Anglo-eastern Plantations Share Discussion Threads

[rimau1] 31/3/2022 09:57

Stemis, 34ads, glance down 2 posts and you will see my forecasts. Glance down a few more posts and you will see others. The purpose of posting the IC article was just to illustrate that we have some interest which may give us some upwards price movement. The IC admitted they were extrapolating H1.

[stemis] 31/3/2022 09:48

If we extrapolate this to the full year (conservative giving the price rise in CPO) we get £45.8mn

The figures look wildly prudent. Company made $36m in H1 when average was $1122/tonne. If we use their $1730/tonne and allow for the $200/tonne export tariff, then pro-rating turnover results in earnings of $173m (=£132m). Using a more prudent $1600/tonne (currently $1660 although been much higher) gives $142m (=£109m).

£45.8m is less than twice what they achieved in H1 at a much lower price !

As an indicator, net cash at 30 September was $192.2m compared to $159.1m at 30 June. That's an increase of $32.1m in just 3 months. Since then CPO price has been much higher. Cash at end of March could be as high as $260m. Current market cap is $397m. So ex cash probably around 1 x current earnings...

[34adsaddsa] 31/3/2022 09:20

A glance at M P Evans' results will show just how timid his numbers are. The only risks I can see here are: That they use the cash to make an acquisition and then CPO prices collapse or there's some kind of attempt by the controlling shareholder to take it private for zero premium.

[rimau1] 31/3/2022 09:01

Nice write up in the IC:
“ But unlike its sector compatriots, Anglo Eastern Plantations is now clear of debt and had a net cash position of $192.2mn ($146.2mn) as at 30 September 2021. But that was six months ago, and since that period the CPO price today is $1,730 compared with $1,310 – a 32 per cent increase. I believe high CPO prices are here to stay, although it is worth noting that Indonesia has increased its export tariff scale, which means a lower net price realised at these levels for the international Rotterdam price. There are also no guarantees against further increases. RE. Holdings has set out a tariff model with a scale in its recent RNS dated 29 March 2022 – it says the company will be paying an extra $200 per tonne from the total export tariffs that were payable under the previous rules. Eastern’s last results, the company generated a comprehensive net income of just under $30 million. If we extrapolate this to the full year (conservative giving the price rise in CPO) we get £45.8mn – roughly six times earnings against the current market cap of £299mn. That number decreases when you strip out the cash – a number which could, if the market cap doesn’t change, easily cover the market cap within two years should CPO prices remain elevated. I believe Anglo-Eastern Plantations is a trade that has both the technical uptrend plus the fundamental improvements with a low valuation.

[rimau1] 28/3/2022 15:38

Net cash - I am gunning for $202m at y/e 2021 based on revenues of $447m and PBT of $126m. That is a historic cash adjusted PE of under 3!

[gaiusgracchus] 27/3/2022 14:54

We should get a trading statement in a few weeks, if last year is anything to go on. And the cash build they will report will be enormous.

[rimau1] 27/3/2022 13:06

Interesting article in the Sunday Telegraph “palm oil is back on the supermarket shelves” brief summary: with Ukraine and Russia responsible for 2/3 of global sunflower oil supply, supermarkets are seeking alternatives such as Rapeseed and Palm Oil. Iceland Supermarkets after removing palm oil from recipes are having to consider the use palm oil again as the only viable alternative to Sunflower Oil due to taste issues or processing properties said Richard Walker, Managing Director.

[catsick] 22/3/2022 10:53

Famine is coming unfortunately, this is a cheap hedge to rising food prices, worth bearing in mind that the Indonesian gov are taking a nice skim off exports of palm so it doesn't all drop to the bottom line when the prices go up, but this business is making a fortune

[rimau1] 22/3/2022 08:09

MP Evans have smashed it out of the park. Bodes well for results here in April. I have been building a position here in anticipation of a rerate which must now surely come.

[spooky] 21/3/2022 17:42

Another nice trade. Surely only a matter of time.

[799boy] 10/3/2022 18:00

foxfox79

Patience is definitely the name of the game here. Seller will clear out eventually and then we all get to experience the overdue re-rate :)

[foxfox79] 10/3/2022 17:00

Seems to be a big seller in the market who prevents shares from rising, unbelievable the disconnect between price and CPO prices

[x54v] 09/3/2022 22:52

Volume immense. Big move coming.

[rolo7] 09/3/2022 12:33

Did this get tipped somewhere?

[799boy] 09/3/2022 11:49

That's me in at £22k. Fingers crossed peeps :)

[rolo7] 09/3/2022 08:36

i just purchased 1k @747p hope this takes off, late april update if we go by past years. takeover possible? directors getting a bit older now retirement?

[spooky] 09/3/2022 08:28

Has to currently be one of the cheapest shares on the planet, should be at least twice this price IMO.

[foxfox79] 02/3/2022 09:22

Extremely undervalued at the moment, i estimate at least 130 M USD net annual at these cpo prices. Ready to breakout to the upside in anticipation of earnings.

[gaiusgracchus] 02/3/2022 08:38

At end of Sep-21 net cash was $192m. Around half of market cap. And they are printing so much cash at current palm oil prices. Wonder if the share price ever reacts? Sadly the mgmt clearly cares not a bit for minority shareholders!

[ntv] 22/2/2022 08:29

CPO close to 60k

[34adsaddsa] 16/2/2022 12:04

All they need to do is a pay a huge special dividend. That's IT.

[ntv] 16/2/2022 08:20

catsick
Can you post some links/charts etc tia

[catsick] 16/2/2022 01:12

The Malaysian and Indonesian palm stocks are rallying like crazy at the moment but nothing here despite the insane cash generation and all time high palm prices

[foxfox79] 04/2/2022 11:20

Looks to break out of ascending triangle, cheapest stock i know of