given miner returns drop.

144 blocks per day are mined on average, and there are 12.5 bitcoins per block. 144 x 12.5 is 1,800, so that's the average amount of new bitcoins mined per day.

Because many miners are adding new hashpower, over the last few years blocks have often been found at 9.5 minute intervals rather than 10. This creates new bitcoins faster, so on most days there are actually more than 1,800 new bitcoins created.

The maximum number of bitcoins there will ever be is 21 million and I think under 3 million left to mine.

[scottman72] 05/1/2020 16:48

Hootza, despite new machines being installed the hashrate has stalled/dropped. Even though it looks like it might be starting to pick up again. This suggests that inefficitent machines have been turned off.
Added to this, there has been previous reports from miners that they have turned off inneficient machines now as well as it being reported that the average mining cost in China is circa 8.5k.
Note however that this 8.5k includes loan and other costs which are not directly related to mining so the point at which the machines become inefficient to switch off is less then this.

[hootza616] 05/1/2020 14:06

Interesting!

[horneblower] 05/1/2020 10:51

The number of bitcoin transactions per month has not increased since it reached 10 million at the end of 2016.

[hootza616] 05/1/2020 09:51

"Currently some mines are struggling/shutting off"Hi Scotty,Just wondered where you had seen this as all mining news seems to be of increased hashrate which equates to miners turning on, upgrading and expanding operations.

[hootza616] 05/1/2020 09:45

"A touch down on Q3 due to a combination of higher hash rate and lower BTC."But these negatives could be offset somewhat by a large rise in the number of network transactions that require mining, due to increased interest in BTC?I believe miners have collectively increased the hashrate to be ready for the true global uptake of BTC as a respected safe haven asset class.

[orm5] 05/1/2020 09:21

My calc, based on my assumption when new machines came online:Oct 169 BTCNov 183 BTCDec 239 BTCExpecting Q4 revenue to be circa £3.4M

[barnetpeter] 04/1/2020 22:43

Another view


"Longer term, however, it is clear to see that in instances where there is trouble in capital controlled countries like Iran and China, bitcoin will be a key asset when times get sketchy.

As such, for those speculators who think of gold and oil as the place to trade when war in the Middle East is on the rise, then bitcoin is the place to be.

For those wanting to trade what might be a U.S./Iran escalation, bitcoin is the place to do your thing because while there are trillions in gold and oil to suck up demand, there is only a smattering of bitcoin to take the sort of buying surge a country like Iran could create were the situation to spin up into a large scale conflict.

Bitcoin is the best place for flight capital and haven capital for those in Iran wishing to protect their assets, and that alone is enough to drive Bitcoin back towards its previous and all-time highs. Then there is the exaggerated Beta of Bitcoin that will draw in the global speculators".

[barnetpeter] 04/1/2020 22:40

Bitcoin spiked earlier this week following an escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with analysts once again linking bitcoin to so-called safe haven assets like gold.

hmmmmm.... bitcoin was "literally the only way to get money out of the country." Could apply to many places.

I expect a big move on btc as the tensions increase.

[scottman72] 04/1/2020 18:08

Trustme,
Yes, I have similar figures.
I’m expecting Q4 to be slightly less than 3m. A touch down on Q3 due to a combination of higher hash rate and lower BTC.
If all stays the same this means March alone could be approaching 3m per month before the halving. Afterwards 4.5m per quarter.
What will be interesting is what happens to the hash rate at halving. Currently some mines are struggling/shutting off. If the hash rate continues to stay at a similar level then there could be a significant amount shut off at the halving which would reduce the hash rate and increase ARBs proportion (increased revenue).
Either way, I think times are looking good for ARB for at least the first half of 2020 and if they reinvest in more machines the sky is the limit.

[philjeans] 04/1/2020 11:38

Just looks a no-brainer to me.

More machines; more BTCs; more revenue; more profit; likely dividends.

Shares are cheap on chart/ likely earnings/ relatively under-researched.

BUY.

[yump] 04/1/2020 11:20

My son’s doing theoretical astrophysics I’ll see if he can come up with a formula when he wakes up - should be trivial for him !

[hootza616] 04/1/2020 11:06

Sorry to bang in guys but I think your missing my point. Hashrate is effectively the number of miners out there with spades digging on the network for value.A miner is successful and gains a nugget of BTC when they solve a mathematical problem required to complete a transaction.The more miners out there the less likely any individual miner is going to get the nugget.However the number of transactions that need mining (volume) is growing so there are more nuggets to find.Am I being thick?

[yump] 04/1/2020 10:43

Been following this for a while - thanks for the informative posts. Took a tranche last week as feel that I should have something invested in cryptocurrency directly or indirectly. I’m assuming this could be more geared than a simple purchase of btc

[trustmeimastomach] 04/1/2020 10:12

My calcs.. ARB have mined approx 130 btc per month the past couple of months , the new s17 coming on line 12th should takes us to 371 ph or 220 btc mined per month... full quota spring 2020 of 640 ph should generate at current difficulty rate 380 btc p/m

[idiot441] 04/1/2020 09:11

CEO interview
hxxps://coingeek.com/argo-blockchain-new-btc-miners-will-have-difficulty-finding-success/

[orm5] 04/1/2020 07:24

Agreed - increasing hash rate and hence increasing difficulty rate would reduce a miners margin assuming the BTC prices stays the same or goes down - which it has done since July time. However if a miner increases their hash rate (computing power) then they are increasing their volume of BTC mined, but this would be at a lower margin due to the increased difficulty rate.For ARB due to the above I'm expecting Q4 results to be the same as Q3

[scottman72] 04/1/2020 04:31

mining difficulty is increased every 2016 blocks to keep the rate of BTC generation roughly the same. This means hash rate and mining difficulty essentially track each other although there is a slight lag to the mining difficulty being updated.
An increase in hash rate is bad for a miner as this means their hardware is becoming less profitable.

[orm5] 03/1/2020 21:56

My understanding is that the hash rate is the amount of bitcoin mining that is taking place and not related to BTC trading / transactions.So a higher hash rate equals more miner's, but the difficulty rate in mining BTC can also increase with increasing hash rate so one can offset the other to some extent.But overall increasing hash rate must be positive as it means there is a lot more interest in mining BTC

[scottman72] 03/1/2020 16:03

Eventually, even at these BTC prices, ARG won't be able to utilise all their profits to buy new machines (supply/demand from ASIC mining suppliers). That's most likely going to be the point at which reasonable dividends will be provided and the share price rocket.

What does however surprise me is BITMAIN looking to offload a further half its workforce. Surely they must have good business at the moment?

[hootza616] 03/1/2020 16:00

But surely the rise in transaction rate has a positive impact?If more and more people are using/trading BTC daily then there are more daily blocks to be mined in the network?

[scrutable] 03/1/2020 14:09

The next Trading Update is likely to reveal that the whole 17,000 machines will have paid for themselves by August 2020 and could then be written off. Why then seek to obtain machines of higher efficiency until the price of BTC falls to near the current cost (£2,500/BTC?), which it almost certainly won't do?

Rather than fall, the halving in Spring will lead to a sales price up-spike.

What could possibly cause a further significant lowering of the SP? The chart shows the share price to be lifting from a 6-month bottom on Dec 18th and still to be in grossly oversold chart territory (-60% below trend)?

[orm5] 03/1/2020 12:48

As the hash rate increases this will be offset by the difficulty rate so that the average block time remains at circa 10 minutes.

[scotty666] 03/1/2020 12:26

No higher hashrates means the share of the spoils is reduced so ROI reduces and high cost miners stop. With halving coming that will amplify the effect significantly

[topazfrenzy] 03/1/2020 12:25

and UP she goes

10p in a month