Wan' we both have big holdings in AAZ.
You most of all.
As you know I plan to visit Azerbaijan in late April.
Currently I spend time to plan my travel and learn what I can.
I was researching if I could visit Nagorno Karabakh area while I was in Azerbaijan.
I came across Reddit then and joined it.
I suggest you too do the same.
I like to do as much research as possible myself before my travels .p
I am hoping to visit the area around the Demirli Mine site.
I was talking to a friend this morning in Turkey . Asking him if he had time to accompany me.
He will have a chat with me this evening .
This thread is there to share information about our investment. It is no big deal for me to share any information that I find. |
Pogue, thanks for the analysis/thoughts - I know you have more of an idea on this one than I. Really, the safest/best shorts are where you get an RNS of trouble that comes outta the blue, with no previous, then you have the element of surprise in your favour. This one I guess is just finger in the air territory… |
many thanx for sharing your research cmb,,, that certainly helps to calm that little voice in my head which keeps reminding me about geopolitical risk,, Cheers Wan :-) |
Good afternoon all, Cheers Wan :-) |
Hi guys' this morning I spent a fair bit of time analysing Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh on Reddit.
Some very good discussion there.
I was trying to find the political risk to the current government.
The thing I learnt that I find important was that the protests that took place in the 2 villages Soyudlu and Imisli were not against the Central Government but against the local government.
A lot of current politcal information is discussed among the local people,it showes that the President is quite liked for winning the war and freeing Nagorno Karabàkh from Armenia.
I was trying to find out if there is any politcal risk to my investment in AAZ.
I am quite relaxed to read the current mindset of the local population.
Have a good day all holders.
ATB. |
 LOL Bumpa. Something looks very wrong at WG I am trying to work it out but it does not fall this far for no reason. On the upside there should be a bounce to make money on surely? It did so that last time before leveling out.
The takeover angle is a possibility I would not discount but again the books are being revised just now so what is the result of that, that was the reason for the big drop before which it never recovered from so an opportunity exists there as well if you beleive management. Management think its a trivial issue according to the RNS. I have been saying for a while it was their dodgy VAT trick they pulled for a few years mainly on Saudi contracts whereby they claimed no VAT was due, so they did not pay VAT to the contractors on the projects, but have now been taken to court by a contract engineer and proven wrong so have to pay it all back, an accountant told me its a zero sum game but I am not so sure. If it is then the revised books will be fine. If its not VAT then it could be something with a bigger issue.
So many unknowns it is basically a bet not an investment as far as I can see. Sorry that post looks positive on re reading :0) |
Thanks Matt, interesting times ahead. |
Matt thank you for the chart.
I am fairly sure that we will receive some information from AAZ this month. |
Looks like it will quickly move to 140p once it breaches 120p. |
Let's not forget the Gold sat in the Gedabek tailings ... it was previously valued at $30m. Since then Gold has just about doubled in price so now $60m.
If Gold trebles from here that would value the Gold in Tailings at $180m & that is without taking into account the gold still sat in the earliest of the Heaps at circa 2g/t.
The Mkt Cap of this company is more than covered simply by the 'waste' from prior operations. Everything else is valued at Zero. |
I believe there is merit in this analysis, particularly Luke Gromen's thesis.
If the USA is to revalue Gold, the higher they get the price the greater the value of their Gold Holdings to act as an offset to their national debt.
There is a logic to this outcome & with Trump & his team now at the wheel, it cannot be ruled out - no matter how crazy it may seem to the casual observer.
Consider that thesis with how i interpret the Gold chart and a price of $8,700/oz by Jan 2033 (one theoretical Elliot Wave target) does not seem so improbable, particularly if the Republicans win again after Trump. It's only a 300% gain: |
Pogue - keep going, talk me out of it! |
Weekly chart update, using the Weekly Candles.
I've kept in place the same 'ceiling' line at 118.5p.
Have highlighted several notable Candlesticks which appear to be the ones that define this year-old upward 'channel' & how it is inexorably pushing up towards that ceiling.
The Green circle shows the remaining 4-6 weeks before the lower parallel of the upward channel meets the ceiling which would suggest the opportunities to buy for ≤ 118.5p are dwindling. Indeed the Offer price (as indicated by the grey Bid/Offer spread shadow around each candlestick) is now at 120p. |
Management at Wood are very focused on making money for themselves I cant see them trying to get the company sold as they will get fired. Unless it really is a basket case and they just want the payoff in which case are Sidara that stupid? |
Sidara surely won't bid while WG are redoing their accounts for the last few years due to some sort of error that they are not telling anyone about. That review will be done in April I think. |
Thank you Cinoib for pointing out an obvious typo, and for your repetitive comments about your disgruntlement over the spread. Surely your time and efforts would be better spent on other things. |
Mattjos, is a very long time since it was $1900 think you mean $2,900 |
thanx to all for your continued support of this thread,,, I wish you all a fine weekend, Cheers Wan :-) |
Rb - next time, shout louder 🤣 |
RB
down this neck of the woods my builder mate is struggling to keep the lads working. He is back soon from Ireland will have him round for a glass to see if its improved but last I saw him was Dec and I immediately got him to send round a couple of his workers round to do some work. |
Pogue he may be right both cases, I know there’s not the labour out there; can’t get it easily myself.
Bumpa it looked dire, the debt looked terrible and the noise to put it right weak; just wish I had chance to act on it but been in and around London today, so no time to watch screens. |
Paul reckons the balance sheets look good. He is big on his numbers Paul. The way to play it however maybe to watch the housebuilders and buy the secondary companies builders merchants etc when the builders firmly turn. |
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