Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ultimatejustice9] 14/9/2021 10:35

Gas price up to 166. If we get to £2 George will have his hand forced

[jtidsbadly] 14/9/2021 10:33

1347: we’ve both been saying this. What I’m saying is that it’s truly ridiculous that we don’t know. I’d ask the question if I didn’t care so much about anonymity. There’s not many who seem to understand the issue on the other board. It’s a perfectly simple thing to tell shareholders, hedge contracts are not that complicated. It’s just stupid to make predictions, as the optimists do on the other board, about what Anguish will make next summer: there are too many variables. But this hedge issue is as important as the gas price.

[headinthesand] 14/9/2021 10:33

The absolutely fundamental point has always been - as I and to be fair a few others have been pointing out for a while...

How much gas will ANGS be able to coax out of Poundland if/when they eventually get production going?

It's a very simple equation. Will (monthly volume produced x selling price) be equal to or greater than (monthly fixed costs + monthly variable production costs + monthly incurred debt funding costs)?

Separately, what amuses me about all the rampers nursing semis over future gas prices are two things.

1. ANGS is a (no) Oil and (still no) gas company.

2. The hedge in place caps a very large degree of the potential earnable profits on any gas that ANGS may be able to produce for three years from July next year.

Specifically on the hedge, ANGS is committed to selling what must be a contractually agreed and fixed volume of gas on a monthly basisto Shell over that three year period at 43p per therm. As several here have worked out already, this simply must be a fixed monthly volume, as shown by the 03/06/21 RNS:-

"Simultaneous with drawdown, the Company has hedged (the "Hedge") APPROXIMATELY 70% of the Company's and its partners' share of future gas sales, ESTIMATED UNDER A CONSERVATIVE PROJECTION, for three years beginning in July 2022, providing Angus with downside revenue protection, all the while allowing the Company to capture upside in the event of higher gas prices. The average achieved price under the Hedge, including all fees, costs and charges is 43 pence per therm."

(CAPS are mine).

This is therefore clearly not a matter of a mere percentage of production, i.e. a fluctuating volume - it must be a fixed volume that was agreed to be delivered over the period of the hedge.

It is very definitely reasonable to ask the question - what are ANGS's commitments under the hedge agreement, if for any reason it cannot produce that fixed amount of monthly gas over the three year period?

[ja51oiler] 14/9/2021 10:32

1347The first is the Knowe £1.4 million CLN due in April. A decision on paying this back needs to be made by Feb or those warrants at the same value kick into place. I'f they have to convert in April @0.9 they will want shot of them won't they , or the existing 6 odd % before hand. They wouldn't be able to convert without going over the takeover threshold otherwise.

[whocares765] 14/9/2021 10:09

Uclot a hedgefund shorter notoriousMassive dynamics at 150p gas prices for Angus..HTTPS://www.twitter.com/DVH_Phoenix/status/1436618402093748225

[1347] 14/9/2021 10:05

JT - As I've said before a few times now we don't know the type (future, swap, option - it could even be a combination) or the actual amount of gas hedged, therefore the impact cannot be determined at this stage, except to say that these hedges, forced onto them by the lenders, will result in less revenue accruing to Anguish (and therefore attributable to the shareholders).

In any case they will not be able to generate sufficient revenue in time to pay the first loan installment (principal and interest) so they will almost certainly require a fund raise of one kind or another or negotiate a deferment of the first payment.

More twists and turns to come yet on Snake Pass.

[ultimatejustice9] 14/9/2021 10:02

£1.65 for gas, this is going to go crazy if George delivers

[whocares765] 14/9/2021 09:53

Uclot a hedgefund shorter notoriousMassive dynamics at 150p gas prices for Angus..HTTPS://www.twitter.com/DVH_Phoenix/status/1436618402093748225

[jtidsbadly] 14/9/2021 09:47

1347: I don’t understand why Anguish don’t inform their shareholders on the nature of the hedges. It’s fundamentally important. I’ve been back over all their Investor Questions and News releases. All we’ve got is a net cost of 43p per therm. In February they were referring to a “floor”, which actually suggests options.

If they’ve bought a series of put options, they will have been expensive to buy but Anguish can let them expire without exercising them and therefore get the full market price for all the gas they produce.

If it’s forwards or futures, Anguish are on the hook and will have to pay their counterparty the margin between 43p and the prevailing (if higher) price in the market from next July on any shortfall below c.70% of planned production.

If I ran the company and the hedge were in options, I’d be buying the shares. Then I’d inform the market of the nature of the hedges. It’s quite ridiculous that we don’t know. It could be the difference between bankruptcy and riches. If the hedges are in forwards or futures, I’d have a placing quickly, before the news leaked out.

[whocares765] 14/9/2021 09:31

Uclot a hedgefund shorter notoriousMassive dynamics at 150p gas prices for Angus..HTTPS://www.twitter.com/DVH_Phoenix/status/1436618402093748225

[ja51oiler] 14/9/2021 09:26

So we have a hedge fund involved in shorting Angus, do we?

That explains the huge volumes we are seeing then!!

Good job we have your financial skills to help us here.........Clueless!

[whocares765] 14/9/2021 09:13

Uclot a hedgefund shorter notoriousMassive dynamics at 150p gas prices for Angus..HTTPS://www.twitter.com/DVH_Phoenix/status/1436618402093748225

[clottedq] 14/9/2021 09:12

Q:

Will we get YET ANOTHER discount placing before First Gas Delivery?

IMHO: A pretty safe bet - given Anguish is already rolling in huge debt and decommissioning costs!

CQ ;-)

[whocares765] 14/9/2021 09:00

Uclot a hedgefund shorter notoriousMassive dynamics at 150p gas prices for Angus..HTTPS://www.twitter.com/DVH_Phoenix/status/1436618402093748225

[sincero1] 14/9/2021 08:53

uclot - registered to ask a question yet? thought not... are you a coward or disingenuous...or just both?

[clottedq] 14/9/2021 08:48

FOMO?

What... on a discount placing?

I don't think so!

Certainly no need to rush to invest any more here, as gas delivery - of any description - is not due before February next year at the earliest - and that's "a Lucan estimate"... so we all know that's going to drift...

CQ ;-)

[whocares765] 14/9/2021 07:29

Massive dynamics at 150p gas prices for Angus..HTTPS://www.twitter.com/DVH_Phoenix/status/1436618402093748225

[1347] 14/9/2021 07:21

JT: As I've said it's not clear how that figure in the CPR was derived, it doesn't tally with the 2017 OGA figures. As for the ocebot and cuddowivabrain, let them ramp, all the way back to the pre-Lucan share price would be fine with me.

"All lies and jest,
still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest.."

PS: there's that 'he said' again.

[whocares765] 14/9/2021 07:19

Massive dynamics at 150p gas prices for Angus..HTTPS://www.twitter.com/DVH_Phoenix/status/1436618402093748225

[whocares765] 14/9/2021 07:11

Massive Rise since 38p level HugeHTTPS://www.twitter.com/DVH_Phoenix/status/1437330085674168320

[ultimatejustice9] 13/9/2021 23:26

Nothing in life is guaranteed, that is investing

[jtidsbadly] 13/9/2021 22:22

1347: well, if he’d taken the $20mm he said he was offered by a big bank in the Spring of last year, he’d be laughing now, what? But even then, it would have depended on the presence of commercial quantities of gas. The optimistic bloke operating on both chat boards is taking the CPR data as proven fact. It’s not though, is it? The data were provided by Anguish and not checked by the authors of the CPR, as they made clear. And the Anguish data appear to be a lot higher than the OGA data. I wonder why the CPR didn’t take the trouble to cross-reference the figures? The price of gas is barely relevant now. It’s the volume they produce that matters. When will the penny drop re this?

[1347] 13/9/2021 22:05

JT Indeed. Having destroyed 90% of shareholder value he's having a go at the rest. Imagine the revenue they'd be pulling in now if they'd been able to actually get Poundland running, even by the revised schedule for the original cost, with no £12m loan and no forced hedges at 43 p? They never had a cat in hell's chance of course, which makes a number of RNS announcements for about a 15 month period quite questionable in my view.

[clottedq] 13/9/2021 22:03

Boy George should stick to singing and George Lucas should stick to film directing...

As for George Lucan - he should stick to what he knows best IMHO... we just need to establish what that is first?

CQ ;-)

[whocares765] 13/9/2021 21:49

Massive Rise since 38p level HugeHTTPS://www.twitter.com/DVH_Phoenix/status/1437330085674168320