Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jtidsbadly] 09/7/2022 18:34

1347: yes, Mercuria’s intentions are the key variable if Anguish can’t pay them on the due date. If Anguish can’t raise any more money to do so, their continued existence will be of no interest to Mercuria, surely? So far, shareholders have been willing to bail them out, which has been, in effect, free money to Mercuria (assuming their intention is to take the assets in due course). If Anguish’s advisers tell them the game’s up as far as placings are concerned, my money would be on Mercuria declaring a default and taking the assets. But why would Aleph have put up £3mm. with the promise of another £2mm. if this is the case? Unless the £3mm. worth of shares have been sold and the £2mm. is not going to materialise?

[1347] 09/7/2022 18:07

JT Well if you take a price of 250 p per Therm then it's going to come to about £2.4 million by the end of July owing to Mercuria, with no income from Poundland if they can't get it all connected up and approved in the next 20 days. If Mercuria don't cut them some slack on the swaps they're going to need a bigger mirror and lots of smoke aren't they?

[3put] 09/7/2022 17:57

Few rumours on telegram that BOOM will go Boom next week!

[jtidsbadly] 09/7/2022 17:56

1347: I’ve only just had a look at your earlier attachment re the NG’s requirements before gas can flow! I hope this document hasn’t been collecting dust for the past 12 months in the bottom drawer of the Business Development Director (non-Board)’s desk, what?

It looks as if you may well have been right about the source of the natural gas they’ve been using for testing purposes! July must be looking a bit difficult, I should say. Knowe will have to hurry if they convert that loan and want to sell some of the resulting shares. Aleph must be getting the wind up too, surely? Still, they’ve got Hollis, what? He could probably knock out the NG’s requirements in an afternoon, with his extensive experience. Now where’s that port?

[3put] 09/7/2022 17:37

Vertex, what?

[jtidsbadly] 09/7/2022 16:53

1347: I wouldn’t even try to guess. But it looks as if they may have to resort to more jiggery-pokery to get out of this situation, what?

[1347] 09/7/2022 14:55

JA/JT As I suspected they appear not to have flowed the wells yet, or at least not used gas from the wells for that test. I now don't see any way that they will be selling gas in July, which means they need to find that money from somewhere or get the start of the cash flow swaps pushed back, if possible. What's the best guess for the NBP price / therm they'll use through July 2022?

[jtidsbadly] 09/7/2022 13:14

JA51: even with their latest £5mm. placings proceeds, they won’t be able to do the work required in your last paragraph. In fact, if it’s not producing before the end of the month, they’ll owe money to Mercuria on the July forward contract - unless, of course, the gas price falls below 40p/therm. In my view, they’ll have to raise money just to do this.

There’s a lot of cars parked on site, what? The costs must be astronomical.

1 July - Drop Dead Date.

[3put] 09/7/2022 11:02

How early do you see gas?

[ja51oiler] 09/7/2022 10:36

3PUT
If that footage is from yesterday, then we won't be seeing gas by the 12th. The flare knock-out pit isn't finished and still has chapter 8 barriers around it, the gas generator that was supposedly on-site (but wasn't) still hasn't been wired up, and the scaffolding is still in place around the water and condensate tanks. Angus's own Twitter pictures show multiple cables still to be connected, and the site is littered with trip hazards that need to be rectified before HSE signs it off.

JT/1347
I think his lordship said that the 8KM pipeline was to be purged with gas coming from the national grid end? That would explain them being able to test with grid specification gas.

[1347] 09/7/2022 07:38

So where do we think we are with the SAT process at Poundland?

[3put] 09/7/2022 01:17

Footage taken yesterday

[3put] 09/7/2022 00:05

Onetomany: I can’t see anything wrong with past

It's up 100% in last 6 months, I agree JT

[jtidsbadly] 09/7/2022 00:02

Onetomany: I can’t see anything wrong with past.

HITS: questioning other posters’ motivation is a boiler room tactic so I won’t indulge. The fact is, however, that these rude types have done no work on the company, they merely parrot the verbal output of the discredited company management. The fact that not a single company assurance or forecast has come to pass in the way the management said it would doesn’t seem to register. So it’s a bit of a waste of time even engaging with them.

The Interim MD said 1 July was “the drop dead date”.

[3put] 08/7/2022 23:55

One: HITS has been kind enough to transfer me some of his cash. I'll let him have this one!

[headinthesand] 08/7/2022 22:43

New friendly sweepstake.

How late will 3Put's crushingly naive estimate for first gas be? He said June 21st.

a. 1 week (not selectable - already past)
b. 2 weeks (not selectable - already past)
c. 3 weeks (hurry - only a few days left)
d. 4 weeks (in 10 days' time)
e. by July 31st
f. some time in August
g. even later

[3put] 08/7/2022 22:09

The question he should be asking is why the shareprice is up 100% over the last six months!

Answers on a postcard

[3put] 08/7/2022 22:06

Name me any other contract in the world where a lender has handed over 12m and defaulted at first opportunity?

Fear is easier to sell and JT is a used car salesman

[jtidsbadly] 08/7/2022 21:39

The answer to the first question is 10 weeks ago.

The answer to the second - what was his term for 1 July? - was the “drop dead date”. Why did he use this term? He was still predicting “first gas” in mid-June and the interview was 30 May. I've said this before, but the sidetrack may prove to be a sideshow. If they can’t make the forward contract payments at the end of July, the Mercuria division which negotiated the hedge contracts should be able to call it a default, in which case the Charge conditions will be triggered.

The good news for them today is the big late fall in the UK gas price but it’s highly volatile, could be anywhere on the end-July contract date.

[onetomany] 08/7/2022 21:33

Sidetrack will start this month.