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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Anglo Pacific Group Plc | LSE:APF | London | Ordinary Share | GB0006449366 | ORD 2P |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.00 | 0.00% | 157.00 | 157.60 | 158.60 | - | 0.00 | 00:00:00 |
Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 0 | N/A | 0 |
Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
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28/6/2022 09:00 | Yes that's where MBL needs to be looking in my opinion. Maverix, Nomad and others all fleshed out their pipelines with acquisitions of a portfolio of royalties from the likes of Orion, Yamana etc. We recently saw Trident pick up a portfolio of offtakes from Orion, Sandstorm take a portfolio from Glencore and Altus picked up a portfolio from Newmont. For the major miners, they get little if any value for royalties they've negotiated on project sales, so they're better off selling them to a royalty co for equity and adding value that way. Obviously some projects are more attractive than others, but with my h of the earlier stage stuff it's difficult to say how they'll develop. There's value assigned to projects sitting in a royalty portfolio though. | the deacon | |
28/6/2022 08:52 | Events, dear boy, events. DCF is essential but can be subjective rather than objective. Anyway, time will tell - I wish I had more of it:-) | johnrxx99 | |
28/6/2022 08:47 | #The Deacon, on Piaui, (BFS due this week), at full scale of 25,000 TPA Nickel, 625 TPA Cobalt, at todays prices results in USD620M revenue, @4.25% = USD26.5M a year income to us and c35% IRR on the next USD75M, very respectable if prices hold up where they are.. Forward project pipeline of Dugbe, Incoa, Canariaco, Imapa are in place, but perhaps once the debt is hammered out we might pick up an existing accretive portfolio through MnA rather than 1 at a time..? I have no doubt MBL and the team are looking at many options, but the priority is the debt as rates are going up, 2023 will open up the store for us just as rates impact on over leveraged companies that might need to have a fire sale.. | laurence llewelyn binliner | |
28/6/2022 08:20 | Yeah, though on the whole I think it's a reasonably fair assessment. The author shares many of the gripes that I do. The main one being the lack of a pipeline. Piaui, Dugbe etc are there, but there's little optionality to pin future hopes on. Many of the big PM focused streamers get a better valuation because of the likelihood of one or more of their optionality pipeline coming through and getting into production. Looking at the likes of Sandstorm, Osisko, Maverix etc they have hundreds of early/development stage projects that probably won't make it, but at the moment most are being progressed by their respective operators at no cost to the royalty holder. The chances are that a few of those will develop into cornerstone assets for the royalty company over future decades. There isn't really anything other than the few we know about in the APF pipeline that we could say provides that upside surprise. I do think the author understates the value of Piaui though. Given the stage it's at, the governmental interest it's getting, and the fact it can feed directly into the EV/battery market I think it's value is higher. As I've said many times before, I'd love to see Marc flesh out a significant pipeline here. At the moment all of the focus is on the Kestrel run off, and the void thereafter. | the deacon | |
28/6/2022 06:19 | Thanks The D. An analysis that will no doubt be pawed over but it adds to the value of this thread. | johnrxx99 | |
27/6/2022 19:03 | Thanks Deacon... think the writer could have done a better job (or at least more interesting job) at estimating Voiseys Bay value | dartboard1 | |
27/6/2022 16:52 | #The Deacon … thanks for the share, an interesting read, what are your thoughts? Unless I am mistaken, the debt numbers are incorrect. | cocopah | |
27/6/2022 15:57 | Picked this up on twitter:https://lati | the deacon | |
27/6/2022 07:54 | I posted this on the BISI board but relevant here for Kestrel…. Plenty of weekend press (Telegraph, Times) regarding the demand for Coal. To summarise; (1) EU Russian coal import ban begins in August, UK expect to follow as currently UK ban begins from 31 Dec (2) Imports of Russian Coal in H1 significantly higher as countries stockpile ahead of the ban (3)South Africa trying to meet anticipated world demand but struggling due to falling coal production and infrastructure issues (4) coal power stations being turned back on (5) Due to reducing appetite for Coal in 5-10 years time as the world electrifies and decarbonises there are no new coal mines being brought into production. 1-5 above = the perfect storm! | rimau1 | |
26/6/2022 09:15 | #Cocopops, with so many variables it is hard to accurately forecast years out, but with the current pricing environment from Q2-2021 income has been around USD10-12M a quarter + Kestrel.. Q2 slightly lighter than Q1 Q3 stronger than Q1 Q4 even better 2023 Kestrel income could be close to 2022, volumes are expected to step down by approximately 50% but that depends on any deferred tonnages and progress inside panel 411, the new royalty tier rates kick in from 01st July and the long-wall change out usually October is into the next panel 412, panel 413 is very light but 501 is next and we have half of it for 2024, then 502 for 2025, 503 for 2026.. The Piaui DFS/BFS could land this week which will set out the timetable there, they have gone straight in with a bankable funding strategy and that addition to the royalty could come online from 2025/26 Investing a further USD70M into the project to increase the royalty rate up to 4.25%, based on the progress achieved to date this could be invested as early as H2-2023 (and paid for by Kestrel) Turning net debt into net cash then zero debt and cash positive by year end - exciting times.. :o) | laurence llewelyn binliner | |
26/6/2022 07:40 | #LLB Interesting, do you think that of a baseline for our income (given the recent Queensland ruling and the positive impact it will have on the tapering at Kestrel before the nickel stream comes online) means we can expect a rough baseline of c$80 million income per year for the foreseeable. I appreciate that this will also depend on commodity prices.👍 | cocopah | |
25/6/2022 12:01 | #1knocker, turbulent times ahead and headwinds for our SP/commodity prices, however met coal is holding up very well averaging around USD450 per tonne for Q2 so we know what is coming down the pipe for our Q3 income and stronger than Q1.. For ease of calculations our portfolio is averaging around USD10-12M a quarter + Kestrel with prices as they are.. From a TA slant, the trend line / support line from the buyback at 100p is intact and the share price has bounced off it for the 4th time, coincidentally on the 1st Fib retracement line on my chart @ 146p, so loading up around here might be a good idea.. :o) | laurence llewelyn binliner | |
25/6/2022 09:56 | I topped up 6 months ago at 126. The market was stronger then, so this has done well still to be nearly 20% on that price. I should need to see it back below 140 before I am tempted to buy more. In a weak market good news does not move the dial much, so it is no surprise that the Queensland news has not lit a fire under the share price There must be a good chance of 140. Patience pays in a bear market. | 1knocker | |
24/6/2022 03:46 | Fe an issue I suspect | johnrxx99 | |
23/6/2022 15:04 | Base and bulk metals continuing to sell off certainly not helping either. | the deacon | |
23/6/2022 14:48 | #otemple3 perhaps it’s got more to do with the fall below the 200 day moving average. I’ve seen the same with SEQI recently although the fundamentals of both stocks are completely different. If it keeps falling I will seriously need to think about adding!😂 | cocopah | |
23/6/2022 14:26 | This market is bonkers! Game changing announcement and two days later back where we started!! | otemple3 | |
23/6/2022 14:16 | Did they reverse the Queensland decision at 2pm today? 🙈🙈 | cocopah | |
23/6/2022 13:27 | #The Deacon, cash is king when it comes to firepower on acquisitions, debt arrangements often syndicated have to be approved by each underwriter, using the lenders criteria on debt/earnings ratio multiples and then they charge LIBOR +5% for the privilege, where ever possible we should make our own decisions, not being held to account by a lender.. :o) Current payback will see us debt free by year end, as new royalty bands are effective from 1st July for our Q3 but the income will be received inside our Q4.. I was initially hoping for an accelerated debt reduction inside Q3, but given the income lag it will be more likely to pick up later in the year setting us up very well for 2023. FY2021 income - USD85M FY2022 income - estimated USD200M | laurence llewelyn binliner | |
23/6/2022 12:57 | #TheDeacon … hopefully, given the Kestrel news, we won’t see such a significant drop-off in income now. For the life of me I can’t see how the new Berenberg target of £3 can be anywhere near realistic from where we are now at £1.50 … given that there will be at the very least a small drop in income in the short to medium term and there is no news on deals that they could have used to base their assessment upon and we won’t be tempting dividend investors. I am happy to hold and believe in the space that we are in but I am not sure that we will see full value in the share price in the foreseeable future.🤔 | cocopah | |
23/6/2022 10:44 | I think one of the main reasons the dividend was rebased to 7p was because that level of payout was deemed achievable through the 'gap' between when Kestrel falls away and Piaui starts generating income for the company. I'd rather APF focus as much cash on accretive deals that'll contribute in the near term, rather than increasing the dividend, with the potential of having to trim in a year or so later. A special dividend maybe, but again from a longer term point of view I'd rather Marc have the firepower to take advantage of opportunities. There's a heck of a lot of royalty and streamers vying for copper/gold deals at the moment. Wheaton for example have $2bn in deployable funds. Their CEO stated recently that the deal pipeline is beginning to grow again as debt and equity financing is becoming more expensive and increasingly unattractive. | the deacon | |
23/6/2022 10:28 | 8p div per year would be 5.3% yield at current spAgree that would help support the price. | gateside | |
23/6/2022 10:16 | Don’t want to re-ignite a huge dividend debate but moving to 2p per quarter (say justified on the back of the Queensland decision) wouldn’t cost much, would support the share price and not really interfere with paying down the debt or building a war-chest? 🤷a | cocopah | |
23/6/2022 07:05 | Analysts at Berenberg raised their target price on mining giant Anglo Pacific Berenberg stated that while the rates for lower coal prices were unchanged, Queensland has added three new tiers to the royalty regime and has lifted the rate for higher coal prices from the top rate of 15% to 20% for coal prices between AUD $175 and AUD $225 per tonne, 30% for coal prices above $225 per tonne and up to AUD $300 per tonne, and 40% for coal prices above AUD $300 per tonne. The German bank noted that the structure of Anglo Pacific's ownership of the Kestrel metallurgical coal mine in Australia, of which it owns 50% of certain substratum lands, meant that it was entitled to coal royalty receipts from the mine. Berenberg said this was "a major tailwind" for Anglo Pacific, given "particularly strong prices" for both metallurgical and thermal coal, currently trading at $386 per tonne and $348 per tonne, respectively. The analysts, who also reiterated their 'buy' rating on the stock, highlighted that Kestrel produces predominantly metallurgical coal but also has an element of thermal coal in its mix. "The attractiveness of the royalty business model is highlighted here, with meaningful earnings accretion in a period when cost pressure is a major negative risk for traditional miners, something we think will be highlighted further in the upcoming results season. We reiterate our 'buy' rating on Anglo Pacific, which remains, in our view, a low-risk way to play high commodity prices without the risk of cost inflation, FX impacts, and capex overruns. The stock is trading on 4.1x EBITDA and 0.84x NAV." Barclays Broker Tips. | masurenguy |
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