Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[flagon] 08/8/2022 08:06

BHP bids for OZ Minerals

Link :

the high-quality nature of OZ Minerals’ growth projects which include the West Musgrave
Project (FID scheduled for H2 2022), the Carrapateena Block Cave and the Prominent Hill
Extension which together are expected to generate significant production growth over the
next 5 years;

[cocopah] 05/8/2022 23:33

I wonder where the bottom will be here … Cobalt down from 65,000 to 49,000 in a calendar month!

hxxps://uk.investing.com/commodities/cobalt-historical-data

[cocopah] 04/8/2022 09:53

Holding out that the next deal is both imminent and cash flow accretive to consolidate the share price at or around the current level (if not give it a bump) otherwise I can see a drift towards the £1.20s again. MBL has already signposted that the income will fall from the current elevated levels. Fingers crossed.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/8/2022 12:46

#The Deacon, MBL and JT will have been discussing addition royalty growth options for many years, my bet is the S32 deal was probably 2nd on the list and a work in progress when we did the VB deal which at the time came out on top before the Cobalt price spike..

Let us see what comes next, Incoa/Piaui and/or another, the Piaui BFS has not dropped yet, but must be soon, as was slated for H1..

The bankable feasibility study (“BFS”), being carried out by SNC-Lavalin (“SNCL”), is nearing completion with value engineering now underway which will be completed in the first quarter of 2022. The study remains on track to be completed as planned. Early off-take discussions continue to progress with various major groups with the aim of securing significant contributions towards funding BRN’s full-scale project

[the deacon] 03/8/2022 09:22

Yes agreed. I'm sceptical about the West Musgrave timeline offered by Marc, but we shall see. As Marc alluded to, the next transaction really needs to be cashflowing.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/8/2022 08:54

#The Deacon, the FID for West Musgrave is clearly going to be a catalyst there, we will have to wait for it to unfold over H2, but I would expect MBL to have received a high level of confidence that it would proceed as planned, the timing sits well for 2024 income as Kestrel winds off though..

[the deacon] 03/8/2022 08:19

Yes I'm quite bullish on Trident, though right now much depends on a successful legal decision for Thacker Pass. I've held since inception and they've managed to execute on some smart 'out of the box' deals. In addition to APF I've a modest holding in Altius Minerals too. I did sell a good chunk of Altius Minerals when I thought it had got a little ahead of itself. Recently bought a few more back. The potash royalties over some of Nutrien and Mosaics key operations have mine lives in excess of 1000 years. Again, with regards to management, Brian Dalton always seems to be one step ahead of everyone else. I held Julian Treger in the highest regard too, and I think APF are a poorer company in his absence. I'm still sceptical about MBL's ability to grow the company, and I'm not entirely convinced of the recent S32 deal. It's not a reason for me to sell at the moment, but I'm watching what comes next with interest. On the whole though, the royalty and streaming space is, in my mind, the best place to be right now.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/8/2022 17:16

Growth through MnA does have a lot of merits and shortcuts to a portfolio, but you cannot cherry pick the best ones, nor do you get to dictate your own terms that each royalty is done by, secondly picking up a basket of smaller R/S deals can be pretty heavy on admin to keep on top of them all so it is not always the number 1 option..

I like the VB deal, the S32 deal, and now established we can work through their portfolio going forward if we chose to add some more..

Incoa, Piaui still to come, and the next one should be immediately accretive..

#1Knocker, funny you should mention SONG, I looked at it, but seems to me run more like a fund, and they have half the dividend payout back in fees so I do not hold..

[1knocker] 02/8/2022 16:29

Thanks, that's reassuring for a number of reasons. I too hold Altus, so the increased post merger cashflow at Altus makes holding Sandstorm as well, also development orientated, less of a concern rom a portfolio balance point of view, especially as the merger with Nomad provides some useful cashflow.

I entirely agree about quality of management being key, and the Sandstorm team have a good pedigree. I just hope they don't chase ad overpay in a quest for growth.

If you are looking for another royalty company, Trident is worth running the rule over I think. Again, a very high power management team and, to my mind a price with a good deal of upside from present levels, or takeover potential. I have a modest holding there, which I am looking to increase.

I also hold Wheaton and Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Gold Royalty, so quite a good balance of established and up and coming. Trident and Anglo Pacific (my largest holding)provide some diversification from PMs. Batteruy Metals and coal look to me to be good bets. If APF would move to 300 I would be a very happy bunny, but that seems pretty optimistic to me. 200 would do us nicely, preferably after a dip to 140ish to acquire a few more!! In inflationary times I feel comfortable with royalty and streaming companies, and not only in mining either. I have a small holding in Hignosis.

[the deacon] 02/8/2022 09:38

I've been a long time shareholder of Sandstorm. In the royalty business I've found over the years that for me, management teams are the key consideration. I really like what Nolan Watson is continuing to build at Sandstorm. I'm in a slightly similar predicament to you, in the sense that I'm a Nomad shareholder too, and will likely lighten my holding somewhat so as to not be too exposed to the combined entity. It's a bit of a shame as I liked the way Vince and team were going about business. But the near term growth at Nomad was difficult for Sandstorm to ignore. I'm particularly keen on Ivanhoe's Platreef.Two more of my royalty holdings (Elemental and Altus) are merging too. This comes shortly after Gold Royalty failed in a hostile bid for Elemental. I can really see that combination being successful over the long term too. The combination of Elemental's cashflow and Altus' sizable development portfolio is compelling. Again, two management teams who have their heads screwed on in this space. At the moment the royalty and streaming M&A seems largely confined to the precious metals players - though virtually all have some copper/base metals assets in their portfolio. In addition to the above I hold Osisko, Wheaton and EMX in the predominantly PM royalty space.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/8/2022 09:23

#1Knocker, interesting development there, in addition to the Sandbox/Equinox deal, Basecore portfolio, and now Nomad..

Softer pricing does seem to be leading to more MnA activity.. :o)

[1knocker] 02/8/2022 09:09

One of my favourite royalty companies, Nomad, has announced a merger with Sandstorm. Sandstorm is going for growth quite aggressively, and has a significant proportion of its investments in early stage mines. I shall have to think carefully whether I want to hang on for the merger.

Gold Royalty, after falling inexorably for moths, for no particular reason that I can see, has risen significantly over the past week, though I am still underwater there (my one 'red' royalty holding)

I wonder if we are in for a burst of activity in the sector?

[quepassa] 01/8/2022 08:05

once a truck driver, always a truck driver.

[andydaf] 31/7/2022 06:50

FWIW i think with commodity companies you have to take a long view.As plenty will know i was bullish on coking coal and still am.I expect it to fall back but rise again in a years time.I am also bullish on oil/gas/thermal coal over the next ten years alongside copper,nickel and the other battery metals.APF have got a strong portfolio now and although i am not a trader and really do not know whether the share price will go up or down its my policy to take the dividends and hold.If i get a chance to buy some more at what i believe to be a cheap price i will have a top up.What i do know is battery metals will be in short supply and sooner or later that means prices go up.Kestrel should pay the debt here fingers crossed and then we will have royalties paying us well into the future.As alwys GLA

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 30/7/2022 10:50

My view is a R/S company like APF is a buy and hold for a lifetime and the dividends, commodity prices are notoriously fickle, Iron Ore / Coal probably the most, but we have so many future facing metals in the bag now we are very well set up indeed..

We have to drive through the high/low cycles and a pullback gives us lower entry points for buying new royalties, so a welcome event as the Kestrel income piles up for us to pay debt down and build the portfolio out..

Year averages or multi year averages are what matters most, peaks are great for income, troughs great for adding new royalties.. :o)

New royalty tiers at Kestrel over AUD150/tonne (USD103) still on our side and will be through to 2026 before we exit..
Narrabri income still to come in
4 Mile back income due from court settlement
Amapa export income due
Incoa about to start paying
Piaui maiden income from Q3

[otemple3] 30/7/2022 09:39

It's crazy and makes no sense so had assumed coking was going to pick up rather than take a further drop!!

[masurenguy] 30/7/2022 08:43

Anglo Pacific Group buoyed by 'windfall' cashflows

[dartboard1] 30/7/2022 06:10

You're right. I'm on thermal not coking... interesting the disparity in price between the two at the moment

[otemple3] 29/7/2022 23:22

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/SGX-ACF1%21/Same one I've always used and has always tied up with the numbers quoted by APF

[dartboard1] 29/7/2022 19:26

Not sure where you're getting your price from...

[otemple3] 29/7/2022 16:56

Ouch, coal dropped 17% overnight from what looked like a level with some support & now below $200

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 28/7/2022 10:23

Income will drop back from Q3/Q4, we know that will happen, but some offset by the new royalty tiers from Kestrel, after 4 quarters setting records on the bounce, at some point income will not go another increment up..

IMO also the safest place to be right now with cost push inflation adding to every miners AISC is a GRR/NSR well covered high dividend paying royalty company, capital growth is secondary for 2022/2023 and shielding from potential losses is where to focus, each holders outlook may differ depending on their individual time horizon, I am more a lifer so steady state and keep building income is more a priority..

#Sporazene2, all the best, do look in here and contribute, and let us know how you get on elsewhere too..

[1knocker] 28/7/2022 09:58

With miners' AISC beginning to show the impact of diesel technology cost inflation the royalty companies are the place to be IMO.Its a volatile market, with recession in the headlines. I shall welcome any price weakness to top up.

[sporazene2] 28/7/2022 09:54

FWIW - I sold 2/3 of my holding this morning. Had a decent run and over the short/medium term I think our core commodities face some headwinds. The level of dilution to get this point is a problem for me and I have a bit of an issue that they havent got a lithium royalty on the books, especially given how weak the price was until about 12 months or so ago. It looks to have the most acute supply side issues over the next 10-15 years of the EV battery metals.

Funds going into increasing my stakes in AMG and Piedmont where I think the short/medium term capital gain prospects are much better than here. So very much agree with Cocopah.

I also would like to see some more creative transactions going forward and feel the new CEO and CFO seem a bit conservative.

Will definitely still be keeping a track on things as I have reasonable size holding (for me anyway) in the ISA and the solid income will be most welcome

GLA.

[cocopah] 28/7/2022 08:54

#LLB I share your optimism about the future … but you know how the market reacts to news about income falling and the associated risks around development assets (no matter how good the track record is). We know the dividend is fixed, so I’m not seeing the wild share price advances forecast by the analysts coming to pass. Indeed I think we could stay where we are at present for a while, especially as the South32 deal will increase the ISC. No complaints from me, LTH with over 5% annual return at my average entry price. See this as a hold for 5 years plus … not something one can say about any stock these days! 😎👍🏻