Aoi (Regs) Share Discussion Threads

[eipgam] 08/10/2012 12:21

Thanks Robo... ps I like to bare melons (ooerr) but I suspect you mean 'beginning to bear fruit'

[robochubby] 08/10/2012 12:08

Analyst visit beginning to bare fruit!!


It appears from a sectoral analysis dated 5 October, where Morgan Stanley has an overweight recommendation on Africa Oil's partner Tullow Oil.


"After our field trip and presentations from Afren and Tullows partner Africa Oil, we believe that the opportunity offered in the upcoming Kenyan and Ethiopian drilling campaign has much greater upside potential than Tullow have said. Specifically, we believe that Lokichar area alone by a wide margin could exceed what has been discovered in Uganda, "the investment bank.

[juju44] 08/10/2012 12:07

looking strong for a good start in Canada

[robochubby] 08/10/2012 09:23

On the nail exmoor, I've been in this share for over 2 years. You just arrived?

[exmooroil] 08/10/2012 08:38

Just reflects the Canada close Friday night: C$10.50 x SEK/CAD 6.77 = SEK71.

[robochubby] 08/10/2012 08:11

Nice start on the week +3.45%

[cashandcard] 07/10/2012 20:57

marty51,

That is always going to be a concern, but so far so good. He has done well and learnt from many a PL mistake - particularly on the funding front. Which gives me confidence he will be able to take the company forward and retrieve some of the lost value if not all of it. Its a nice place to be with cash parked-up just waiting for the right project to come along and be able to say, 'no not interested at that price' and just keep hold of Puntland. He has actually confirmed they get to see various deals due to Okap and the Australian networks all the time. They are able to be opportunistic about which projects they take on and he has not jumped at the first opp placed in front of him.

Anyway, forget all that talk, AOI are just weeks away from giving some kind of announcement regards Twiga. Everything I have researched leads me to believe Tullow will hit a home run on that and confirm the 'southern string of pearls' as a valid play. I think we'll see plenty more cautious insti's take interest as further news comes in. I think the news will go along way in confirming to those who doubt the 'region-wide/Better than Uganda' story that this is real and its HUGE and its happening now.

I can't see them sitting on the sidelines for too long, just need Tullow to do what they usually do now. Eagerly awaiting the result.

Cash

[marty51] 07/10/2012 20:00

Agree with a lot of that, Tullow are just amazing arent they and yes he has surrounded himself with a brilliant team.
We are singing from the same sheet I suppose but its good to debate, and on a civilised board too.
I sold RMP at 39p, I was lucky.
It wasnt rocket science when looking at Tullows strike rate was it Cash??
They were a major factor with me too, plus the return on Lundin shareholder record, it became the one for me.
It shows you that its not too late when people discover oil, the re-rate is never instant and if you understand the acerage then there is time.
The hedge funds always steam in heavy after discovery/derisk.
I just think Bandy is too close to Pete Landau and Pete Landau is short of cash and the hat cant keep going round, theres $15m parked up and they share offices, which would make me stand well clear of RMP for now.
Im sure Pete will be trying to do a deal with Greg and his cash right now.
We will see.

Meanwhile AOI is going to make us rich Cash, just sit tight and enjoy pal!

[robochubby] 07/10/2012 18:38

Zzzzz, you really full of bs.

[cashandcard] 07/10/2012 15:40

robochubby,

Its a weekend and I'm having a civilized conversation on something related with Marty. If you are not going to contribute constructively, please find something else to do on your weekend.

Marty51,

KH may have an agenda with Puntland. But he has cost Horn shareholders & (indirectly) AOI with the way the operation proceeded and how events and progress were reported. PL is also worthy of note regarding the hysteria surrounding the Puntland wells and their reporting. I appreciate how trigger-happy he can be, seen it for years now. Surprisingly, its Bandy who crowed the least and was very cautious regarding statements (I've been over statements from all three companies). He has also ensured RMP were not in a weak position like RRL to just be kicked-off the ranch whenever someone else wants in. They may sell-out, but it will be at a greater price than current, they have no funding crisis and ARE the only of three partners actually funded to continue.

Its not great concern if RMP is not run by an oilman - Tullow was founded and still being run by a 'non-oilman' Aiden Heavey. Its the team they have and the business model they pursue that leads to success. Many an oilman have screwed companies up and just as many non-oilmen have actually taken companies to success. Its the business model and, of course, the path to success they pursue. Look at the playmaster approach Tullow live by - absolutely fab. Minimises waste and maximises knowledge quickly on whether to cut or continue in a basin. What Bandy has shown that PL has not is very disciplined approach to fundraising, very disciplined approach to taking on new projects (without any impact on share capital as per his statements). Only diluting when share price is at historic highs. This is atleast the sign of a company that is being managed well financially, they just need to get the other bit (geological) right.

The only reason I invested here is because of Tullow running the projects. I was not even invested here until Tullow announced the initial Ngamia discovery. AOI was too risky at the time. With a discovery however, AOI offers an incredible arbitrage opportunity on Tullows exploration expertise - that is the main reason I invested - to be involved in Tullow-run project but at a much greater leverage than what Tullow stock would give you.

Its the money that matters, and whether its an oilman or non-oilman that can make it, I am not overly concerned. AOI is certainley the one to be in, but (for me) the key to AOI's success in the Rift has been Tullow. Credit to KH for bringing Tullow in and allowing them to discover the oil in an area where it has no similar history of discovery &/or production like Kurdistan or Syria etc.

Cash

[juju44] 07/10/2012 12:23

nice move on Friday and indicators have room for a further run north before being overbought. We could start to see the expectation for more drilling success .Those in the know no doubt already know

[marty51] 07/10/2012 11:45

Hi Cash,

I agree the cash value is where its at so it cant really tank.
Georgias in the bin i presume.
Hill has an agenda with Puntland, the RNSs arent shoddy, they are strategic, he wants a free carry and to get that he needs the other two out.
The moneys going into AOI now.
Puntland will be hard to raise on, and thats his words not mine.

Like I said nobody will take Puntland on with two non-qualified partners and RRL deffo not having the money or interest to keep going, theyre more interested in a siesmic-less dribble some of it with David Lennigas in Trinidad, sums them up really. Still their market cap is over £100m.....how?
RMP have $15m, but if you look in the last RNS he talks of looking for other opportunities I think the gun is loaded Cash.
I expect RMP to sell out and take the cash elsewhere (and mess that up to) theyre not oil people and there are no get-lucky people in oil, only the pros.

I agree wholeheartedly with your last statement, AOI is the one to be in, the sky really is the limit,especially if Twiga come in and you get the feeling it will, remember we have 143m of payzone at Ngamia and Twiga is bigger.
This basin could be major league indeed.


All eyes on Sweden tomorrow.

[robochubby] 07/10/2012 10:03

How about keeping subject matter to AOI?

[cashandcard] 07/10/2012 09:27

Marty51,

I appreciate the sentiment in your comment. To be honest, I agree with alot of it. PL really has blatthered a bit too much. It is the case that one partner will almost certainley have to give up its share. The other, I'm not sure, depends on how their future funding works out. But how Keith Hill reported events at Horn was really shoddy - for an oilman like him, that is just poor.

One bout of seismic and one drill ? Speculation is always good, but we need to look at actual statements and fact. These are the words of RMP CEO in the last Puntland update:

"Finally, Red Emperor wishes to advise the market of its strong cash position
which, after this drilling campaign, will be in excess of $16m. Whilst this not
only represents over $0.06 per share (£0.04), it demonstrates that the Company
is fully funded to cover ANY seismic program undertaken and AT LEAST two more
wells in either Dharoor or Nugaal. It must also be made clear that while the
next PSC will extend for another 3 years, it is the intention of the JV to
progress work as soon as possible and practical in an endeavour to unlock the
value it believes to exist in Puntland"


The reason I even mentioned RMP is because they are valued at cash levels now. Unless Puntland really is worth zero (which I do not believe it is) then RMP current value maybe justified. I rather see it as an attractive opp for new investors aswell as old ones. If another entity does come in and swoop for RMP/RRL, that will likely happen at a level much higher than now.

I think its pretty clear, the only East-African play that will, with an easy certainty, net multiples from now into the next few years is going to be AOI. They have all the best positions. I am long and strong here.

Cash

[eipgam] 06/10/2012 16:10

$47 target... where do they get such a fanciful target from?!?!

[euclid5] 05/10/2012 22:39

Marty,

I sense that is the case with NEW & Inst's doing a good job keeping her sub 10p - but think the timing is wrong to complete a placing whilst drilling as it sends the wrong signal to the markets & doubt they will funds her now knowing if she dusts they will be down 50% plus on their capital

They should hit Yalbac 1 payzone first, assuming they get the trap target right

[marty51] 05/10/2012 18:14

euclid thanks.
I fear a lowball placing with NEW maybe 9-9.5p coming, sold 2/3 of mine.
Going to stay in and if theres a payzone will be filling up,until then its a pure punt.

Been off the boards for a bit I get too stressed with other stuff.


$10.35 as I post, this is the difference between a drill that is going to come up trumps and a duster, the share price is reflecting we will strike at Twiga now.

Share of the year.

[itsonlyme2] 05/10/2012 17:07

SP ticking up, we are the right side 10 bucks now lol lol, be glad to see another 0 on the end of that one day

[euclid5] 05/10/2012 17:05

Marty , must admit a very good post above re: RRL & RMP - as you say investors have lost total trust in these BOD's

[meljohn] 05/10/2012 16:03

They thought there was oil in Jessoma, cash, and they changed the TD at SN because they seemed pretty sure. But they were wrong. Certainly there were shows, but we now know that they only inidcated that there WAS oil - everyne now seems sure that the seal was breached by tectonic movement and the oil has migrated. Finding it may not be so easy. I entirely agree, cash, that they need to learn lessons from successful wildcatters such as TLW who would never have selected the sites on the basis of 2D seismic and a lot of historical surveying.