Anglo-eastern Plantations Share Discussion Threads

[daza70] 20/5/2022 11:21

trading stmt out

[ntv] 19/5/2022 12:37

From Monday allegedly but we will have to wait and see if he changes his mind

[tigerbythetail] 19/5/2022 12:24

Good news indeed!

[kor_wraith] 19/5/2022 11:39

Indonesian export ban lifted, excellent news for AEP

[tigerbythetail] 18/5/2022 10:42

Pressure building on Indonesian government to change course:
www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/16/indonesian-farmers-decry-palm-oil-export-ban-as-prices-plummet
I think the export ban will be rescinded in the next week or so now.

[skanjete2] 15/5/2022 19:30

Apparently N. Roditi sold about 800k shares in the first quarter.

And in '20-'21 KBC Securities sold quite some shares (about a million).

Maybe that's what has been holding back the rise in stock price?

[undervaluedassets] 14/5/2022 06:21

It seems AEP is getting punished for having too much money.

I think that this will turn around.

Why? because many companies will soon be suffering for the real crime of not having enough money.

AEP have both assets and cash; the market will recognise this in the end.

Pe of 4 (sharescope) is just wrong; the historical average pe is 10. Over time we will see the shares move through £10 and then on to £20.

[tigerbythetail] 09/5/2022 13:51

I'd give it another week or two before the Indonesia export ban is lifted:

hxxps://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/9/indonesia-faces-international-pressure-over-palm-oil-export-ban

[34adsaddsa] 08/5/2022 06:02

"It plans to resume exports when the local bulk price of cooking oil falls to 14,000 rupiah (US$0.97), having soared in recent weeks to 26,000 rupiah.

The price had dropped to 17,200 rupiah by Friday."

[martinfrench] 04/5/2022 11:32

i'm interested, but as others say, if they have such a small (ridiculously small divi) and they are not increasing acreage....then not sure what they are doing

[stemis] 04/5/2022 08:26

I agree that the one sure way to get value for a burgeoning cash balance is to distribute it to shareholders. However, if you are a management with a long term horizon, and have experienced cyclicality in the market before, I guess having a huge war chest to snap up assets (i.e. land) the next time there is a depression is hugely attractive.

[ntv] 04/5/2022 08:19

Tipped in IC again by ST
Thread certainly got busy than 6 months and volumes have massively increased here over that time period

[34adsaddsa] 03/5/2022 12:12

The share price doesn't reflect the cash balance. The more cash they have, the more it will be discounted by the market. Having unneeded cash sitting on the balance sheet is a misallocation of capital.

[forensic] 03/5/2022 12:11

Thanks for that insight skanjete - interesting

[skanjete2] 03/5/2022 11:43

There could also be another, I admit, speculative reason for the low dividend.

If they want to pay a dividend to common shareholders, they have to upstream the money from the Indonesian operating subsidiaries. So, about 15% also has to be paid out to minority shareholders.

Now, recently, Indonesian law was adapted so that foreign companies can now own 100% of an Indonesian CPO plantation. Formerly, that wasn't possible (hence the minority shareholders). This allowed f.e. that Sipef, a Belgian plantation company, recently bought out the minority shareholders of Agro Muko.

Maybe AEP is aiming to do the same with his minority shareholdings. To motivate the minorities to sell, they could consciously minimise the dividend. In that way, the only way for minorities to have a return on their investment, is to sell to the majority shareholder, AEP.

For AEP, this would be a great investment.

[stemis] 03/5/2022 11:38

This is an ongoing cost and should be easily funded from cashflow. Their target is to increase yield per hectare from 19.8 (2021) to 22. If they'd achieved that in 2021 it would have increased ebitda by 34%. They are also gradually acquiring new land for plantation.

[kenzo1966] 03/5/2022 11:10

They need arround 160 million dollar for planting en re-planting the coming years.They are just very prudent.

[myopia] 03/5/2022 08:57

Regarding the dividend, for me at any rate, it doesn't really matter if they pay out some of the cash or not. As long as the amount of cash they state they've got is actually there, and the share price keeps on rising to reflect this, if I want to take a 'yield' from the stock then I will just cash in some of the shares. It makes no difference to me as a small shareholder whether it's a capital gain or a divi payment.

[rimau1] 02/5/2022 10:01

Well the results smashed my expectations so AEP is a very strong hold for me. I had modelled and posted here on 28 March Net cash of $202m at y/e 2021 based on revenues of $447m and PBT of $126m. Onwards and upwards.

[varies] 01/5/2022 16:12

We are entirely in the hands of our Chairman.
5c is a miserable dividend. It would need to quintuple again next year to provide a 2% yield and this looks unlikely.

[melody9999] 01/5/2022 14:42

The final results seemed to justify the cash based on the voilatile CPO price. But the cash will have increased signifcantly since y/e with high CPO prices.

If the cash requirement is for 'a rainy day' then they could distribute the excess surely?

[jqb1] 01/5/2022 06:09

Fair point, but why do they need so much cash? Working capital requirements?

[34adsaddsa] 01/5/2022 01:31

I'm not sure what your definition of meaningful growth is, but the business has grown considerably in the last decade:

2021 FFB production: 1.19 million mt
2011 FFB production: 707,000 mt

That's a 68.3% increase.

2021 FFB bought-in: 1.14 million mt
2011 FFB bought-in: 546,800 mt

That's a 108.5% increase.

2021 CPO production: 473,200 mt
2011 CPO production: 248,000 mt

That's a 90.8% increase.

And, of course, we've accumulated what is now probably just shy of $260M in net cash. That was $84M a decade ago.

[stemis] 30/4/2022 20:43

MPE is on a P/E of 8.2 (SP - 944p, EPS - 115.6p) and has a small net debt.
AEP is on a P/E of 4.6 (SP - 875p, EPS - 190p) and cash amounting to >40% of it's market cap.

[jqb1] 30/4/2022 17:07

Looking at the dividend and earnings history, they have never paid out. I would expect a commodity business to pay a good yield in good years, meaningful growth isn't on the cards, it's all driven by the price of the palm! Look at all the other commodity firms. Look at MP Evans yield. It's worth a comparison. Any opposing views are welcome.