Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[1347] 12/2/2023 21:14

JT Yes water and depletion. Well water is pretty much a problem with all wells and I don't think anyone can be sure what the depletion rates will be exactly.

However, it was obvious from the Field Reports and CPR that there was a fair degree of risk with this drill, yet the interim MD stated: "As the term P90 suggests, we have a >90% level of confidence that the side track operation will be successful and it will find the payzone."

I pointed out at the time that hitting the payzone did not mean the well would flow commercially. So in my view that was a disingenious statement, with selective use of terminology. Of course mug punters saw only the 90% figure and the twitter guff so the drill became 'nailed on', even according to Captain Oates, the so called drilling expert over in Kansas.

SF07 was first spud on 4th July 2003 by Roc and the last side-track (until the two later ones by Wingas) on 10th November 2003. Roc then spent a fair bit of time getting that last side-track to flow, doing various pressure tests etc., including a nitrogen lift on 14th April 2004. They managed some 6 to 7 hours of flow and then the well died due to accumulation of water in the wellbore, they then finally gave up I guess. So they weren't actually drilling all that time.

Wingas then had two later attempts in February and March 2016 which we don't have much detail on as there were no subsequent Field Reports (at least that I've seen), but we do know they were abandoned.

As for Theddlethorpe, well yes they had issues there but those aren't really relevant now. To be fair the gas processing at Poundland is holding up better than I expected thus far, but how long before there's a crack in the ice?

Still we trundle on in the old Anguish Energy bus with an interim bus driver, wending our way along Snake Pass, some more tight corners to navigate yet I expect, but we'll see, what's, what; what, what.

[jtidsbadly] 12/2/2023 20:39

JA51: apologies, I seem merely to have paraphrased you. The current drillers have actually been pretty quick, haven’t they? It seems earlier drillers have lost a lot of kit in this well while drilling sidetracks too. And the Interim MD said there was a 90% certainty of a successful sidetrack! Are they still looking for an MD with some oil or gas experience? Next he’ll be telling us they’re drilling for oil in one of the shallower sections.

[jtidsbadly] 12/2/2023 20:15

1347: I’ve skimmed through the Roc/Wingas reports. Neither SF05 nor SF07 has a very distinguished history. I haven’t directly compared the interpretations of the production data in the final Wingas report with the two Anguish CPR’s but can’t help feeling the Wingas reports are less optimistic. Water and natural depletion are clearly identified. In addition, the Theddlethorpe compressors’ reliability/servicing requirement was an ongoing problem and downtime averaged 36 days per annum. 3 days/month. On top of 15% annual depletion in gas flow and increasing water cut. Wingas took it over in the first place as a storage prospect, but decided early on that this was uneconomic, so decided they’d run it as Roc had. One wonders whether they ran the wells as hard as they could. There’s also no mention, as far as I can recall, in the CPR’s of the money required every year to keep an eye on the plugged wells. Wingas appear to have spent a lot on this just after they took it over. Incidentally, that last SF07 sidetrack attempt, as I think JA51 has pointed out, started in about June and carried on until about March the following year. What planet was that drilling company from and why hadn't the Interim MD heard of them? Ack ack ack.

[1347] 12/2/2023 17:44

Oh yes where is the updated cartoon from Looney Tunes? Or will it be 'That's All Folks!'?

[1347] 12/2/2023 17:39

Negan Condensate tends to trade around a similar price to Brent I believe, depending on it's characteristics, I use a $5 discount to Brent in my models. Would be nice if Anguish Energy actually told it's 'investors' what average price they are getting (though whether you could trust it to be accurate is another matter).

[1347] 12/2/2023 17:27

JT I think I've posted this before but the Field Reports are best for the history of SF07 if you, or anyone else, is interested. Start with the April 2004 one. Just select Fields and Vents and find Poundland (aka Saltfleetby).



As for PGOX-Massy, yes I was awere but have not delved deeper. Actully I know more about their previous owner Prospex as they have an interest in an Italian gas field that United Oil and Gas also had an interest in at one point.

[ja51oiler] 12/2/2023 17:25

JT

Drill dates...Ironically GL could have looked himself at previous Saltfleetby drills before his foot in mouth Martian comment regarding timeliness.

SF7Z
Spud 4th July 2003
Sidetrack 8th October 2003
Sidetrack 10th Nov 2003....Abandoned phase 2

SF8

Spud date 27 Oct 2007.
Sidetrack 9th Jan 2008
Sidetrack 10 April 2008
Sidetrack 26 April 2008...Failed and shut-in!

SF7W
Spud 14th Feb 2016
Sidetrack 13 March 2016..Abandoned phase 2

[bionicdog] 12/2/2023 17:25

iceagefarmer
I would imagine that the only thing flaring is your trousers.

[jtidsbadly] 12/2/2023 17:21

Negan: Paul Forrest may seem to a casual observer to have made a rather large profit on the sale of his 49% share of Poundland. I offer no opinion on this. No one can know whether he will retain it all or whether he will be kind enough to share some with others who were not in such a favourable position to benefit from the excellence of his Poundland investment, what?

I tend to agree with you, though - they really don’t know what they’re doing. This third sidetrack seems to be a repeat of Wingas’s in 2002/3, doesn’t it? Why would you spend £8mm+ that, as usual, you haven’t got, on this shot in the dark? It’s Inspector Clouseau stuff, n’est ce pas?

[negan] 12/2/2023 17:09

JT/1347, any ideas of what the condensate is worth to date?

[iceagefarmer] 12/2/2023 17:08

hows it looking chaps..any flaring?

[negan] 12/2/2023 16:40

Well they do when making money for Mercuria, that much is for sure no?

[negan] 12/2/2023 16:39

JT. They Do not know what they are doing!

[jtidsbadly] 12/2/2023 15:56

1347: have you ever looked at PGOX-Massey, where Paul Forrest is the (a?) Director. It appears to own, or did until recently, a 50% interest in a Romanian gas field that was producing well in excess of Poundland, which 50% stake was apparently sold to H2Oil, a consultancy, three years ago for what seems to be a minuscule consideration. I must be missing something, am not going to spend any time on it, just wondered if you’d come across this?

[jtidsbadly] 12/2/2023 15:02

In case anyone’s forgotten, this is the case for their decision to use SF05, not SF07, for the sidetrack:

August 2020 Question:

“Q. I read in the accounts of Wingas that the last well drilled – SF07 encountered a lot of difficulties and had to be shut in.  What makes you confident that you can make more of a success of your proposed sidetrack through SF05 scheduled for 2021? (This question formed part of larger question already published but the full historical data has taken a few days to assemble) Asked on 5 August 2020?

A. The Saltfleetby 7 sidetrack was drilled from the B site towards the West, as can be seen in Figure 5 in the CPR (Structural Map of the Top of Westphalian Reservoir (Unit 2b)). The well was first perforated in the Brinsley Abdy formation, but failed to flow oil. Thereafter there was significant differential sticking in the Westphalian unit and the well was sidetracked to penetrate the Namurian C which was thinner than prognosed due to faulting, and so another sidetrack (SF07Y) was drilled into a thicker Namurian C sand. After completion and perforation in 2003 the well flowed 2.4 mmscf/d of gas on test. However, once the well was linked up to production equipment it became clear the reservoir had suffered some form of permeability impairment  and the well gas rate was restricted.”

I don’t know if the reference to “in 2003” means that it went on for a long time, over 2002 year-end. It’s a shot in the dark, this sidetrack, what? 90% confident! Haw haw. Pass the port. While the going’s good, what? Haw haw, did you see that reference to Poundland and Lord Snootie? I mean to say, yes. Good show. Where was I?

[negan] 12/2/2023 14:55

Vote up if you do?

[negan] 12/2/2023 14:54

Would like to get others thoughts on this.

Please vote down if you do not think another major discounted placing/fundraise is not imminent due to the issues with the side-track and delays?

[jtidsbadly] 12/2/2023 14:45

1347: what can be next? If there’s no financing RNS this week, I think it may well mean that they're in serious trouble. The gas flow needs watching. Aren’t we supposed to have a fresh cartoon today? Two days? If they’re working at weekends, that means by today, what?

[jtidsbadly] 12/2/2023 13:31

1347: they’d have to be paying overtime if the second compressor is being attached yesterday/today. I can’t see much point in that, unless they’ve decided they have to shorten the life and reduce the total gas recovery of the field by operating the new compressor to increase the short term flow, just in order to meet the forward contract requirements. The second compressor was bought to cope with the expected(?) output of the sidetrack, not to squeeze all they could from the existing two wells.

[negan] 12/2/2023 13:16

Maybe Tidswell has drilled the wrong well again!!?

[1347] 12/2/2023 12:23

Big drop off in gas volume yesterday.

[astra1vision] 11/2/2023 23:14

Illiterate LETSBUY1 (bought 1 share) and his little brother ONETOMANY (one too many losses) were probably offered 1 more free share by the MD of ANGUS to post their daily rubbish here. It backfired badly. Good entertainment though. WOW, BOOM.