Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/6/2022 15:24

#3Sporrons, I am taking the precaution of making sure I have a pint in hand at 7pm, for the FED announcement to take the edge off .. :o)..

Seems +0.5% is a given now, +0.75% more likely, +1% very hawkish but if they want to stamp on inflation you never know, MPC to follow like for like tomorrow to prop up the GBP:USD FX or we will be par to the dollar by year end..?
The FED 2/3 month dot plot is going to be telling as it is a quarterly review of where expectations are heading..

[e43] 15/6/2022 15:08

KS&11%,
Share buybacks/tender offer's should come into play more for cash rich lowly rated O&G shares going forward .
Rather annoyingly TGA had their share buyback voted down at their AGM a couple of weeks ago. They currently are debt free with half their mkt cap in cash selling on a forward P.E. of around 2,so should have been a mathematical no-brainer to sharply reduce the number of shares in issue.

[2sporrans] 15/6/2022 15:05

Fed today....

It will take a 1% rise for hawkish surprise; 0.75% almost fully priced in.
0.5% dovish now
But what about the guidence?
Like rate path trajectory and neutral+terminal rate hints.
Expectations for rate cuts some time in 2023?
We won't be given any.

A brief bear market rally to ensue following a 0.75% hike and same indicated for July, then Sept. onwards "data dependent"?

What about QT?
How much liquidity is going to be sucked out of the markets?

[bwana4] 15/6/2022 14:59

Oh' Katsy one more important thing is that MM holds a golden share. No one can twist his arm to sell the Co. So still a lot more to write about THG but I don't want to clog this BB with THG information.
I hope this explains the situation in a nutshell.
ATB.

[pogue] 15/6/2022 14:54

11_percent
oil can only go so high demand destruction has to kick in. People are already leaving jobs because they cannot afford petrol and that is in the UK the seeds of this oil price fall have been sown. When they will sprout? There is the question because as always its a moving puzzle. China has not got back to full steam so demand will rise there plus most of the badly run countries that make up OPEC are not able to make their quotas just now for a variety of reasons Nigeria, Venezuela, Libya etc.
So we are not at the top of the price yet probably but the way down will be fast always is as speculators run out fast when they sniff a top and its they who set the price on the margins.
I am ready at the trigger to sell what I have.

[wanobi] 15/6/2022 14:50

yep, thanx Rb, cheers Wan :-)

[2sporrans] 15/6/2022 14:43

dp

Sector sentiment is surely dire and has been waning since July 2020, following the peaking of the first gold spike.

AAZ, past 6 months has been facing into the additional headwind of a declining equities market generally.
Arguably, absent of any especially good/bad company news, AAZ could "outperform" within the general equities class, though outperform could well be merely falling in price less than most other stocks.

My reasoning here rests upon AAZ's value [cheap] and quality [net cashflow generation] credentials.
Companies scoring highly in both those categories have been bearing up well during the general sell off.
On the face of it though, with a PE of 16 based on 2021 earnings, AAZ is no longer cheap; indeed arguably it is rather dear, given it's an AIM mining co.
However, i think, mostly going by the net cashflow, that this PE figure looks 20%, maybe 30% overstated. But i'm biased. [There was that huge tax payment made during H1 2021].

POG [and POC] have held up pretty well thus far, 2022; so revenues ought to be coming in OK still.
The main problem will be with continued rising costs since the end of the year, eating ever further into margin; a continuation of the 2021 story and one common to the sector.
If Vejnaly and Gosha fire up well, they have the potential to stop the rot; perhaps for Q4 net cashflow, this year; more crucial will be the 2023 picture and how Zafer development, then production performs, not least in meeting a Q3 ko target. As you say.

Cyclicality has generally been a -ve for equities but energy sector the most obvious exception.
Growth has been where the damage to equities has been most acute; ever increasing discount rates paring back long duration NPV calcs. + speculative unwind.
At least there's next to nought priced into AAZ share price for a growth scenario, so news [ratification etc] on this score can only be stimulative.
Not as much as anytime during 2021 but hopefully we could see 10's of p on the share price rather than just 10p or so.

The divi is reason to hang on in there, if you expect the ratification etc scenario to come good.
Get paid while you wait.
Assuming the divi is cut [again] in October, say down to 3.5c to match the July, which i expect fwliw, then if the $<>£ is 1:1.20 we are looking at 7c pa, so at a 85p price that's 6.86%pa.
Of course, if one is averaged in higher the overall yield is lower and if say one's avergage buy works out at half 85p, well the running yield is 13.7%.......
Whatever.....

The problem with the divi underpinning AAZ sp,is that it only does so weakly.
Investor perceptions of AIM miners are not ones of dependable income generation; 3 years of unbroken, good payout isn't a long history either.
Just as an example of what qualifies as a "Dividend Aristocrat", take Procter and Gamble. 65 years of rising dividends; they have risen each and every year!
The flip side to this is, arguably, that AAZ's income credentials are as underpriced as it's growth potential [NPV] - ratification pending.

And there's the buybacks; potentially 1/6 of the free float gets bought.

Well, at least i've posted on topic.

[riggerbeautz] 15/6/2022 14:29

Wan the only consideration in going to cash, is currency risk; you need a basket to be safe, as all currencies race to the bottom against the dollar. That and use physical P.M’s as a hedge for when the dollar fails.

[bwana4] 15/6/2022 13:49

Katsy,the shorts had a field day with THG shares. Also the fear of inflation and recession will also play their part in the sales of THG product sales.
Also the high tech side has also taken a big hit this year. So in a nutshell either it will be broken up into 3 segment or taken private by MM.
Or it will continue trading as it is if a good enough bid does not materialize.
I am hoping it will be broken up and sold as individual entities. That will pay back handsomely to some shareholders.
It has become an expensive buy for the ones that bought at £5/8. All because of the fall in high tech and the fear of recession and inflation.
AIMO ofcourse NAI .
ATB.

[11_percent] 15/6/2022 13:24

KS,

That graph says it all.

I think that AIM O&G are being held back......they do not rise with the oil price.

They fall when the oil price falls.....and do not go up with the oil price.

This can not be a coincidence.....someone is holding the O&G shares back.

THE BIG RE-RATE
Folks are saying that there is going to be a big re-rate for O&G shares.
Can not see it happening.
Fund managers were told to get out of O&G.....and they did......my guess is, they aint coming back.

In the mean time.....they are making a massive load of cash.......its getting silly where the PE values are.......apart from the UK North Sea companies paying the extra 25% windfall tax......and even then, they are making a packet.

[katsy] 15/6/2022 13:16

What's the story being THG, it's a bit hard to trace back through all those form 8.5 RNS's. From what I could see back in Sept 20 they were happy with a all share buyout of 500p, the share price reach 800p and now sitting at around 100p despite still being in takeover mode.

[katsy] 15/6/2022 13:11

Cinoib yes that link works fine for me. Maybe the Spanish have blocked it! Anyway I found that story on here, Dated 12th June.

[cinoib] 15/6/2022 12:41

Katsy, is your ural correct as I can't open it, keep getting error.

[donald pond] 15/6/2022 12:13

I've rarely seen such a big and clear downtrend as AAZ has had for the last 18 months. But on the other hand, we have plenty of form in doubling in little time, and the current yield is now over 7%.
I don't think its a question of the market believing what the board says about growth. I think the truth is simpler: that we are overlooked and in a sector that is unloved. We can't change sector sentiment, but the buyback, ratification, news from Zafer and Vejalny etc are all going to be very positive catalysts over the next quarter. It just needs a touch more patience.

[michaelfenton] 15/6/2022 12:02

lefrene - lets hope so.

[king suarez] 15/6/2022 11:45

This highlights the relative underperformance of AIM O&G shares still?!

[lefrene] 15/6/2022 11:04

mf, I noticed a large sell in gold at 07:45 this am, the resulting circa $5 drop has now been reversed. It would be good if the gamers are running out of ammo. No doubt once those with the ammo to keep shorting run out of credit, the market will get wind and there could be a panic to cover? Then we would see the re-rating.

[wanobi] 15/6/2022 11:02

I suspect many are simply going to cash for the summer now,,, let the markets/world do its thing and see what's wot in the Autumn,,,, or, head in sand and don't look in till then :-)... cheers Wan :-)

[wanobi] 15/6/2022 10:55

yep, tis a mess out there right now Lp, for sure and the likes of AAZ are brought down on very small volumes... Cheers Wan :-)

[michaelfenton] 15/6/2022 10:40

Manipulation is rampant and cannot (I hope) be retained forever so the shock/horror will eventually occur. Rise in Gold/Silver prices.

[lloydypool] 15/6/2022 10:28

Also, BTC flirting with sub $20k as I type, what is happening to the cash being withdrawn there? Are hodlers waiting on the sidelines or looking for somewhere else to reinvest?

[lloydypool] 15/6/2022 10:25

Investors are selling anything they can at this stage so I expect AAZ could drop further until buy backs start. Very few shares are escaping and since Friday I’ve been butchered despite being largely in cash! The stuff that I hadn’t sold (heavily oil weighted) has all fallen, anything I’ve been looking at that looks like it is now great value has then fallen further.

I’m sat on 50% cash in my PF plus cash in the bank earning a tiny % whilst inflation eats away and I’m sure many are in similar positions. That makes me wonder whether actually there may be a point much sooner than we expect where the quality stocks start to turn up quite quickly.

[lefrene] 15/6/2022 10:03

No wonder that's not being reported in Western media, it falls into the same category as the Repo Market hiatus of 17-9-19, much too big and nasty for the plebs to get wind of.

So it's begs the question as to why is Gold so cheap, and nothing being done about the obvious manipulation (see Andrew McGuire and Alasdair McCleod) I'm expecting the gold gamesters to run out of ammo, and when they do a rapid value correction will occur, it's only a matter of when, and it could be soon.

In the meantime would the President kindly take Sir Humphrey around the back of the bike sheds and give him the 'message'.

[wanobi] 15/6/2022 10:00

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


who knows!!!

war!
rat!
ggrrrr!!!

Cheers
Wan :-)

[wanobi] 15/6/2022 09:54

yes, down this year for sure, but up on the game since starting by way more than bank interest and inflation, so happy with that,,, can always do better & worse!!,,, I suppose it's easier only using funds in SIPP & ISA wrappers as that way I can ignore the yearly performance as I don't need to be accounting for cap gains, losses and associated tax each year etc etc,,, I just look at progress from the start of the game..... that said, I'm expecting further drops in the value of my holdings,,, AAZ may even test 80p again and form a double bottom from which AAZ's own buying can lift them away,,, maybe LOL :-) oh what a game it is :-) GLA Cheers Wan :-)