Antonov Share Discussion Threads

[crystalclear] 17/7/2006 11:10

I don't think that is true Little Bert.

Your assumption is that shares can be bought in large quantity by Toyota at the current price. In the past I have knocked a million pounds off Antonov's market capitalization trying to sell £1000 worth. The Market Makers immediately dropped the share price on me and no shares were actually traded (in London).

So Antonov's market cap can swing a million pounds on no trade just by the market makers trying to scam investors.

[littlebert] 17/7/2006 10:20

Well sorry lads - I've seen some share price drops over the last twenty years but can't remember anything dropping 60% when the only news flow was an extension to an agreement because of wording in a QA document, and the removal of financial uncertainty by way of a 'debt for equity' issue.

I know I have the 'Un-Midas touch' but this is getting very silly. To remove ATV from the map and thus nullify any legal action will now only cost Toyota £15m... or about what it spends on advertising in the US each month !!!

[crystalclear] 04/7/2006 11:25

From

Hi Ron,



I appreciate your frustration.



Just to make clear the issues over the last few days, the share price collapse seems to have been mostly triggered by the reporting in the Dutch press that we were in financial difficulties due to a journalists interpretation of our 2005 results issued on Friday.



The results were issued under the new IFRS regulations that are very restrictive and which have been imposed in this way by our auditors. We had no choice over either the form of the release nor the timing.



We have tried to correct the incorrect reporting, but unfortunately a number of journalists chose to report the incorrect story rather than anything from Antonov and we have been working hard all day to correct this.



I have spoken with many shareholders today and will be happy to continue to do this.



I am as frustrated as you are with the Dutch press who continue to seek the negative in everything we do regardless of the true situation.



I hope that the work we are doing will continue to bear fruit and there will continue to be a steady improvement so that a setback such as that with GWM is seen as just that, a setback in an otherwise positive progress, and not as a sign that the end of the world is coming.



Best Regards



John

[crystalclear] 04/7/2006 10:50

hebgb - 3 Jul'06 - 09:19 - 745 of 751
I see Antonov are having trouble with their Great Wall Motor Company licensee. I sincerely hope for CCs sake that they can sort it out.

Thanks for the kind thoughts hebgb.

I think it is just GWM doing their due diligence and needing clarification on certain things - eg pushing for lower costs from suppliers - before taking over from Powertrain. As I see it, even if they drop out,Antonov could get somebody else to put the transmission into production. I believe GWM have had a query for 50,000 transmissions a year from another manufacturer, so I believe the demand is there.

GWM have started their own small car programs too and really need a small automatic transmission. If they went for the dual clutch Antonov then I don't think they would be able to get to market in time for vehicle launch.

Without GWM Antonov have the result of the Toyota court case, where Toyota have been putting Antonov CVTs in the Prius for a few years noz, and they will owe us royalties. Roumen believes that the CVT patent desribes gears, motors, petrol engine, car wheels and how they are all connected together. Thus royalties are arguably due on the cost of the vehicle rather than the gears themselves. I believe punitive damages are normally awarded when patents are illegally used, to discourage further criminal acts.

Antonov have their "bankable deal" with Honda from February 2002 too. That should be nearing production, and my hopes are on Honda Precision Parts Georgia or another American operation, both due to start production around the middle of this year.

Finally, a quick solution for anybody struggling to meet ACEA-by-2008 fuel requirements could be to downsize their engines and put in an Antonov supercharger, like in the Antonov AR 500 Mustang - so named as it has 500 horsepower.

So yes, there is a disparity between Antonov's market capitalization and Torotrak's. But I think the Toyota court case and Honda production might sort that out for once and for all, later this year.

Antonov might need to replace GWM. I sincerely hope not. But as a full service transmisison design company, they can get somebody else to manufacture. When Antonov were just an IP company, Honda owned the Honda transmission designs when Antonov helped Honda. But with Antonov helping GWM, Antonov own the transmission design and it wouldn't be too hard to replace GWM with whoever were Antonov's second choice.

Wacky films sent Fluffy and the script writer round to our house a week ago with camera etc and they have now chosen another boy to play the part of Tom in the film L'etoile Manquante. But if there is anyproblem, they could fall back on my lad, as he is still keen to play the role. In the same way, I bet there is another Chinese company somewhere sad at having to play reserve to GWM and not having been chosen for production of the 5th generation Antonov 6-speed.

=

PS.
With the drop in Antonov's share price, the Toyota court settlement could exceed Antonov's market cap. That wouldn't be a bad return on investment for anybody buying Antonov now and waiting until the end of August for a court decision, plus a bit longer for share price reaction etc.

[3parsnips] 04/7/2006 09:35

Re: 2x RNS at/near the close last Friday 30th June 2006

RNS 4.21pm Friday 30th june 2006 : Impact of IFRS Adoption


RNS 4.29pm Friday 30th June 2006 : Trading update GWM Option Agreement


-----------
3Parsnips

[iec4] 03/7/2006 14:14

RNS Number:5683F
Antonov PLC
03 July 2006


Antonov Plc ("the Company")

Funding in place


Following a number of recently published inaccurate press articles the Company
would like to announce that as at 30th June 2006 it has a fully committed Euro
1.9 million remaining on the Euro 6 million facility announced in June 2005,
which is being met by a significant London based institution. The Directors are
also confident that further facilities will be made available if required.

[pkw] 03/7/2006 10:29

LB - but you can bet your life on it that MMs will turn it round in the blink of an eye on something positive, such as German court ruling that Toyota has to pay ATV damages for breach of patent and ongoing fees for future use, or Great Wall confirming that this was all a matter of fine tuning and clarification(as Chinese always seek) or Honda bidding for ATV even! Some say that we will see £1.50 this year - I hope so and can (just about) believe so. Certainly looks way too low based on what is likely over next few months.

[littlebert] 03/7/2006 09:06

Hell of a drop considering how many shares have been traded. As with most of these things, the MMs have decided to kill the market, rather than make one, until the dust settles.

[jessica5] 03/7/2006 08:02

How it pays to get a good broker 40000@76.50...

[ariane] 01/7/2006 10:43

Antonov warns on full-year sales on gearbox production delay

[ariane] 30/6/2006 17:53

Antonov warns on FY sales on gearbox production delay

LONDON (AFX) - Antonov PLC said it won't achieve market expectation for
full-year revenue of 2 mln eur due to a licence problem stopping China's Great
Wall Motor Company Ltd (GWM) producing the company's six-speed gearbox.
In January, GWM entered into a six month option agreement to take up a
licence for the company's automatic gearbox. However, the parties have not yet
been able to achieve the level of information required by GWM's stringent risk
management procedures and as a result, the production programme at GWM has been
halted.
Antonov said it is continuing to work to address the outstanding issues,
primarily key supplier costs, lead times and production investment levels.
As a result, the company will resubmit a detailed production plan, which
fulfils GWM's risk management requirements, in September. Antonov has extended
the term of the option agreement to Sept 30.
It is expected that, following the current reassessment, the company will be
able to provide a further update at that time.
[e-mail]
joy

[crystalclear] 30/6/2006 12:49

Try if you really want to discuss Antonov. Lots is in Dutch, but they will welcome a new English speaker.

At the moment we are waiting for :-

Honda production: maybe later this year, maybe not.
Toyota court case decision: a couple of months time, end August.
Income from superchargers and Great Wall Motors to hit the books, end Sept?
Great Wall decision on going further: hopefully this year too.





As previously announced, Honda Transmission Manufacturing of America (HTM) in Russells Point, Ohio, is now completing a $100 million expansion for production of primary transmission gears. Further, in July 2006, HTM will begin production of high precision gears.

As previously announced, May 12, 2006, further localization activities will be pursued in the area of transmission production. Honda Precision Parts of Georgia (HPPG) will further expand its capabilities by adding casting and machining of transmission cases and other in-house operations to its current capabilities. HPPG began assembly of automatic transmissions for the Honda Pilot and Odyssey, May 1, 2006.


The three years or so that it takes to develop for production is over, and we can expect Antonov based products from Honda any time now. The question is just what they will make. These are two remote possibilities.

[littlebert] 30/6/2006 12:03

Very quiet on here - everyone gone on hols?

[crystalclear] 30/5/2006 12:18

PS. Antonov are presenting their supercharger to UK investors so the price is likely to move if some investors decide to buy more and others decide to sell.

[crystalclear] 30/5/2006 12:17

If they want to accumulate stock they they ought to raise the offer price to make sure that nobody buys. If the spread is tight, it is probably that one MM has stock to sell and another is trying to buy.

To have stock to sell at such a low price means either that the MMs are related to a party that is prepared to let go at a low price.
Who might want to let go at a low price?
1) Somebody who aquired stock cheaply (ie been part of the Antonov fund raising, and is able to turn a profit);
2) Somebody who believes the price will fall, (eg a shorter or disillusioned investor who wants to prevent a loss);
3) Somebody manipulating the price, (eg somebody who has something to looose by the price rising, like a CFD or spread betting company).

I rule out that a CFD of spread betting, would supress the price like that, as they might have to sell for a prolonged period and loose a fortune just to prevent a rise which might be inevitable.

4) I guess there is a 4th possibility and that is somebody who wants to aquire stock cheaply, ie that thinks Antonov might be raising further funds, and that thinks that by supressing the price on a small number of shares traded they can get a good deal on a large number of shares bought at a supressed price.

=

In any event, volatility means that suckers will loose money and wise investros will profit from the differences.

[mangal] 30/5/2006 09:47

The spread has suddenly narrowed to 2p. Are the MMs running short of stock?

[littlebert] 30/5/2006 08:21

That's 4p of the drop back on very little trading - can we have the other 15p back now please :-)

[crystalclear] 29/5/2006 23:40

ZF are getting in on the dual clutch transmission market.

[crystalclear] 27/5/2006 18:35

Quantum's Tecstar Automotive Group will be taking an Antonov AR 500 Mustang on the Hot Rod Power Tour, see link above.

The share price?
We often read things on bulletin boards like the market makers have marked it down so they can stock up cheaply, prior to any Great Wall agreement or Toyota settlement.

I have no idea whether they are trying to buy cheap; prevent holders selling; encourage new trading to start, in an otherwise stangnant market; or whatever. To a sensible investor, rapid changes in the price do nothing apart from creating possible opportunities, as large short term price swings must create overvalued or undervalued stocks.

[littlebert] 23/5/2006 19:48

I realise the whole market has just taken a kicking, but ATV seems to be friendless right now.... did I miss any negative press coverage/RNS?

[crystalclear] 18/5/2006 20:38

2003 Le Mans winner Peter Kox drove me round the Zandvoort grandprix circuit in a 500 HP Antonov AR Mustang on Tuesday. He's a very skilled driver and a polite guy. He'll look at you when he's talking to you; even if he's drifting 500HP of American muscle car round the bends on a grand prix circuit at the time.

I tried to video the Lamborghini going down the straight, but it is just a little dot, then moves out of frame as you can't turn the camera at the right speed, and then there is the thunder-flash in the distance as it backfires going into the long sweeping Tarzan corner. So there is not much to see there on camera, but it is impressive enough as it flashes bye in real life.

The shareholders' meeting was good. It seems like a steady plod of gentle progress in the right direction.

[littlebert] 11/5/2006 14:47

2% drop on 100 shares seems a bit harsh!