Aoi (Regs) Share Discussion Threads

[rayrac] 13/8/2021 12:05

I had nothing in rare metals Martin, looked at it and went for it. Diversity is the word and modern world demand that is changing fast.

I’m sticking with what I have now. Largest bet is OYL btw.😜

[martinfrench] 13/8/2021 11:05

i dont use stockopedia but nice they agree

[martinfrench] 13/8/2021 11:04

i think ths are stockopedia's top quality stock, 99/100, i dont know of any other stock on entire lse as good as ths

problems they have though, under the radar, not many trades, and mostly based on rhodium price

but, they are worth £3 all day long.

like aoi, they have invested, and when vulcan comes on stream q3, more chrome, which is doing very well, and as long as rhodium stays at a good level, they will move to 200k pgms, and they have enormous margins

also they are going to be smelting their own gear soon, so thats 15% saved, many millions

awesome mine life too.....

[martinfrench] 13/8/2021 11:02

you dont mess around ray do you.....

i'm very well versed in slp (also great though ths are better) and ths

what did you like about ths ? (just checking to see you have done your due diligence :-)

[rayrac] 13/8/2021 10:57

Bought ths almost first thing, just what I’ve been looking for so no worries Martin

[rayrac] 13/8/2021 09:33

Looking at THS.

[martinfrench] 13/8/2021 09:14

and of course broker reports will follow.......i think as q3 will be better, we should be rough guess looking near $2 canadian by yr end

longer term, the average lundin company increase is near 4000%, historically

[martinfrench] 13/8/2021 09:07

np ray, i always try and help people that appear fairly decent make money, especially when they do their own research (dont like blind punt types usually)

so we are up over 11% in sweden, great day beckons on the tsx

the dividend, buyback thing was mentioned, and he said maybe year end

what is amazing about aoi is the shear amount of cash they generate from nigeria, it was one hell of a deal, did require a lot of debt initially but terms just get better and better

results included some extras on gas revenue, nigerian oil terms are getting better (we can develop an extra field in nigerian basin with chevron), and company debt largely paid, just the prime debt left which is seriously getting reduced


i did like the close to $300 million in the pot of prime, that will either get used for debt reduction or dividends, either way, its a cash machine and these fields have a 10-12 yr life i think, so this is just the start


so a 700 mill CAD company eaqrning 2-300 mill per yr ??? plus all that exploration, plus kenya, plus AFE which is worth 3 * current mcap (i have lots here too)


just too good not to pass on, and yet it seems its just me and you lol

[rayrac] 12/8/2021 23:20

I liked the results, talking of dividend payments end of year……

Africa Oil is considering the option to institute a shareholder capital return program by end of this year, which could include a dividend policy and/or share buyback program, subject to the necessary approvals."

Thanks Martin, for putting me in the path of AOI

[rayrac] 12/8/2021 21:01

Frontera actually put theirs out after hours yesterday.

Yes, Impact swayed it. Plus of course, it gives entry into other oils that I’m keen on.

[martinfrench] 12/8/2021 20:32

if this was against style, and as already scheduled for after mkt, people would be selling, so can relax i hope

was impact the main reason you bought ?

i remember my first few yrs aoi, went to $10 plus on 100$ oil, when kenya was going great, made 50k paper profit didnt sell, and had far less thaqn now


i dont make those mistakes anymore !

[rayrac] 12/8/2021 20:11

Fine, if that’s what they do, then fine.

[martinfrench] 12/8/2021 19:41

..... i dont think anything to worry about,,,,:-)

[martinfrench] 12/8/2021 19:24

correct, its only q2 earnings, nothing to be worried about, and yes they can do that over there, its often after mkt close.

agree, would be lead balloon time over here

we know the dividends so not much to say really, and if i were keith hill i would do other impactful stuff in a seperate mews item

i'm not expecting much at all. might see the increased opec+ numbers for nigeria, not sure.

at some point he will have to stir up interest because the news flow going fwd is going to be bit higher

[rayrac] 12/8/2021 19:02

Is it right we are getting news after market close in Canada Martin? Which seems a strange move to me, wouldn’t go down to well over here?

[martinfrench] 12/8/2021 17:51

Agreed ray, though we own 30 percent prob enough, and it's Nigeria that is the real catalyst because that powers everything else

[rayrac] 12/8/2021 15:55

I really like the Impact oil and gas holding. If they did float I’d be sorely tempted.

[martinfrench] 12/8/2021 10:22

actually on a full hit venus with usd / cad conversion, is fairly close to aoi mkt cap :-) but still maybe 1-200 mill short but still......

[martinfrench] 12/8/2021 10:20

impact guy has put chance of success at 33%, 2 billion barrels target for venus from what i can gather from the video above

i dont really like to do expected value but i will

33% * 6% * $4 (conservative, but due to deepwater nature) * 2 bill barrels

= $158 million (therefore unless they get a lot more oil in ground price than $4, or they hit more than 2 billion, i correct myself, will not be worth same as aoi mkt cap

[martinfrench] 12/8/2021 09:54

offshore namibia......this might be partly behind the recent aoi share price move, hard to say

if its like reco's effort......interesting

[martinfrench] 12/8/2021 09:53

all about impact, guy says (as of may mind you) that drill is q3 21

also they have 37% of afe

[martinfrench] 12/8/2021 09:39

i wouldnt hold your breath on results ray, we already know the dividendfs received from prime, so its kind of comments especially around what prime can / cannot do, as nigeria drives all cash flow as you will know by now

yes, they have 20% eco, 30% impact, and 20 and not quite sure the africa energy % (but is significant

impact is the most interesting one, its a private company and they have 20% of venus, and this is a q4 21 well coming up (though gets delayed).

as aoi will own 6% indirectly, and this is a very deepwater drill, and multi billion barrels, a hit there would be worth AOI's mkt cap alone, roughly


this is what makes AOI such an interesting play, it has a mix of every bloody thing, proven producing assets (nigeria), upcoming drills (AFE, Impact, ECO), and a proven field to be developed (kenya)

[rayrac] 12/8/2021 08:53

I take it their interests in Guyana are through ECO, an old holding of mine. I’ve moved over to OYL as you may know. They are about to drill closer to the Exxon finds.