Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 23/2/2020 18:10

LET ME EXPLAIN FOR YOU IN SIMPLEST TERMS THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE WHITEHAVEN SHARE PRICE AND APF.

BOTH COMPANIES MAY BE PERFORMING VERY SATISFACTORILY. SO WHY ARE THE SHARE PRICES OF BOTH COMPANIES SO DEPRESSED?

WHAT DRIVES THE SHARE PRICE IS DEMAND FOR THE SHARES AND INVESTOR SENTIMENT.

INCREASINGLY INVESTORS WANT AND NEED ESG COMPLIANT SHARES.

EVER GROWING NUMBERS OF INSTITUTIONS WANT AND NEED URGENTLY TO BE ESG COMPLIANT IN THEIR INVESTMENTS AND THIS MEANS THAT MANY ARE BOTH AVOIDING AND DISPOSING OF EXISTING HOLDINGS IN INVESTMENTS WHICH ARE DEEMED BY THEM TO BE NON-ESG COMPLIANT.

HENCE FOR EXAMPLE RECENT INITIATIVES AND ANNOUNCEMENTS BY THE WORLD'S BIGGEST MONEY MANAGER, BLACK-ROCK IN RESPECT OF THEIR SELLING $500 MILLION OF COAL INVESTMENTS.

ALTHOUGH THE INTENTION AND MOOD MUSIC MAY BE TO GO GREEN IN THE FUTURE, THEY ARE NOT THERE YET. AND INSTITUTIONS KNOW THEY CURRENTLY HAVE NOT-INSIGNIFICANT COAL INVESTMENTS.

FUTURE INTENTIONS TO GO GREEN ARE NOT THE SAME AS BEING GREEN NOW.

AND INSTITUTIONS WANT AND NEED ESG COMPLIANCE NOW, NOT FUTURE INTENTIONS.



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[pockstones] 23/2/2020 13:36

Dear Quepassa
‘See coal and runaway’ now that you know there is a difference between coking and thermal and you do not dispute the logic of investing on the basis of future returns. You seem to be making a positive investment case for Anglo Pacific its growing ESG qualities or have I miss understood you ?

[quepassa] 23/2/2020 06:47

Sector sentiment surrounding coal and non-ESG Compliant investments is and will remain dire, irrespective of whether companies involved in these sectors are performing financially well.

The reason professional money managers want and need ESG compliance NOW is that many of their investors DEMAND it and unless these fund managers are ESG compliant, many of their investors will withdraw funds. That's bad news for them and their fees. So they dump and shun certain sectors like coal.

Yes of course there is a major difference between coking and thermal coal. But it's not true what you say. The market is only just beginning to draw a distinction between steam-making coal and steel-making coal.

Still the majority of investors just see the word "coal" and run away. They just lump it together and think it's all the same dirty polluting stuff.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[pockstones] 22/2/2020 22:29

Dear dear Quepassa
All those capital letters and long words! investments are valued on the basis of future returns and the numbers for Anglo Pacific are pretty good here and likely to get better. There is no other basis of investment over the next three years the bulk of the coking coal value will be extracted and other royalties purchased hence the rise over the last few years from fifty odd pence to the current 156p
You seem very agitated about this. Investment is a learning process not a series of fashionable stances. You see a linkage between a coal mine operator and a diversified royalty owner the latter has more than trebled in price the former has recently fallen in value possibly because the price of thermal coal has come back a bit currently, there is no connection. it might be that you are on the wrong side of the investment and losing money here still never too late to change you know.

[quepassa] 22/2/2020 20:41

LET ME EXPLAIN FOR YOU IN SIMPLEST TERMS THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE WHITEHAVEN SHARE PRICE AND APF.

BOTH COMPANIES MAY BE PERFORMING VERY SATISFACTORILY. SO WHY ARE THE SHARE PRICES OF BOTH COMPANIES SO DEPRESSED?

WHAT DRIVES THE SHARE PRICE IS DEMAND FOR THE SHARES AND INVESTOR SENTIMENT.

INCREASINGLY INVESTORS WANT AND NEED ESG COMPLIANT SHARES.

EVER GROWING NUMBERS OF INSTITUTIONS WANT AND NEED URGENTLY TO BE ESG COMPLIANT IN THEIR INVESTMENTS AND THIS MEANS THAT MANY ARE BOTH AVOIDING AND DISPOSING OF EXISTING HOLDINGS IN INVESTMENTS WHICH ARE DEEMED BY THEM TO BE NON-ESG COMPLIANT.

HENCE FOR EXAMPLE RECENT INITIATIVES AND ANNOUNCEMENTS BY THE WORLD'S BIGGEST MONEY MANAGER, BLACK-ROCK IN RESPECT OF THEIR SELLING $500 MILLION OF COAL INVESTMENTS.

ALTHOUGH THE INTENTION AND MOOD MUSIC MAY BE TO GO GREEN IN THE FUTURE, THEY ARE NOT THERE YET. AND INSTITUTIONS KNOW THEY CURRENTLY HAVE NOT-INSIGNIFICANT COAL INVESTMENTS.

FUTURE INTENTIONS TO GO GREEN ARE NOT THE SAME AS BEING GREEN NOW.

AND INSTITUTIONS WANT AND NEED ESG COMPLIANCE NOW, NOT FUTURE INTENTIONS.



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[pockstones] 22/2/2020 19:16

dear Quepassa,
Berkeley Energia stands at a discount to the cash on the balance sheet trading has largely gone to Madrid and when the Spanish politics settle down and the right bribes are paid the mine will get built - the sovereign wealth fund of Oman is behind this after all in the meantime the price is ten pence as APF has a royalty over the asset the decision you have make is will the mine ever be built or not, and I think 2000 jobs in the back of beyond and strong local support mean it will be in the meantime it is a case of waiting but clean energy and oven ready with APF already involved is not a bad way to be.
Incidentally on the Anglo Pacific share price a while back it was around fifty odd pence it may have come down from 220 but the dividend is progressive and I would not get too upset about it value will out and all that. If we do get more royalties the market cap will be getting big enough to draw in the transatlantic royalty investors you might want to consider that

[quepassa] 21/2/2020 10:10

FT today.

Page 24. Half-page article headed " Climate activists turn their fire on Wall Street".

This well-researched article goes to the heart of the matter.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 20/2/2020 20:44

BUT SHARE PRICES ARE THE YARD-STICK, THE COMPARATOR, THEY SHOW THE WAY AND INDICATE CLEARLY SECTOR SENTIMENT. YOU CANNOT IGNORE THEM.

RE YOUR COMMENT "SHARE PRICES.... IRRELEVANT TO APF".

I DON'T THINK SO.....APF HAVE AN EQUITY STAKE IN BERKELEY ENERGIA.


MAYBE YOU RECALL THE WORDS ABOUT THEIR STAKE IN BERKELEY ENERGIA IN THEIR 31st. OCTOBER 2018 RNS TRADING UPDATE:-

"The value of the Group's equity stake in Berkeley Energia decreased to GBP3m In October 2018 (from GBP7m at 30 June 2018) following speculation that it is experiencing difficulty in obtaining the final two permits required to commence construction - this deficit has been largely offset by the valuation uplift on the Group's LIORC investment, which has increased considerably in value since the initial investment during Q3 2018. Berkeley Energia has confirmed that it continues active discussions with all stakeholders, in order to resolve the current impasse."



The Berkeley share price in October 2018 was around 35p. To-day it has collapsed to just 10p.

So APF's stake has on the face of it reduced in value to less than £1m from a peak £7m.

That's not good.


SORRY TO DISAGREE but in the case of BKY, the share price IS MOST CERTAINLY NOT IRRELEVANT to APF. Nor to you as an APF shareholder.

And as an aside it would be interesting to know whether they have provisioned the value of their LIORC investment in the Salamanca mine given the effective moth-balling of the site due to labyrinthine Iberian politics on nuclear.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[the deacon] 20/2/2020 20:15

You need to stop worrying about share prices. They're irrelevant to APF as far as Whitehaven, BKY and the majority of operators are concerned. Agree with you regarding Salamanca, but you know as well as I do that support for that project changes like the wind - depending on who is in power. JT is right, where uranium sits in the future energy mix remains to be seen.

[chillpill] 20/2/2020 19:48

Thermal coal is only 12% of income. The price of coking coal which is 39% of revenue has been going up.

For me the price fall is completely overdone but a lot of smaller company fund managers are having redemptions right now.

[the deacon] 20/2/2020 19:45

You're ignoring the obvious difference between coking coal and thermal coal. One difference that BlackRock recognise. They're no longer investing in thermal coal. They are, however, still continuing to invest in quality coking coal. Even the most ardent of ESG proponents appreciate that coking coal (for the foreseeable) has a significant future - certainly over the next decade, and accept a small % of their exposure can be in coking coal. Kestrel has three good years left before it tails off. As everyone transitions to a more ESG compliant world (I agree with you regarding its importance), APF will be in a great position.

[quepassa] 20/2/2020 19:40

On uranium, funny but when I listened to the interview yesterday my recollection was that APF mentioned specifically that some investors did NOT consider uranium as ESG compliant due to the somewhat negative environmental reputation U3o8 has and that they were therefore not perhaps so keen to increase uranium investments. Quite contrary to what you again erroneously say.

Let's not perhaps talk about their uranium investment in Berkeley Energia. Nor perhaps about the politics and demonstrations against the Salamanca mine by The Greens and in particular Stop Uranio in Spain.

By the way, have you seen the share price of Berkeley Energia?

It is 10p. Yes 10p.

It's down from almost 70p in 2017 to 10p now. That's DOWN by 85%. Even more than Whitehaven.


Funny old world innit.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[quepassa] 20/2/2020 19:36

LET ME EXPLAIN FOR YOU IN SIMPLEST TERMS THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE WHITEHAVEN SHARE PRICE AND APF.

BOTH COMPANIES MAY BE PERFORMING VERY SATISFACTORILY. SO WHY ARE THE SHARE PRICES OF BOTH COMPANIES SO DEPRESSED?

WHAT DRIVES THE SHARE PRICE IS DEMAND FOR THE SHARES AND INVESTOR SENTIMENT.

INCREASINGLY INVESTORS WANT AND NEED ESG COMPLIANT SHARES.

EVER GROWING NUMBERS OF INSTITUTIONS WANT AND NEED URGENTLY TO BE ESG COMPLIANT IN THEIR INVESTMENTS AND THIS MEANS THAT MANY ARE BOTH AVOIDING AND DISPOSING OF EXISTING HOLDINGS IN INVESTMENTS WHICH ARE DEEMED BY THEM TO BE NON-ESG COMPLIANT.

HENCE FOR EXAMPLE RECENT INITIATIVES AND ANNOUNCEMENTS BY THE WORLD'S BIGGEST MONEY MANAGER, BLACK-ROCK IN RESPECT OF THEIR SELLING $500 MILLION OF COAL INVESTMENTS.

ALTHOUGH THE INTENTION AND MOOD MUSIC MAY BE TO GO GREEN IN THE FUTURE, THEY ARE NOT THERE YET. AND INSTITUTIONS KNOW THEY CURRENTLY HAVE NOT-INSIGNIFICANT COAL INVESTMENTS.

FUTURE INTENTIONS TO GO GREEN ARE NOT THE SAME AS BEING GREEN NOW.

AND INSTITUTIONS WANT AND NEED ESG COMPLIANCE NOW, NOT FUTURE INTENTIONS.



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[melody9999] 20/2/2020 19:24

Pock - best to ignore QP - he has short position - if you trawl through this thread he just permanently de-ramps the stock. That's fair enough - each to their own - but soooo repetitive.

[the deacon] 20/2/2020 19:13

QP seems to be very keen on uranium. Ironically APF provides some great, derisked exposure to a buoyant uranium market in the future. More so than any other royalty/streaming company. Ultimately QP, the income from Kestrel and Narrabri will go a long way to financing the pivot that'll turn APF into a green/clean energy/EV royalty company, in the same way that Altius are swapping their coal exposure for renewable energy royalties. Now, in a rather depressed base/energy metal market, is the time to be buying these. Not when they're hitting $bn market caps, as institutions and investors see them as the Franco Nevada's and the Wheaton's of the base metal sector.

[pockstones] 20/2/2020 17:47

Dear QuePassa Treger in the interview points out that coking coal prices are up so far this year and within budget. Anglo Pacific are paid a royalty based on that price there is no connection to Whitehaven and its share price whatsoever.
I recommend you listen to it you might understand the business model and the growing proportion of so called green minerals such as copper and uranium which is where management are headed
DYOR

[quepassa] 20/2/2020 16:48

the share price of sector bellwether Whitehaven Coal (owner/operator of Narrabri coal mine) slumps another 5% as interims reported today.

Share price now at A$2.23 compared to A$4.95 a year ago on 1/1/19.

And is now down more than 60% since the June 2018 recent peak of A$5.78

softening coal prices detract.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[montyville2] 20/2/2020 13:02

Very good interview, I saw the link on here and have since looked at some other interviews. I have always liked oil and resource stocks so it is great to see these showcased on your platform.

[cruxinvestor] 19/2/2020 17:34

Let us know your thoughts on the interview! Thanks for sharing it here.

[the deacon] 19/2/2020 11:33

2 new deals by the end of Q1 according to the interview. Looking like it'll be EV/green energy themed as APF transitions away from coal

[the deacon] 19/2/2020 10:19

New Crux Investor interviewhttps://youtu.be/l2mG1olOsYM

[quepassa] 12/2/2020 09:35

The Government in talks to relocate the influential COP26 Climate Conference being hosted later this year by the UK from Glasgow to London. ( An excellent initiative and idea as Sturgeon does not deserve the honour in my view of hosting this important event.)

COP26 will further heap pressure on environmental issues and the polluting industries.

Boris Johnson wants the UK to be a world leader in the Green Revolution just as UK was the leader of the Industrial Revolution.