Arcontech Share Discussion Threads

[vimalgrover] 11/12/2005 11:27

Breakout of two to three year downtrend in the last couple of months

[vimalgrover] 11/12/2005 11:22

I hold some of these shares. From the recent RNS's it looks like they are basically at breakeven, so agree that with a fixed cost base more revenues should go to the bottom line.

I've been trying to get a handle on the revenues per member. I think I remember ARC saying a while ago that they re-insure for each member to reduce the risk that a problem with a few members causes financial strain.

There's otherwise a big discrepancy between the amount charged for the products and ARC's revenue or am I missing something. The red24 alert can cost as much as £1300 per member before discount, red24 is £80 per member per year. But from the recent results, it seems that for 500,000 members there is a revenue of maybe 1-1.5 million per year? So maybe roughly £2-3 per member. Even so, if they can increase the members by another 500,000 and double revenues, it is easy to see that they could have a nice profit and a 5-10 bagger share to boot.

It would be nice to get an RNS for Japan. It seems that ARC are releasing news more regularly now.

Does anyone know how to change the chart at the top...the scale is too compressed, I am sure it does nothing to invite people to the thread. Anyone fancy making a new thread??

Vim

[marmiesz] 11/12/2005 10:36

I certainly think so and have held these for over a year now and just about in profit. Its all about potential, isn't it always the way with small cap stocks!

Marmie.

[integer] 10/12/2005 21:25

From the interim results on 16th Nov:-

"Last June we entered into an agreement with HSBC Bank plc to
incorporate red24's personal security service as part of HSBC's Premier banking
offering and ID imposter into their HSBC Plus banking offering. These are two
significant contracts, which have taken the total number of customers of red24
to well over 500,000. Each month several thousand new customers are added and
the English language service of red 24 now has sufficient mass to cover its
costs on a monthly basis."

So breakeven has been obtained. I think HSBC has been a big factor here as its a mandatory addition for HSBC customers.

Since then we've had TWO agreements with HISCOX and "a world leading insurance based financial services institution."

The potential for a significant portion of this new business to fall straight through to the bottom line is clear. If Japan comes on board with similar agreements then I can see a lot of profit potential.

With a market cap of only £3m if they get it right - it will move swiftly in one direction!

[rcktmn] 09/12/2005 20:51

As a reminder - this from 16thNov..Seymour Pierce says buy Arc Risk Management (LSE: ARC.L - news)
This has even more importance now.. share price must rise... good time to top up again (imho)

[rcktmn] 09/12/2005 08:45

More good news released this morning... gets better & beter... glad i topped up last week. Ths share price has got to move now!... must be due a big upward re rating !



ARC RISK MANAGEMENT GROUP PLC

New Contract Announcement

Leading Insurance Company to provide red24 security services to customers

ARC Risk Management Group Plc (the 'Group'), the leading security services
company, announces that its wholly owned subsidiary red24 Ltd ('red24') has
entered into an agreement with a world leading insurance based financial
services institution.

As part of the agreement, the Group's red24 division will provide personal
security services as a compulsory addition to a prestigious base of UK
household insurance policies. Each household customer and their immediate
family will have access to personal security support from red24's Crisis
Response Management (CRM) Centre 24 hours a day through a dedicated hotline.

This is a new agreement for the Group and will further consolidate red24's
position as a leader in the provision of personal security help and advice.

Simon Wakeling, Managing Director, red24, commented:

'Since 2000, red24 has provided market leading personal security services to
customers throughout the world. Demand for these services is growing rapidly.
Our first half trading period, for example, saw sales of red24 increase
fivefold.

'We are delighted to work with this client which has an excellent reputation
for customer satisfaction and for providing innovative services. We look
forward to helping their customers with their personal security needs.'

[rcktmn] 09/12/2005 08:45

More good news released this morning... gets better & beter... glad i topped up last week. Ths share price has got to move now!... must be due a big upward re rating !



ARC RISK MANAGEMENT GROUP PLC

New Contract Announcement

Leading Insurance Company to provide red24 security services to customers

ARC Risk Management Group Plc (the 'Group'), the leading security services
company, announces that its wholly owned subsidiary red24 Ltd ('red24') has
entered into an agreement with a world leading insurance based financial
services institution.

As part of the agreement, the Group's red24 division will provide personal
security services as a compulsory addition to a prestigious base of UK
household insurance policies. Each household customer and their immediate
family will have access to personal security support from red24's Crisis
Response Management (CRM) Centre 24 hours a day through a dedicated hotline.

This is a new agreement for the Group and will further consolidate red24's
position as a leader in the provision of personal security help and advice.

Simon Wakeling, Managing Director, red24, commented:

'Since 2000, red24 has provided market leading personal security services to
customers throughout the world. Demand for these services is growing rapidly.
Our first half trading period, for example, saw sales of red24 increase
fivefold.

'We are delighted to work with this client which has an excellent reputation
for customer satisfaction and for providing innovative services. We look
forward to helping their customers with their personal security needs.'

[rcktmn] 03/12/2005 10:43

The positive news flow frequency is increasing with more to come.
Topped up ealier in the week... will get some more at these levels... share price has got to rise sooner or later...(imho)

[romanrory] 02/12/2005 20:49

Another positive rns We are getting there.
This time next year we,ll all millionaires !!!

[rcktmn] 02/12/2005 20:19

ARC RISK MANAGEMENT GROUP PLC

Customer Agreement

Launch of red24alert and Identity Theft Assistance Services for Hiscox Plc
Policyholders

Arc Risk Management Group Plc announces a further agreement with its existing
client, Hiscox Plc, to provide Hiscox Direct policyholders with the red24alert
service, offering them and their immediate families access to a free
on-the-ground response service from red24 in the event of their suffering a
life-threatening security incident, whether at home or abroad.

The agreement also sees Hiscox Direct policyholders and their immediate
families automatically become members of red24's Identity Theft Assistance
services, in response to the rising number of incidents of identity theft in
the UK. Since January 2004 Hiscox has been providing all of its home insurance
policyholders with free direct access to the standard red24 service, offering
safety and security advice.

The service will be available to new and existing customers from 1 December, to
coincide with the start of the Christmas period when the risks of fraud are
heightened.

Identity theft occurs when an individual's personal details are replicated
fraudulently to open bank accounts, obtain credit cards, loans, state benefits
and documents such as passports and driving licenses. Last year, 135,000 people
were victims of the crime, compared to just 20,000 in 1999. Overall, identity
theft costs the British economy over £1.3 billion annually.

Kevin Kerridge, Head of Direct Business, Hiscox commented:

'Identity theft is invasive, distressing and increasingly common. It can affect
anyone, and can take months or even years to unravel without dedicated
professional help. The new service is designed to both alleviate worries over
falling victim to identity theft and provide rapid assistance to minimise the
impact on a victim's circumstances.'

Simon Wakeling, Director, Arc Risk Management plc, commented:

'Hiscox policyholders can take comfort through the comprehensive protection
afforded by red24's membership services. As a result of this and other
agreements with global companies in the financial services industry, we are
witnessing significant growth in our membership base and look forward to
announcing further developments in the coming months.'

[waldron] 29/11/2005 07:33

ThyssenKrupp makes 61.50 cad/share offer for Dofasco, outbids Arcelor UPDATE

(Updates with analyst comment)
DUESSELDORF, Germany (AFX) - ThyssenKrupp AG said it offered 61.50 cad per
share for Dofasco Inc in a friendly takeover offer that values the company at
3.5 bln eur or 4.8 bln cad.
The German steel conglomerate also said Dofasco Inc's board of directors
unanimously recommends its shareholders accept the cash offer, which is 9.8 pct
higher than Arcelor's 56.00 cad per share hostile bid.
Analysts said the price was too high.
"From a strategic perspective it makes sense because ThyssenKrupp is not
well established in the North America," said Thomas Hofmann of Landesbank
Rheinland-Pfalz. "But at the same time it is quite expensive and North America
is certainly not a growth market for steel."
Dofasco has steel plants in Canada as well as Kentucky and also has 10 years
of iron reserves via its stakes in Quebec Cartier Mining and Wabash Resources.
ThyssenKrupp, which is the world's ninth-largest steel producer, does not
have any steel mills in the US.
Prior to making the recommendation, Dofasco reached an agreement with
ThyssenKrupp on the conditions of the bid.
ThyssenKrupp anticipates that the transaction can be completed before the
end of the first quarter of 2006.
It also said it can finance the transaction in full from available cash
funds.
[e-mail]
amk/joy/jc/ak

[ariane] 26/11/2005 09:22

Steelmakers on a roll, until the next glut
Nov 25th 2005
From The Economist Global Agenda

China's appetite for steel has provided the rest of the world's big producers with a rare period of boom and helped to finance a buying spree, of which Arcelor's hostile bid for Dofasco is just the latest example. But burgeoning Chinese steel production threatens to flood the market and test whether sheer size will offer any protection to the world's steel giants


AS RECENTLY as six years ago, while investors were still in thrall to a dotcom bubble that had yet to burst, steel was derided as one of the last bastions of the "old" economy. Many firms in the industry were state-owned or heavily protected by governments keen to preserve assets deemed vital to national interests. Globalisation had left the steel business behind. It is a measure of the changes that have swept the business since the internet bubble popped that this week Arcelor, a company created through a 2001 merger of the top French, Spanish and Luxembourg steelmakers, made a hostile bid of C$4.4 billion ($3.8 billion), in cash, for Dofasco, Canada's leading steel firm.

There is further evidence that the industry has changed. Rumours are circulating that Arcelor, the world's second-largest steel producer, could face competition for the hand of Dofasco from German or American steelmakers. Arcelor's reasons for going hostile are partly ascribed to pique that its lost out earlier this year to Mittal, the world's leading steel company, in a bid for control of Kryvorizhstal, Ukraine's former state-owned steel firm. Mittal prevailed with an offer of $4.8 billion. And both Arcelor and Mittal recently lost out to a domestic bidder for a slice of Erdemir, a Turkish state-owned steel firm. The past year has also seen a host of smaller deals, such as that announced by Mittal on Wednesday November 23rd to acquire some assets from Stelco, a bankrupt Canadian steel producer.


This wave of mergers, acquisitions and asset sales has helped to revive the fortunes of the world's steelmakers by reducing the chronic overcapacity that had troubled the industry for decades. This has brought new and more effective leadership into a business that was a byword for bad management. The privatisation of assets in former Communist countries in Eastern Europe and other developing economies has boosted the opportunity for consolidation.

By far the most important factor behind steel's revival, however, is China's booming economy. China's soaring demand for steel sent prices spiralling upwards until recently: benchmark hot-rolled coil, which sold for as little as $200 a tonne in 2001, broke the $600 barrier in 2004, though prices have since fallen back (see chart). The boom in prices ushered in a time of profits and high valuations in a business where bail-out and bankruptcy had previously been the norm. But two problems still confront steelmakers.

The first is that their improving lot has not gone unnoticed by those who sell the raw materials that feed the world's steel mills. Suppliers of iron ore grouped together to demand hefty price rises of 72% for their products in March this year, even after obtaining a 19% rise last year. Suppliers of coking coal, also vital to the steelmaking process, insisted on even greater hikes. Early forecasts suggest that iron-ore suppliers could want another big price rise-perhaps as much as 20%-next year. This year's rise is likely to add $40-60 to the price of producing a tonne of steel, just as prices for end users are falling.

The second, and potentially much bigger, concern is that China's vast appetite for the metal-it accounts for 30% of global consumption-could begin to wane. This would prove particularly painful for the industry if Chinese production were to continue rising. In 2004, Chinese mills rolled out 273m tonnes of steel, according to the International Iron and Steel Institute. In the first ten months of this year, they produced 287m tonnes.

China's government, fearful that its rip-roaring growth could lead to overheating, has introduced measures to cool the economy. The effects could soon be felt in China and beyond. Baosteel, the country's biggest producer, has said it will cut prices for its main products by 10% in the first quarter of 2006, because of a nationwide glut. Though the economy continues to grow at rates not far short of 10% a year, even a modest slowdown could result in the steel surplus having an impact on world markets.

The world's big steelmakers are hoping that, by getting bigger, they can reap the rewards in the good times and insulate themselves if things turn nasty. Lakshmi Mittal, head of the eponymous steelmaker, and Guy Dollé, the boss of Arcelor, both agree that the industry will be dominated by a few big firms, each producing over 100m tonnes annually, in the coming years. Mittal, a private London-based company that gained control of America's International Steel Group earlier this year, is set to boost annual output to over 65m tonnes with the Ukrainian acquisition. Even including Dofasco's output, Arcelor would lag some way behind. But both are expanding where they can, snapping up small and medium-sized producers as they become available.

More consolidation would certainly give steel firms extra clout when negotiating ore and coke prices. The world's top five steelmakers still command only around one-fifth of the global market, whereas the three leading ore firms control 70% of supplies. The level of consolidation that would confer significant market power on the largest mills still seems a long way off.

If you can't beat them...
One way to shift the balance of power is to encroach on the suppliers' turf, and a few big steel firms have been doing just that, buying into ore and coke operations. Dofasco is a tempting target partly because it has its own ore business; compared with Mittal and US Steel, Arcelor has few ore reserves of its own. South Korea's POSCO, the world's fifth-largest steel firm, has sought stakes in ore mines in Brazil and Australia. Mittal's thirst for raw materials has even led it to make approaches to an ore producer in Liberia, despite the political uncertainty there.

The big steelmakers hope that further consolidation will help to shift the balance of power in their favour, and they appear convinced that sheer bulk will help them to ride out any future slackening of demand. But size in the steel business does not, in itself, bring great rewards in terms of economies of scale-especially if, as many suspect, predators are overpaying for assets. If world markets are about to experience another serious glut, all producers, big and small, will feel the heat.

[melchor] 22/11/2005 22:21

There are still the strange buys ... 400,000 here at par, 250,000 there at just below par, ... etc.etc.

THE MM'S ARE SHORT ... AND BEING CLEVER AT COVERING THEIR COMMITMENTS.

[rcktmn] 22/11/2005 10:10

I topped up with a measly 18,000 shares this morning.(to add to my original holding of 50,000) .. will continue to top up at these levels while the share price is this low...

Low and behold... someone has gone in with a qty 400,000 also this morning.

Should see good press in this week's Share Mag & IC... can't see this share price staying this low for long (imo)

[rcktmn] 21/11/2005 20:06

Will be topping up again in the morning... small time..

[melchor] 21/11/2005 19:18

I say it again ... the mm's are still finding stock to satisfy the sidebell deal:

very late Friday a deal for 500,000 at par; today deals of 250,000 in the regio9n of par.

This is a way of doing it without making an impact.

I bet over the next few days we shall see similar patterns: overnight deals at near par, between themselves; very late deals in the market.

It is interesting to note that the 500.000 deal on late friday did not appear , at least in one other site, as volume .

When they run out of their own one to one trade deals, they will have to go to market ... and undoubtedly, the way it's happening they will do it as overnight trades or very late in the day trades ... that will be the clue, to justify my calculations .... or send them potty!

[melchor] 18/11/2005 07:44

renixus

thnx

however, i find it all strange ... sidebell was within restricted trade for the last few weeks, and prior to this, there was hardly any activity to point at mm's accumulating enough to satisfy the deal.

In my opinion, the mm's are still short of stock to satisfy this deal.

[renixus1] 17/11/2005 22:22

melchor

The 6MM director buy represents about 2% of the issued share capital. If someone tried to buy 6MM shares in one go I think they would have to pay a lot more the 1.25p. I am sure the shares were bought by a broker over time on behalf of sidebell (who funded the broker account to the tune of 75k) and the broker then transferred the shares from the broker account to sidebell when there were 6MM shares in the account, thereby bypassing the exchange. I think this explains why the MM's were happily absorbing 250,000+ sells over the last month with hardly any impact on the share price (the word must have gone out to holders of large blocks that there was a buyer and they could offload some 250,000+ chunks). I know that's only 2.5k+ worth each time but you've got to remember this is a micro-cap.

The good news is that the share price looks free to move now in any direction now and we're back to the small trades, so lets see what happens. It could spike if a lot of retail interest comes in with very little 250,000+ selling going on. The largest buy in the market lately was a director buy after all.

[rcktmn] 17/11/2005 10:30

Yes, weird share price levels...Who knows how mm work their prices on a day to day basis !
Anyway I've always been in ARC for the long term and will continue to hold...
This'll come good but need to be patient!

[melchor] 17/11/2005 09:33

Weird share price movements:

I still don't understand why the 6,000,000 sidebell's buys have not been stated.

Now, a 200,000 buy and still the share price shows a drop.

Someone pls enlighten me ... especially re: my previous post concerning the notification of the Sidebell purchase into volume.

[rcktmn] 16/11/2005 21:59

Seymour Pierce says buy Arc Risk Management (LSE: ARC.L - news ?

[melchor] 16/11/2005 17:43

One this perplexes me ... perhaps someone out there that knows how the mm's and market works can enlighten me:

Sidebells purchase is stated as having happened today ... yet it is not reflected in the volume of the day.

Can we assume that the 1.25p x 6,000,000 will appear tomorrow? if so, it surely must raise the share price substantially, there aren't many sellers around willing to shed large amounts ... in any case, such a director's purchase must make them hold back further.

On the question of cash-flow and seeking extra funds, i see this as unlikely:

Firstly, this company has always been straight, and if they have needed more funds they have mentioned it and acted together with the announcements

Secondly, if there was a placing in the offing, Sidebell would have been invited. The fact that Sidebell ahs bought in the market, means that they should know there is no cheap way in via a placing.

[melchor] 16/11/2005 17:31

At 1.25p per share!!!

[arics] 16/11/2005 13:42

6 million bought by sidebell @ 1.25p. 75ks worth. Must be on the up!

[unionhall] 16/11/2005 11:31

Best of luck with that rcktmn.

I have not invested yet as I could not decipher the revenue per subscriber etc from earlier results reports.

Now that we know that the RED 24 equates to just over 50% of revenue and has increased five-fold from same period last year gives a lot more to go on vs the numbers signed up. With a bit of analysis it should be easier to see where the company strikes breakeven etc.

imho....