Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[letsbuy1] 11/2/2023 22:11

Wow boom 5p END MARCH

[1347] 11/2/2023 20:59

PS JT And FESL...

[1347] 11/2/2023 20:08

JT No it's not odd in my view but rather it's in keeping with how events have unfolded here and I don't think it's intended to be diplomatic, it's done because it suits someones interests, along the lines I've mentioned. As for Wolfy, it seems he's gone to ground, although he may be lurking beyond the treeline.

[jtidsbadly] 11/2/2023 19:51

1347: it seems an undiplomatic time to make such a change, at the very least. It’s open to a range of interpretations. It’s Anguish’s company now, not Paul Forrest’s. If there’s an embarrassment of some kind, it will be theirs. Odd, isn’t it?

Re your earlier post, yes - where is Wolfy?

[1347] 11/2/2023 19:23

JT More twists and turns on Snake Pass. I guess it's because then they don't have to report the figures relating to the sale of interest of Poundland in the accounts this year. Which means they won't be published until the year afterwards, will they. I note that this was only done today, the day after the RNS indicating further problems with the drill. As I've said before, this whole Poundland thing has looked suspicious to me right from the start, when it was a Brockham distraction. Lots of questions, few answers. Musical shares in a dark, smokey room.

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[jtidsbadly] 11/2/2023 17:57

1347, JA51: here’s something odd: there’s an update today(!) on the SEL Companies House site to say their 2022 Accounts are going to be in respect of the period up to 22 May 2022, not 31 May 2022. The takeover terms were announced on 24 May 2022. What’s going on there, do you think?

[jtidsbadly] 11/2/2023 16:06

JA51: it happened between the 2018 accounts (the final Wingas Accounts) and the extended-period May 2020 accounts (the first SEL accounts). Written down from £13mm to £750,000.

[jtidsbadly] 11/2/2023 15:32

1347: they’ve only paid off the lesser part of the money owed on the July/August hedges. That’s what £3.3mm. of the £6-6.5 net funds from the placing was for. Yes, if you add what’s left of the placing money to their monthly cash flows, there can’t be much left and this month’s net cash flow looks as if it may be negative. We don’t know the terms of the remaining deferred forward contracts or of the re-negotiated debt.

I agree, I think you and I have said from the start that Paul Forrest got a very sweet deal from Anguish. Very sweet indeed.

[bionicdog] 11/2/2023 15:24

Do you read the RNSs? Don't bother answering , it was a rhetorical question (look it up).

[weebun] 11/2/2023 15:21

What a lot of interesting knowledgeable people on this site it’s so good we have such a vast difference of opinion you hate Angus i on the other hand think they are doing a fantastic job

[bionicdog] 11/2/2023 15:03

Dear oh dear Weebun.

[jtidsbadly] 11/2/2023 14:57

Try to keep up at the back of the class. Weebun.

[weebun] 11/2/2023 14:10

What a fantastic achievement from GL and his team almost 13mmscfd by next week.I suppose the side track will eventually be for back up.

[ja51oiler] 11/2/2023 12:49

If this all comes tumbling down, there are going to be some awkward questions asked of the NSTA (Formally The OGA) around the granting of a one-man band taking over from the Russian Federation, and what exactly has happened to the Saltfleetby accounts for the year in question!!

[1347] 11/2/2023 12:36

JT Regarding the coal/water layer, yes it's been clear to anyone that's read the Field Reports that it's a difficult formation to drill and that there have been water issues in the past. However I thought that they had got through that part and cased it off but I may have misinterpreted the last FDP and/or their previous RNS announcements, when they said they were going back to 100 metres above the current TD of 2,400 m, that makes the latest attempt at 2,300 m. However looking at the Wingas FDP it seemed to me that the Amaliae Marine Band extends from 2,230 m down to 2,250 m and the Silkstone coal is above that so both are at least 50 m above 2,300 m. So either Captain Oates is wrong or the depths as in the RNS and/or FDP don't stack up.

Yes whatever you estimate the additional drilling costs to be it will be a fair bit so that last placing money will be running out quite quickly.

JA FESL also managed to offload that derivatives liability and get a loan written off and got cash and got shares and Forrest gets a directors salary now and they don't have to cover these extra drilling costs now. Great deal for them, what a generous chap that Lucan is, what, what?

[goforgold1] 11/2/2023 12:06

This will be one of the Scams of 2023. You can just see it coming. I have said from the last time they drilled. They must the hole lol ..From last RNS they have do exactly the same. They can not have much money left us all the hedging GAS IS 2.5 now lol from10 ..They should be investigated for INVESTOR FRAUD ID A DUSTER LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE ONE. .Their track record is a BIG BIG RED FLAG BEDN SAYING SINCE 2p now 1p and sinking

[jtidsbadly] 11/2/2023 11:58

JA51: didn’t SEL reduce their abandonment liability to £750,000 in an earlier set of Accounts filed at Companies House? I’m not sure on what basis - they’re not required to give much information. The total liability to Anguish must be mech higher, anyway, with the new plant included. Re Mercuria, doesn’t their Charge entitle them to take over the assets, rather than the Company? It may then be that the abandonment cost would rest with a penniless Anguish - i.e. Lincolnshire County Council, rather than with Mercuria. Mercuria would have no requirement for a sidetrack, the cash flows from the existing plant, which they’ve only part-financed - owing to the generosity and gullibility of Anguish shareholders - would give Mercuria a handsome return on their investment.

I think Anguish would have been fortuitously bailed out by the rise in the gas price, but for the forward contracts and their tardy delivery of the financing and the construction programme. There’s still a slim chance that the third attempt will succeed but it looks a bit unlikely, doesn’t it? Next week is going to be interesting. The respected contributors on the other site - normally regarded as the senior one - may know something of the technicalities of a drilling programme, but the range of uncertainties in a sidetrack drill in this well are such that expertise doesn’t appear to count for all that much. What they don’t know anything about is the cost involved and the state of Anguish’s finances. It’s possible to make much more informed estimates on these than on the chances of a successful sidetrack. I think they need much more money imminently. It’s not clear to me how their brokers will go about it, but mug punters are mug punters and these brokers are pretty good at what they do. So who knows?

[ja51oiler] 11/2/2023 11:29

JT
I would be very surprised if Mercuria wanted to take the company over now! The reason being Mr Forrest managing to get shot of that £10 million pipeline De-Com costs. A very smart move on his part

If the sidtrack fails for a 12th time in a row, Saltfleetby ultimately is just another De-comm liability along with Brockam, Lidsey and in all probability Balcombe.

The company has been built on presenting clapped out oil and gas fields as "missed opportunities" by bigger and better companies. They aren't! They are just decommissioning liabilities others got shot off!!

[astra1vision] 11/2/2023 10:44

LETSBUY1 so angry. It’s priceless. Now my advice is he needs to learn English and get a job. Then again I might employ him to clean my toilets if he can afford the fare from JAYWICK or perhaps he can steal a dinghy and paddle over. Poor little lad.

[jtidsbadly] 11/2/2023 10:34

1347: I see that Push2 has come to the conclusion that the coal/water layer is a bit of a problem. We could have told him that two or three months ago. Or is it four months? Still, his conclusions are a bit more realistic now. I imagine that the drilling experts who presided over earlier sidetrack attempts from SF07 and whose efforts and expertise have been impugned consistently by the “management221; here, are thumbing their noses at the Interim MD now.

I think, with respect, that WG818’s cost estimates for the sidetrack are way too low. The CPR, nearly a year and a half ago (and there’s been 10%+ inflation since then) forecast a cost of £2.84mm. with a contingency of £1.41mm. The Board said at the start of drilling that it would take 28 days, plus 10 days preparation and 10 days clean-up and testing. If they exceeded this timetable, they would need to raise more money - which they did. So they’d spent, conservatively estimated, £4.25mm in the first 48 days and then presumably a further ten days’ worth of spending on at least a pro-rata basis. The hard part of these sidetracks appears to be the milling though the casing, setting the whipstock and subsequent drilling at an angle, so the subsequent failed drills must have been more expensive per day than the initial couple of weeks. So £4.25mm. appears to be way too low, what? More like double that sum to date, surely? All their cash flows from gas sales are going towards it but are not enough. If they were enough, they wouldn’t have needed that huge placing. So the immediate issue appears to be raising the cash to carry on with sidetrack no.3. After yesterday’s late announcement, it’s hard to see how a successful p&d can be launched. Aleph are still loaded with shares, taken at a much higher price. And investors’ views on a “nailed on, 90% certain” sidetrack success have taken a very big blow. Mercuria have agreed to defer the missed July/August forward contract payments. They also seem to have agreed to defer a large part of the 2022 loan repayments. It’s a very uncomfortable position for shareholders of Anguish to be in. If this sidetrack doesn’t succeed on the third attempt - assuming they can afford to complete it - what’s the prospect for them?

[1347] 11/2/2023 10:17

Oh dear Captain Oates has made a surprise return to Kansas and is opining that the twitter vids are misleading. Also stating they had to go back above the marine and coal section, much higher than they said as I recall, which raises further issues about previous statemnets, not the least of which is how does he know all this?

[1347] 11/2/2023 09:02

JT In response to your post last night. As I've said before, we don't know what Mercuria's position is (nor that of Aleph, the ultimate ownership of which is not really known, but is located in Delaware as far as I can tell) but I still expect they will let it run as long as Mercuria are making a few £million per month on the hedges (with little effort) and Aleph are making something on flipping placing shares (with late disclosure), plus they are both getting loan interest with royalties to come.

The real issue comes if Angush Energy can't meet their commitments, either on the hedges (they need around 5.5 mmscf/d reliably to keep their head above water I reckon) or meet the loan payments. With the increased drill costs they will be burning a fair bit more than they budgeted for, so they are skating on thin ice. If the drill ultimately fails (the first attempt clearly did and the second one is looking like it will (in my opinion)) then that ice may well break. It also looks like Brockham has stopped producing (at least in October/November 2022 according to the OGA) and Lidsey is clearly not back in the frame. Balcombe can be disregarded until the appeal process has completed, but I now no longer expect it will be commercially viable without fracking (I dug a bit deeper on the history there).

So for me it remains a very high risk 'investment' with limited upside, not least due to past and potential share dilution, including lots of Warrants back out there. I sold most of my remaining holding in the ramp over 2 p, which was obviously the right decision, it's better to be outside this tent looking in, rather than stuck inside trying to get out if the storm hits.