Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jtidsbadly] 13/7/2021 15:45

Sorry, that was unclear. Plant finished end-year or shortly thereafter, according to the interim MD. Then the sidetrack, 16 weeks. First gas to flow some time after that. Once the HSE, EA etc. have approved it all. Early May, with a following wind? Borrow a bit more to repay the Knowe loan? Insufficient revenue to repay the first instalment of the £12mm. loan?

Still no accounts from AEWB3 or Mr. Forrest’s companies. Both increasingly late. Why?

[jtidsbadly] 13/7/2021 15:32

Poundland will work for Angus if their production is as planned, though on P90, it’s going to need more than the CPR gas price assumptions to cover all their costs. A shortfall, whether through a failure of the sidetrack to find gas or some other unforeseen issue with the field, or delays in getting it finished, could bankrupt them.

They’re doing the sidetrack before first gas, as I understand it. First gas end-year or a little later, according to the interim MD, the sidetrack another 16 weeks. So no early earnings bonanza. The risk is clearly of delays in completing the plant and of delays/failure of the sidetrack.

If you fancy it, buy it. I won’t. This shower at Anguish seems to fall into virtually every available pothole. They’re already 12 months behind schedule. And they haven’t got Halliburton bringing the field back into production.

The rising energy prices, incidentally, will be inflationary. The central banks may well decide that they need to raise interest rates at some stage. The loan is LIBOR+12%. There’s a 3% up-front fee as well. 8% of revenue royalty too, once the loan is repaid.

[cantrememberthis2] 13/7/2021 15:30

Sensible conversationHTTPS://t.me/ANGSENERGY

[rmart] 13/7/2021 15:04

and as pointed out by Yanis on the other site, it could well be double the income on 10mmcf/d, but you knew that, right?

[rmart] 13/7/2021 14:39

so you accept that is £4m for Angus in the first 6 months?, easily pays Knowe (if they dont extend or take shares)

Leaves £2.55m. Then another £2.7m over the following 6 months to Angus = Total £5.2m.

£3.36m in loan and interest paid and still @£1.8m left. Debt reduced to £9m.

None of this includes the possibility of the success of the sidetrack to increase gas, Lidsey oil, Possible Brockham oil income and possible new drills at Saltfleetby.

So Saltfleetby is a profit making project in itself. Takes the company from zero income which still has running costs to a multi million income company with lots of potential to increase gas revenues, bring oil back online and become a profit making company.

[jtidsbadly] 13/7/2021 14:31

Ah, you’re seeing the light at last.

[cantrememberthis2] 13/7/2021 14:26

Why don't you short it?

[jtidsbadly] 13/7/2021 14:19

You’ve worked it out on the other site, haven’t you? Except you’ve neglected to subtract £1.45mm. to pay to Knowe in April, £3mm. per annum + interest at 12% on the declining balance to the lenders starting in May for 4 years, £3.5mm. in annual Anguish admin costs, including £1mm. additional supervision costs at Poundland. And after the first four years, the gas flow is predicted to fall increasingly sharply. That extra £12mm. has ruined the economics of Poundland, which many thought were dodgy in the first place. Good luck though.

[rmart] 13/7/2021 14:17

and have they not said they are drilling the sidetrack early?

[rmart] 13/7/2021 14:08

are you not answering the question again?

Assuming switch on Jan 1st 2022 at intial rate of 5mmcf/d how much is that to Angus (51%) for the first 6 months before the hedge kicks in and based on 90p/therm??

[jtidsbadly] 13/7/2021 13:58

They’ll have the choice - in the unlikely event they've got it going by then - of cashing in for six months, or drilling the sidetrack. The problem with the former would be the effect on the p&l of producing less than 70% of their forecast gas from July onwards if prices carry on going up. Those hedges.. Mercuria appears to me to have got them, coming or going. The only hope appears to be a gas gusher, on time, and an early, successful, sidetrack. And no problems with the plant.

[rmart] 13/7/2021 13:29

sums.

Assuming switch on Jan 1st 2022 at intial rate of 5mmcf/d how much is that to Angus (51%) for the first 6 months before the hedge kicks in and based on 90p/therm??

I am sure some here will know. Lets see if they answer?

[cantrememberthis2] 13/7/2021 12:57

Wow
Never have I read a bunch of amateurs beat down a stock they got badly burned in and not have the maturity to move on


So many contradictions it's funny


Average down if you must ffs and get out at 1p

[jtidsbadly] 13/7/2021 12:48

I suppose one can’t expect organ grinders’ monkeys’ monkeys to read straightforward English. For once, I’m not going to repeat myself.

[rmart] 13/7/2021 12:36

Yes he does

[cantrememberthis2] 13/7/2021 12:29

So if you want it to go to 0p why haven't you achieved this objective?You've lost money so you want all Investors to lose money?

[jtidsbadly] 13/7/2021 12:24

“Lucan 2 years in role”. What’s your point? What’s the share price done since his appointment?

No, I don’t want the price to go to 0. I do think there's a reasonable chance it will. We can’t leave these chat sites entirely to ignorant rampers and company shills’ organ grinders’ monkeys’ monkeys, can we?

[cantrememberthis2] 13/7/2021 12:20

Deramping for what gain?What this stock 0p?Sounds like shorters Lucan 2 years in role End of

[jtidsbadly] 13/7/2021 12:15

Market capitalisation/debt is a worthless and irrelevant calculation.

I’ve no idea what Forest Nominees are doing, their accounts are inaccessible. Maybe someone can use Anguish’s tax losses. In August last year there was a nice little pump and dump, which Rupert coincidentally used to get out of his large position without losing much, if any, money. Anything can happen in these AIM companies.

George Lucan misled investors for a crucial six months over the dire straits he’d got the company into. He apparently turned down bank funding for Poundland last Spring, which should have got him to first gas by year-end 2020, only 4-6 months late. Instead, he spent another year or more negotiating crippling financial terms from a commodity trader. I don’t think he had them over a barrel. In my view, if you place credence or derive any comfort from anything he says about Anguish, you’re gullible, or what people refer to as a mug punter.

If he manages to produce sustainably 100% of the CPR’s expected gas production by April next year, I shall apologise for my scepticism, congratulate him and disappear from this board. I don’t rate the chances of this happening very highly. Observe the record.

[cantrememberthis2] 13/7/2021 11:42

As George Lucan saidInstitutional Investors believe this is a risk worth taking150% market cap debt facility £12mThat's a huge uptickAnd don't forget Forest Nominees have snapped up 10.14% in 7months REGARDLESS OF DILUTIONSMASSIVE VALUE PLAY HERE IN ANGUS ENERGYHTTPS://mobile.twitter.com/DeepValueHunte1/status/1414879753962676226

[rmart] 13/7/2021 11:34

nah, I am sure the lenders who lent £12m are not patient, they will be complete idiots who know absoultely nothing about what is going on!, doh, are you being serious ! lol, fool,

chuckle away.

When will you admit things have changed? 1st Gas Switch on?
Or will you still whinge on like children even after that point?

to you,

[jtidsbadly] 13/7/2021 11:34

gkb47: an excellent post by you on the other site. Mine reads like a reproduction of it, but it wasn’t, I’ve only just seen yours there. These shills are having trouble trying to refute demonstrable facts.

[rmart] 13/7/2021 11:33

JTids, your other chuckle brothers seem to be leaving you to it today. You must go and rally the troops, to you to me to you to me etc.

[jtidsbadly] 13/7/2021 11:32

Are you expecting them to be producing gas while they’re drilling the sidetrack? 16 weeks.

No, I’ve no idea what the gas price will be next year, nor next week. All you rampers appear to be saying Anguish will make toms of money because 70% is hedged at 43p. Well, if they don’t produce 70%, they’ll need a lower gas price, not a higher one, with these hedges in place. It’s all about producing at least 70% of planned levels as soon as possible, and by June at the latest, if gas prices stay high. And that’s assuming their various lenders are patient.

[rmart] 13/7/2021 11:25

What about the production from Jan to July? All cash to Angus to pay down the debt, maybe you just forgot that bit.

And do you know what the gas price will be next July? no of course you dont.

repeat, repeat repeat...

When will you admit things have changed? 1st Gas Switch on?
Or will you still whinge on like children even after that point?