Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[1knocker] 05/7/2022 19:37

Coco, I agree with llb. It is difficult to predict a top on the way up as it is a bottom on the way down. I don't think anyone should kick himself for failing to sell a high unless that high was clearly the result of hype and the share clearly overbought. It would need to have topped 200 to be approaching that territory, IMO, so I was notes seller of a sound company in a sector which ought to be well placed over the next few years at least.

My post was addressed to whether now was the right time and price at which to top up. Much the same considerations apply in reverse. If you believe in the company (as I do, provided that the new CEO proves to be up to snuff, and some concern that a time of high revenue should be used reward shareholders rather than to buy assets when they are likely to be expensive), it probably is good value at present. But we all want as low a buying price as possible. I favour waiting for the down trend to turn, as there is no knowing how great the fall will be, and when a market falls there is always a prospect of an overshoot and shares becoming significantly oversold. The great thing is not to be tempted into purchasing too soon out of fear of a market rebound and missing the bus. That could happen. but it does not matter. There are plenty more pebbles on the beach if a purchasing opportunity in any given share is missed there will be at least as good an opportunity to buy something else.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/7/2022 18:52

#Cocopops, try not to beat yourself up about what could have been, I am sure many holders are thinking why did I not sell the news at c190p and sit back, Q1 results were mighty, Q2 will be close to the same and Q3/Q4 we will get the benefits of the new royalty tiers at Kestrel, however macro market conditions can override positive results near term..

Markets are brutal currently but the portfolio we have gives us the best chance to weather the storm out and still collect our 7 pence a year, my view is a decade of these dividends and the share will still be worth a lot more than it is today as the portfolio gets built out from retained earnings..

A bad day today all round, but not as bad as BoJo's..!

[cocopah] 05/7/2022 18:16

#1knocker … I learnt a valuable lesson here. Unfortunately when the price was around £1.80 (and I could’ve made a killing and brought back in lower than my average) I held on believing the price would gradually climb after the last 2 quarterly results. Big mistake! I won’t make the same mistake next time if the market recovers because it’s fairly obvious that income will be lower after the next two quarterly results. Of course the market may well have priced this in, in which case I’ll just sit tight and take the divis. Certainly not thinking of topping-up on the falling knife.👍995;😎

[1knocker] 05/7/2022 17:29

I said that I would be interested below 140, but this sell off is more brutal than I expected. Are we in for the sort of shake out in commodities that the tech sector has experienced? I really have no idea, but most of my purchases this year have proved to be too early, and in a market like this if you miss a bus it is not long to wait for the next one, so I am holding off topping up for the present. My last top up here was at 126, and its certainly not impossible that we shall revisit the 120s. And if not, in this market thee will almost certainly be plenty else to chose from. It generally pays to wait until a down trend turns, or at least shows signs of turning before buying. Its rare indeed, and really just luck, accurately to predict a bottom on the way down.

[haywards26] 05/7/2022 12:51

This imo is a great investment at current share price, future minerals focused, coal royalty increased etc. Once funds permit I will be making a significant addition to my holding.

[cocopah] 05/7/2022 11:56

Decent write up … as the share price continues to travel downwards!😂 SMALL CAP SHARE IDEAS: Mining royalty company Anglo Pacific Group [...]

[bhoddhisattva] 04/7/2022 07:53

RNS this morning

Anglo Pacific Group PLC (LSE: APF, TSX: APY) is pleased to note the commencement of production from the small scale PNP1000 plant at the Piauí Nickel Project in Brazil has been announced by Brazilian Nickel PLC ( First Nickel from PNP1000 - Brazilian Nickel PLC ).

Annual production guidance for 2022 is for 300 tonnes of nickel and 3 tonnes of cobalt ramping up to 1,400 tonnes of nickel and 35 tonnes of cobalt in 202

[the deacon] 04/7/2022 07:31

Maybe MBL is reading this thread ;)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/7/2022 08:51

#Cocopops, net debt at 30 April 2022 expected to be USD45M, so at H1 I expect to see net debt of around -USD25M (debt of -USD40M), so we could just be in net cash by the end of Q3 with the rest to smash out in Q4..

With 20 pence per share of debt gone, the company is that much more valuable and 1 day that will get priced in.. :o), harsh markets right now, and the tides lift and lower all boats the same with very few shares bucking the trend..

[cocopah] 01/7/2022 18:12

#LLB Thanks for that. I had traced back to £1.364 (March I think) but who knows.🤷̴5;♂️ What do you think the reported debt position will be?🤔

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/7/2022 17:39

#Cocopops, on my chart, the support line from Jan 2021 has 4 previous contact points and a level of 142p right on it at todays close.., tough market conditions out there right now so anything can happen, but we do know what is coming in 2/3 weeks on the results, and we know this share does get traded by the Algos too, so an interesting few weeks coming up..

[cocopah] 01/7/2022 16:47

Well that’s been a painful few weeks! Do you think this might go down as low as £1.35 before bottoming-out? I’d welcome some views from those handy with the charts. 🤔🤔

[the deacon] 01/7/2022 10:39

I'd like to see APF talking more about it. At the moment it's an absolutely critical asset to APF going forward. From an investor point of view, many want exposure to nickel/cobalt but don't want the operator exposure.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/7/2022 10:06

#The Deacon, an update on their website too, another milestone for our portfolio income with the BFS coming up next ahead of scaling the project.. :o)

[the deacon] 01/7/2022 09:54

Production guidance:2022: Nickel 300t, cobalt 3t2023: Nickel 1400t, cobalt 35t

[the deacon] 01/7/2022 09:52

Footage of the Piaui pilot plant in operation on Brazilian Nickels Twitter feed.

[sporazene2] 01/7/2022 07:41

Interesting turn of events at Candente Copper where we have a royalty over an early stage (very large) copper project. It appears as though the largest shareholder, Fortesque is looking to take control there.

Candente Copper Corp. (TSX:DNT, BVL:DNT, US:CCOUF) ("Candente Copper” or “the Company") announced in its press release dated June 23, 2022 that at the Company’s recent annual meeting of shareholders held on June 22, 2022 (the “AGM”), while all of management’s nominee directors were re-elected, Joanne Freeze, Sean Waller, George Elliott and Andres Milla (the “Withheld Vote Directors”) received a greater number of withheld votes (the “Withheld Votes”) than votes in favour of their election.

For each of the Withheld Vote Directors, between 96% and 98% of the Withheld Votes were cast by Nascent Exploration Pty Ltd., an affiliate of Fortescue Metals Group (“Fortescue221;).

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/7/2022 06:56

Our new royalty bands for Kestrel kick in from today..Nickel/Cobalt prices looking the most robust currently as some of our basket soften, Copper is off from its highs, but our volumes are going up to offset some of this, met coal still well into our new 40% territory..Q2/H1 done and now we wait for our numbers..

[cocopah] 30/6/2022 08:25

Even more chatter on media outlets today about our share price falling below the 200 day moving average … as if we needed any more pressure on the share price! The good news on revenue and debt reduction seems to be secondary news atm …🙈9335;‍♂️🙄

[1knocker] 29/6/2022 16:11

I am with you coco. First pay off the debt then pay the shareholders when prices are high. buy royalties when they are strapped for cash. The reverse approach adopted by APF was material to my decision not to top up further above 140.

[starastar] 29/6/2022 13:48

Hi all - I'm a LT holder, just not a regular poster! Saw this, though, this morning, which I thought the board might be interested in ref Thermal/Coking coal 'contango' (or something like that): doomberg.substack.com/p/shoemakers-children

[cocopah] 28/6/2022 15:03

For the life of me I can’t see the broker £3.00 share valuation being achieved, in fact I think anything over £2.00 will be good. The $64,000 question in 2023/2024 then becomes … what price the share will drop to/stabilise at over the next two years until Incoa/Piaui start to kick-in. Now we have moved from a dividend play to a growth company the heat is on to find more deals (at exactly the wrong moment) … or else IMHO the share price will fall. Of course there is now no dividend growth to keep investors interested. Scratching my head to see what next … the change in strategy threw me (that’s not to say I’m criticising it, just not sure what will happen as we try to grow).

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 28/6/2022 14:24

#Troc1958, a larger slice of my PF too hence my liking to keep on top of events here, if a portfolio is too widely diversified it is more likely to just track an index, in that case you could be as well off in a tracker fund ETF, but to try and make some headway you need to be concentrated in an area you think is more likely to do better than that, the EV revolution and battery metals space should perform well over time here and the diversification APF has inside it should also offer some shielding too ..

APF is only just beginning its next growth chapter as the doors open up after the debt is wiped out, we will see where MBL takes us next, anything over and above Incoa/Piaui would be welcome, but it is not a race to spend while commodity prices are so high, unless someone is having a fire sale..!

[troc1958] 28/6/2022 10:57

I like the "Latin Mines" guy's approach to Royalty valuation. Doesn't get over complicated. Err's on the conservative. He values Anglo at $596m sum of the parts, equivalent to a 179p share price vs current MCap of $505m at 152p. Agree that some of his valuations are a bit hit and miss particularly Piaui at $10m which seems very low. A lot obviously is dependent on future expected prices of coal and metals and possibly why Anglo price is at a substantial discount to his "conservative" valuation. However given the Queensland coal royalty benefit and potential future Piaui purchase I believe that the downside risk of this company is limited and a lot of negative global economic news is already reflected in the price. I always fear "hidden" skeletons manifesting themselves and knocking the share price. I can't see Anglo having any which have not already been included in the valuation (e.g. Dugbe unlikely to come into production and thus at moment hardly valued at all - 3% of Anglo value). Just my thoughts, but Anglo is one of my bigger holdings.Troc