Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[chickbait] 30/5/2022 19:45

JT you are making this all up aren't you?

[1347] 30/5/2022 19:44

Let's be clear on what the waffle merchant actually said in the last RNS:

"With a conservative estimate for wet commissioning we are confident of being able to make initial nominations, or First Gas, toward the middle of June. We aim to focus on new opportunities as soon as this milestone is achieved."

This is now a nomination or First Gas, not actual delivery of gas to the network (you don't get paid for flaring it). All this means is filling in a form stating what you expect to deliver when, with probably a shortish flow test to determine the gas flow. Is it just a coincidence that mid June is the date of the GM? I think not.

Oh and there's that word 'confident' again. I have a list of the statements on costs and timescales that were not met, I am at number 24 now and that's excluding the nauseating media interviews, such as the one today.

It's obvious to all but the most intellectually challenged that progress on site indicates that flowing gas to the network in any quantity is very unlikely in June and maybe even July or August is now at risk. Until I see confirmation that the EA have issued a new permit and that the HSE and National Grid have approved the site everything else is just noise.

[jtidsbadly] 30/5/2022 19:42

The Interim MD said they would end up with a Board of seven people, after the appointment of two nominated by Aleph and (presumably) Mr. Forrest. Anguish have 5 Directors now. Who will stand down? Presumably he can’t leave his fellow Earl with no visible means of support? Hollis has joined the SEL Board, with Lucan. Stand up, Mr. Buchanan?

Also, he said the new windfall tax will not affect them because they’ve got £20-30mm of pre-existing tax losses. Surely he’s read the published drafts of the proposed new tax?

[chickbait] 30/5/2022 18:50

JTidsbadly30 May '22 - 18:34 - 23134 of 23135
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Chickbait: I’ve copied this here before, many months ago when the term first arose. This is the definition of “first gas” from the “Law Inaider” website:

“First Gas means management’s current estimate of the date on which natural gas will first be made available to the relevant project. Full commercial operations of such projects will occur later than, and may occur substantially later than, the First Gas date.”

It’s impossible to know whether this is what the inexperienced Interim MD means by the term, but it may be, what?

It makes no sense?

[tidy 2] 30/5/2022 18:36

They announced last week 2 weeks delay.

[jtidsbadly] 30/5/2022 18:34

Chickbait: I’ve copied this here before, many months ago when the term first arose. This is the definition of “first gas” from the “Law Inaider” website:

“First Gas means management’s current estimate of the date on which natural gas will first be made available to the relevant project. Full commercial operations of such projects will occur later than, and may occur substantially later than, the First Gas date.”

It’s impossible to know whether this is what the inexperienced Interim MD means by the term, but it may be, what?

[chickbait] 30/5/2022 18:25

Did George say first gas 1st of June 2022 or June 2023?

[jtidsbadly] 30/5/2022 18:21

Forum’s accounts are out too. He’s moved his registered office out of the Lucan Fashion registered office address, to Isleworth. Doubtless a useful economy.

[jtidsbadly] 30/5/2022 18:07

The SEL Companies House site has been updated, including the latest accounts, to May 2021. Do you suppose Mr. Forrest paid himself an interim dividend this year? We won’t see Accounts for the year ending May 2022, will we, so we’ll never know? Interesting timing, what?

[chickbait] 30/5/2022 17:46

So after looking at the planning permission for Saltfleetby at the bottom it says Hydrostatic testing. On the Twitter feed today it said Hydrotesting which led me to believe this may be the wet commissioning as this is due.

Apparently not.

So lets make an educated assumption that hydrostatic and hydrotesting are both one and the same and only commenced this morning 20/05/2022 we can do some calculations on completion dates:

So the August 2020 planning application says that the hydrostatic/hydrotesting was due to commence: 19/10/2020 and be completed 10/11/2020

This would take 16 days Monday to Friday not including weekends and bank holidays.

If we now use today as the start date: 20/05/2022 and apply 16 working days without weekends and bank holidays then the planned completion date will be: 13/06/2022 as the Queens jubilee is a 4 day bank holiday.

Now lets look at commissioning. From the August 2020 planning application commissioning(WET)commences the same day that the hydrostatic/hydrotesting is complete. 10/11/2020 and planned to be complete early 2021 so lets be generous and say 04/01/2021

This would take 36 days Monday to Friday not including weekends and bank holidays.

So now if we add up the the amount of working days to complete the works from the August 2020 planning permission to todays date then this when I calculate the earliest date for first gas at Saltfleetby will be 29/07/2022

Commence hydrostatic/hydrotesting 16 working days 20/05/2020 Completion: 13/06/2022
Commence commissioning(WET) 36 days 13/06/2022 Completion: 29/07/2022

I am sure I have got this completely wrong as the date GL gave for first gas is the 1st of June.

If anyone thinks I have got any dates and timescales wrong working on a best case scenario then please feel free to correct me. (These are figures I have used from the Angus August 2020 planning permission document and there may be an updated one which I am unaware of?

If my figures are correct then the earliest for first gas will not be the 1st of June but the the 29th of July 2022?. (Also, please note that on the commissioning document it only said early 2021 so you make of that what you want?

I'm assuming first gas is when everything is linked up to the gasline and producing?

Look forward to being corrected..

[chickbait] 30/5/2022 17:44

From looking at the planning permission form for SFB that JA51 posted the link to it looks like the hydro testing is separate to the wet commissioning?

I would imagine that they will have shut off valves at certain points throughout the network of pipes so can hydro test each section which has been completed. Then I would imagine that when all completed sections of the hydro testing has been done then they will open all valves and commence the wet commissioning?

If we go by the date that were given in the last planning for SFB there is no way they will be producing gas until at least July if my calculations are correct?

[jtidsbadly] 30/5/2022 16:59

Try not to be a nosey parker, Jonny. No IQ answers today. Have you got any idea why not? I have.

[jtidsbadly] 30/5/2022 16:55

Chickbait: I agree with you. How can they hydro-test plant that hasn’t been welded? When did it dawn on him that there were three times as many welds to be done as he stated only two or three months ago? Appalling. He said how many electrical connections have to be completed in all but not how many remain to be done. No twitter updates for a week. No answers to the IQ’s, which should have been answered today. They’re not fully funded either. They won’t be until the EGM vote is taken. Even then, it may need to be spent on meeting the hedge contracts. I don’t think it’s too late to get the wind up.

[3put] 30/5/2022 16:43

Myles has been working it hard today on telegram Chick

[chickbait] 30/5/2022 16:40

This is a gas field. You can't just rush it and turn on the taps can you what, what?

[chickbait] 30/5/2022 16:38

If they have not started wet commissioning yet then 1st gas even mid June sounds wildly optimistic. Also, if they are still welding the pipes they can't wet commission them yet either. How can they achieve first gas, first gas production without full wet testing and then it all being signed off within 4 weeks before the hedge kicks in in July. It will not IMO. DYOR...

[jtidsbadly] 30/5/2022 16:03

Not only a troll, Jonny, but a dashed nosey parker. Do you think they can drill the sidetrack while producing gas? Kindly answer the question. I have more for you.

HITS: who knows? This is looking so tricky, there could be an understanding between the parties that Forum will vote against the second placing with Aleph at the EGM if the share price then is close to or below 1.10p. What would they have to lose? It would leave responsibility for keeping Anguish afloat where all these chaps know it belongs - with the mugs who’ve backed it thus far. Read your Darwin, what?

[chickbait] 30/5/2022 15:54

Has the wet commissioning started yet?

[headinthesand] 30/5/2022 15:41

There's some very usual suspects that have just become very vocal next door (one rather stupidly called TradeDesk).

I wonder if Aleph needs a little extra help shifting more than the 40% of their first swathe of 273 million shares that they parted with £3 million for?

At this rate, Aleph won't have any left to sell, by the time the (E)GM comes round to give George approval to flog Aleph a second tranche at 1.09p odd.

[jtidsbadly] 30/5/2022 15:32

No, it really isn’t. Trolls are characterised by attacking the person, usually in foul language, and avoiding any debate on the fundamentals of a company.

1347: yes, you’re right, of course. Why do I keep looking at Twitter for one of the promised daily or weekly updates and why do I keep looking at the website for answers to investor questions? They're going to dodge the vital one, aren’t they?

My previous post, of course, ignored the requirement on the part of the Lenders for Angus to maintain a specific minimum cash balance. In view of this, I’m not sure what the Interim MD can do, other that talk the share price up and keep dumping shares on the market. In Sharecoin Sanderson’s steps he trod...

[wg818] 30/5/2022 15:03

Sincero1 it is the 1 question the Goons will never answer and we all know why. TROLLS.