Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[wanobi] 12/2/2021 17:31

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Cheers
Wan :-)

[greggphilips88] 12/2/2021 17:29

Thanks JB.
The bit on the techie paper about the Ararat plant was particularly informative, although some was over my head.

I've been following AAZ for a while but only started investing after being unceremoniously turfed out of HGM after some Russian bandits took it for a steal. I did well out of HGM but it's frustrating when you have to sell a share you've spent a long time researching and believe has far to go. I put some proceeds from HGM into AAZ but far more into SHG and other miners. Since then I've researched more and now prefer AAZ and have added since the conflict started so it's now a lopsided 13% of my portfolios. SHG and SLP are smaller but chunky % of my portfolios too.
I guess my point is, it takes time to develop good knowledge about a share, so I'm very much learning about AAZ, and appreciate the excellent discussions on this board. It's really helpful to new investors here.
My sense of AAZ is that there is so much potential here now, but it will be 2022 before we probably see that turned into material GEOs. The view to 2023/24 looks exciting, but obviously POG is an unknown. Patience is def required.
It's not a share I worry about, and I'm looking forward to the divis as a bonus.
My one main concern is that AAZ will have to dilute to raise the funding to take advantage of these amazing new opportunities. However, I note that they haven't done that since IPO, that Reza is an impressive majority shareholder, and that they will be generating a lot of cash and can borrow easily at low rates.
So much to look forward to. Thanks for the welcome to the board.

[brasso3] 12/2/2021 17:20

or this Wan:-

[wanobi] 12/2/2021 17:05

The oldest bank in America, Bank of New York Mellon (BNY Mellon), said Thursday that it will now be accepting, holding and issuing bitcoin for its clients.



might be something to do with it :-)





Cheers
Wan :-)

[qazwsxedc69] 12/2/2021 17:00

ARB has just exploded in the US. Under $2 at UK close to $2.60 in last 30 mins :-)

[pogue] 12/2/2021 16:53

A good article on Oil Price, good 'cause it agrees with my viewpoint probably lol
Basically oil price has a lot of positive things happening built into it just now that just might not happen... All maybe fine but the risk is to the downside for me.



Oil prices slipped on Friday morning for a second day in a row as major forecasters warned that the global demand recovery is still fragile and as the U.S. dollar strengthened....

..OPEC also warned on Thursday of a weaker start to this year, and expects oil demand to rise by 5.8 million bpd in 2021, down by around 100,000 bpd from last month's projection due to lockdowns in major developed economies in the first half of this year....

..Torbjörn Törnqvist, chief executive at one of the world's largest independent oil traders, Gunvor, told Bloomberg last week that oil prices were unlikely to soar much above the $60 per barrel mark, considering that this price level would incentivize a lot of oil supply, including from the United States...

..The current oil price strength is dependent "on continued restraint from the OPEC+ group of producers supported by "paper" demand from speculators," Saxo Bank said early on Friday....

[jbravo2] 12/2/2021 16:51

Hi gregg,
Welcome to the board.
Here are my guesstimates.

The ore is currently processed using the Albion process. You can read up on it here

I’d presume we’d need either an Albion plant, a pressure oxidation plant or a roasting plant. The limited reading I’ve done on it suggests Albion plants are the lower capex option.
I’d presume they’d want to build it somewhere near the mine but then questions of security have to be addressed by the govt. It also needs to have the govt ready to run with infrastructure. People, power (it will use lots of this), water. Will the govt want it there?
I think we’re talking 100m minimum as a ball park. We’d have half of that in cash and presumably borrow the other half. It could be more than 200m if we go for a big throughput rate plant. I’d guess it could be constructed in 2 years but of course lots is going to depend on the infrastructure. Will the roads be ready to transport all this plant into the region and will the workers have anywhere to live as they build the plant?
There is an option to build more plant at Gedabek but that makes less sense commercially in the long run and there is a good mine life here. Transport of ore, or crushed ore, whatever, is going to be expensive over those mountains.
Having processing in Kalbajar might also help with Vejnaly in the long run as the govt plans to build a north south link road in the liberated territories.

[leopoldalcox] 12/2/2021 16:40

I'm assuming you bought your place some time ago Oakey1. I'm looking at buying my first flat and just to have something small (I'm in London) is going to be many times my pretax salary

[leopoldalcox] 12/2/2021 16:35

@Donald PondI've been looking out for a new podcast. Are you guys on a break?

[arab3] 12/2/2021 16:35

When was that Oakley 1 if you don't mind me asking ?

[mattjos] 12/2/2021 16:28

Most AIM punters still don't seem to be interested in Divis, preferring to try and find the next 'rocket' …. but, AAZ dividends have been mounting up & will very shortly total a fantastic cumulative 16.425p, over just 29 months

[greggphilips88] 12/2/2021 16:27

Thanks for sharing the GPM Bond prospectus info, I'd not read it yet but have now. It certainly raves about Zod being a world class deposit, which was exciting to read.
The Zod / Soyudlu mine produces sulphide ore now. The GPM prospectus made a big deal of the impact of the Albion Processing Technology that they implemented at the 270km away Ararat processing facility. It states "by the time the Albion Processing Technology was launched, all the Zod mine's oxidised ore reserves had been exhausted. The remaining reserves represented sulphide ore which could not be economically treated through existing flowsheet due to low recovery rates and high operating costs. " It goes on to say that the new technology "significantly increased recoveries and resulted in reduced operating costs with a modest capital investment".
So, if / when AAZ is able to start operations here again, where will we process this ore. If we need a new, equivalent processing plant, what will that cost (what is a modest outlay)? Can it be built nearby? How long will that take?
Just interested in experienced contributors views, as it is an exciting addition for AAZ but I'm not clear when we can realistically expect / hope for it to start contributing to produced GEO's?
The truth is, AAZ has so many exciting new opportunities, it's hard to get your head around the details and implications of each one...

[oakey1] 12/2/2021 16:26

Avsome1968 you sound like a clued up bloke...I got my mortgage at 21 and had it paid off by 27....and I’m just a joiner so not massive pay...just takes hard work and not having things you can’t afford

[mattjos] 12/2/2021 16:25

Mining sector dividend yields are best value for years, suggests Citigroup

"......Metals & Mining as a sector has the highest relative dividend yield relative to the UK, with arguably more sustainable dividends said the broker in a note.

“The miners are currently trading at a dividend yield of 6.2%, compared to 15-year average of 2.5%.

“The UK market yield is 3.4%, slightly lower than 3.9% average.

“Consequently mining offers a 271bps yield premium to the UK market vs an average of -56bps in the past 15 years.”

“In other words, assuming consensus dividend forecasts are correct, there is a 65% upside to the mining sector if it were to trade inline the market dividend yield.”

Citigroup also sees potential for the mining sector to raise dividends in future, adding that it now already contributes around 12% of the dividends in the UK market - the highest levels ever.

“At spot commodity prices, the dividends of the UK mining companies could double relative to 2019 levels."

[terropol] 12/2/2021 16:16

Would like to know why people mess about with 100 and 200 lots of shares....

Looks selling 100 lots to try and bring the price down........

[jbravo2] 12/2/2021 15:25

@cannon
Soyudlu is the name the company used for the Zod deposit in the last presentation.
I’m presuming it’s come from the Azerbaijan govt who have been quite active on trying to get news corporations etc to use the name they desire.

[2sporrans] 12/2/2021 15:24

Baddeal

Thanks for posting that on Zod production potential.

Not read the GPM bond prospectus myself but i posted up on what i found from
going through the recent Fitch Bond status revision notes - post 44061.

Fitch stated:
"We assume that from 2022 onwards gold output would average 147,000 oz. "
[This is specifically for Zod, which is consistent with the implied production of ~155k gold for 2020 based on their forecast for Zod's production for 2021:
"GPM's gold production to be impeded in 2021 by at least 20%, with an output of 125,000 oz"; i.e. 155k less 20% [minimum] = 120k].

Did GPM actually increase the plant capacity by 10%?
The Fitch notes suggest they did.

Dunno how much of the ~150k would come out of the Armenian side of Zod.
Not a lot of it.
In any event, seems the 150k is a plant constrained figure; i.e. the potential
production could be even higher, maybe even from the better endowed Azerzi side [73% by area and the best of the ores on top] alone!

Looking at the sheer scale of the excavations and bearing in mid the high grade
of 3.4g/t av. that's not hard to believe.

[cannonfodd3r] 12/2/2021 14:59

JB et al, Zod or Sotk gold mine is within the Soutely contact area, not soyudlu, that is where the tailings dam is and they found more trace gold when doing trenching and river bank analysis.

Don’t want folk getting confused that’s all

[riggerbeautz] 12/2/2021 14:52

Lol Ged, good to hear from you again, took a little off when it peaked, as always, I’m ok with what I have but might add again, doesn’t take much volume to move.

Really like the way they have gone about things since selling the supposed Crown Jewels to V.VO, I’d say it’s worked well. There was a lot of negativity at that point and not many fans in the U.K (see how quiet board is - best indicator for me at times) but look how it’s turned around, even with the share having weed out stale bulls.

Think McMaster is doing a reasonable job now, whatever the past, happy to have you on board.

[onedayrodders] 12/2/2021 14:24

XTR chart pennant / flag formed .. just needs the right RNS and next news can't be far away ... was 9p just a few weeks ago.

Next news will be grade news at their hugely successful 1000m Copper drill.
Commercial grades will be transformational and put them on par with peer who's market cap is 4 x XTR.

Note, Risk is there until grade confirmed

[goldrush] 12/2/2021 13:31

baddeal

I have also read the GPM bond prospectus and the huge significance to us. You are spot on to give an extract so that all can get a flavour of what is included.

The implication of getting to 150k oz is humungous and the word transformational does not seem enormous enough 😀😀

[baddeal] 12/2/2021 13:17

For those of you who haven't read it yet have a dig through the GPM bond prospectus it contains some interesting info as to exactly the potential value of zod. Below is an extract. GPM were also planning more capex in 2019 and 2020 to increase Ararat by a further 10% capacity which presumably indicates they thought they could get close to 150koz a year from zod for the next 18 years or so!They were also transporting the mined rock 270km to process. Assuming we can put in place a closer and cheaper solution we should also be able to deliver a better margin than GPM."GPM Gold is a gold and silver mining and processing complex comprising the Zod open-pit mine in the Gegharqunik Marz region (located approximately 197km to the north-east of Yerevan) and the Ararat processing facility (located approximately 46km to the south-east of Yerevan and approximately 270km by rail from the Zod mine). In 2014, the Ararat processing facility was upgraded with a new Albion Process Technology, which allowed the Group to switch to sulphide ore processing at this site. Albion Process Technology, developed by Australian companies Xstrata Technology (now Glencore Technology) and Core Process Engineering allowed the Group to increase the total gold recovery to up to 87-88% within two years from 20-30%. Ore from the Zod deposit is transported directly by rail to the Ararat processing facility. As at 1 January 2019, the Zod deposit had 2,813koz of gold reserves and 5,325koz of gold resources, with a mine life of 18 years, based on reserves, and 31 years, based on resources, and average gold grade of 3.4 g/t. The Ararat processing facility had a current annual through-put capacity of 1.45Mt (based on actual results for the year ended 31 December 2018)."

[gold finger 1] 12/2/2021 13:14

It does seem that any new presentation is met with a drop in the share price.
These presentations are full of good news, so why the drop?
It just seems to me that someone want the brakes put on here to get people to sell out of boredom.
Its just how it always feels to me anyway.

[bleepy] 12/2/2021 13:07

Russia peacekeepers ensure safety of 2 Azerbaijan convoys of equipment through Karabakh

More than 60 Azerbaijani trucks, accompanied by Russian armed personnel, delivered construction materials for the restoration of the infrastructure of Shushi city, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

hxxps://news.am/eng/news/628410.html

[pogue] 12/2/2021 13:05

someuwin
very interesting report. Started off me thinking about the need for Asimov's laws of robotics to be introduced now and Terminator if we dont lol. One thing about them they don't seem to consider trends they predict interacting a bit more with each other. If the world will be using more driverless hire vehicles and flying drones for delivery and even transport how will car manufacturers benefit as private ownership will decrease dramatically. I know I would be happy to get rid of my family's cars. Overall it rings true on the way we are going, giving much more ability to control and monitor people in an online world and rental off everything from cars to space for all your data on servers which ties in with the IMF's socialist view of how they want to bring populations under their control so looks like the path is set. Perhaps the Matrix is not that far away.