Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 27/6/2020 19:31

I am not in the $5,000 / $10,000 Gold camp. I think those people are off the reservation & generally consist of Gold commentators who are also trying to sell something.As things stand, I believe we will reach my Possibility 3 price target of circa $2,700.This virus seems unlikely to be a one & done event & further subsequent waves seem inevitable. Whether any one of those waves is bigger than the first one or, they are all progressively weaker, remains to be seen & we probably won't know the answer to that for at least another 7-9 months - during which time we also have the USA election & BREXIT to navigate.So, October thru March looks to be a period of very, very heightened risks & therefore heightened emotions .. Fear will be a dominant emotion amongst market participants & that should ensure continued flows into the oldest 'safe haven' in the world - Gold.This also ties in with a statistically strong seasonal period for the price of Gold & also October has often proved itself to the month when very unpleasant things can happen in the markets.As far as AAZ investors are concerned. We will be in receipt of two dividend payments in that timeframe + updates on Exploration & Strategy. Our cash flow and profits should remain in a strong upward trajectory. Plenty of strong reasons to keep hold and for the share price to move ahead & achieve new higher highs, imo.

[wanobi] 27/6/2020 18:43

many thanx jeanesy,,, for ease of life :-) here's the clickable link for all :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[jeanesy] 27/6/2020 18:40

hxxps://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/aim-aaz/anglo-asian-mining-shares/news/anglo-asian-mining-plc-lonaaz-passed-our-checks-and-its-about-to-pay-a-us0-045-dividend/

[sh0wmethemoney] 27/6/2020 18:15

Hi Matt, thanks for taking the time and effort to post your view of the EW theory, very educational. I will carry on sitting on my AAZ holding and wi;; try to sit on my gold SB I opened on the dip on Friday afternoon.

[polaris] 27/6/2020 18:05

Clearly generated by an automatic script with one of a set of stock phrases before each number is presented. Note the insertion of £ before the dividends when they are clearly in $. However, some coverage is better than no coverage, despite the random 'unstable dividend track record'. I can only assume that the script algorithm has looked at the 4 declared dividends and the fact that they zig-zag...because they are 6 monthly...and decided that this is a risk! If they were annual dividends then you might describe them as lumpy or, at a push, unstable. On a YoY basis they are everything you can ask for.

Edit
Also the dividend yield is correctly calculated assuming $ for the dividend of $0.08.

[wanobi] 27/6/2020 17:47

"Current gold-stock valuations remain relatively low, arguing this post-stock-panic gold-stock upleg still has lots of room to run higher. Add in recent high-consolidation technicals that much more closely resemble mid-upleg pauses rather than post-upleg serious selloffs, and sentiment shifting more bearish since this gold-stock upleg stalled in mid-May, and this powerful gold-stock run sure doesn’t look like it is over yet."

enjoy :-)
Cheers
Wan :-)

[2sporrans] 27/6/2020 17:15

Thanks Bazboa

alternative link:



As to their 2 risk factors:

No arguing wrt the volatile share price but take issue with the "unstable dividend track record".
The dividends have only ever been growing and well covered since maiden; wtf is unstable about that?

[2sporrans] 27/6/2020 17:03

Thanks Matt for the considerable effort you've put in to illustrate your
5 wave thesis for POG movements with such clarity; the current 5th [advancing] wave being of course the one it will be gratifying is fulfilled in either possibility 2 or best of all 3 form.

I guess something we can all agree on is that if poss. 3 comes to pass over the coming years [rather than months for this one I guess], none of us will be fussed as to just how much can be put down to "Fear and Greed" and EW dictum or a combination of several [other] known drivers, as below explain it better.
Accepted, the more often a pattern of market behaviour is observed, the more it will be adopted by predictive modellers which, for maybe a decade or 3 will mean that PIs may improve their odds in some future investment plays by mimicking them.
I also acknowledge that there is some foundation in nature for EW patterns to be realised and Fibonacci retracements in particular crop up time and again in market price behaviour.

Thing is with gold, there's at least a few discrete major drivers, enduring over the passage of time, that function in completely different and often opposed manners.
For example, physical gold demand is mostly determined by ASian buying, especially Chinese/Indian, which in turn is mostly to satisfy the demand from the Jewelry trade.
So, as disposable incomes rise in Asia and consumption:savings ratios too, this ought be a good time for POG - as a function of physical demand. [i.e. current times don't look at all promising for POG, as determined by this driver alone.]
One the other hand, for those like dp who look at gold as purely a monetary asset, the drivers [more than 1] are quite different and we have discussed those at length on this bb in the contexts of ongoing monetary/fiscal largesse and where economies, inflation and/or deflation etc may be heading.
These drivers are currently very dominant and in the ascendancy.
Whatever is motivating various Central Banks to buy/sell gold has also generally been very supportive to accumulating it and looking set to continue in the main from what i can tell. Not universally, as e.g. didn't the Russkies flip over to becoming modest sellers from mid 2019, having been big buyers previously? Maybe that's changed once again.


It's beyond me to fashion an opinion as to whether the diversity of these disparate drivers for POG and how they net out is supportive for EW modelling or nay; I am however open to the possibility that it may be.

[bazboa] 27/6/2020 16:50

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/aim-aaz/anglo-asian-mining-shares/news/anglo-asian-mining-plc-lonaaz-passed-our-checks-and-its-about-to-pay-a-us0-045-dividend/

[mattjos] 27/6/2020 15:50

Final point is that the 'Channel' shown on the charts is 'imperfect' in that some of Wave 3 appears to plot below the line.
ADVFN don't offer a Semi-Log option on their charts, which is how you should draw the EW channels. You can only draw it normally or Logarithmically on this package & I don't have another chart package that offers that functionality.
I suspect a semi-log chart would give a much clearer timeframe for when Gold is likely to hit one of the two possible price targets & that would also converge better on the upper parallel line of the channel.

Anyway, hope it has been of some use / interest to a few here. For those not interested then, I'm sure the thread will quickly fill up with posts that consign my posts on this to the history bin

I suppose the valid question some may ask is; "Have you used the theory on how you have invested in AAZ?" & the answer is yes, 100% I have done so

[mad foetus] 27/6/2020 15:42

Just to confirm I've not sold any AAZ shares since taking a few off table last August. I have closed all my spread bets though. But I think there is more to it than fear and greed, the way the moves in gold start well before the crisis suggests to me they are driven by very smart money.

[mattjos] 27/6/2020 15:36

As to When the Gold price will reach either $2,076 or $2,709 … that I cannot predict and neither does the Theory.

What the Theory does advise is as follows:

The two Corrective Waves (2 & 4) oppose one another in their nature & look/feel.

So, when Wave 2 is long, protracted, slow slide and retraces most of Wave 1 then, Wave 4 will have the opposite nature & look/feel. It will be shorter timeframe, more aggressively down but, will not re-trace to the same degree.
(Exactly as per the Gold chart)

Whilst Waves 2 & 4 oppose one another, Waves 1 & 5 have the same nature & look/feel.

Remember, Wave 1 was a very, very rapid advance. It shot up $633 over just 12 months.
Therefore Wave 5 will have a similar nature & look/feel.

So far in Wave 5, Gold has advanced $719 in 4½ years. An average of 43.78c per day. This is a circa 30% quicker rate of advance than Wave 3 averaged

[mattjos] 27/6/2020 15:26

& Here is the Channel using the Peak of Wave 1 for the Upper Line:

[mattjos] 27/6/2020 15:24

mf, i really am not bothered about trying to overlay some other explanation for how the price of gold will behave. Everything you said in your post are events in history which had an impact on the emotions of the participants in the gold market.
Fear & Greed are the two market extremes. Events happen which influence the emotions of participants.
You are a prime example. you are frustrated that AAZ share price is not going up and so you are casting about for a reason as to why. You have currently seized on the spread as the reason why this is the case.
Your frustrations (your emotional state) is causing your brain to seek out a reason to zero in on.
I'll wager that as a consequence of your emotions and frustrations you have sold some AAZ over the last 6 months and tried to do something else with the money & that you are far from the only one to do so. Therefore there has been some selling going on and all these individual actions influence the price & the price is reflected in the chart.
The chart enables you to dispassionately look at the entity in question and see what the emotional state of the participants is / has been / & is likely to be.

[mad foetus] 27/6/2020 15:11

Useful stuff Matt, but I would argue with the idea that the value of gold is based on emotions. IMO it is a currency, no more and no less. So it's value tends to drop when people believe the system is working well. But it acts like a canary in the coal mine when things are not so good. So the 3 triggers for gold rising quickly over the last 50 years have been the oil crisis, the dot com collapse, which merged into the GFC, and now, the realisation in 2016/8 that despite the huge cash creation a decade before, the recovery was slowing and the central banks had no ammunition to deal with the next slowdown.The key thing is, this time, I see no way that faith will be restored. Not in the short term anyway.

[polaris] 27/6/2020 14:52

Mattjos - I also believe that gold will break above the earlier high. I am not one to follow explicitly/blindly any particular theory, but they do give an indication of where things might go. In this case, the world situation also supports a breakout in gold, which any number-based theory cannot take into account per se. However, put the two together and you have a compelling argument that will support the breakout and provide a number of initial targets. Where we actually end up always involves some guesswork. The moment that any theory becomes the 'standard' then an algorithm will generate it and then do the opposite. Few believe EW theory, which means it may be a powerful predictor...i.e. the one that the current generation algorithms are working with that is contrary to general market expectations.

[jaspoland] 27/6/2020 14:36

Loving it Mattjos. Your charts on AAZ back in our darkest days gave me hope that I was backing the right horse.

The fact that all trading is computer driven suggests we would be foolish not to be aware of these theories and try and apply them to our trading. It's all about being on the right side of a trade.

So from your calculations we are heading for $2000 at some point. Nice. That will help fatten the AAZ bank account.

Thank you for your continued hard work in highlighting this to us all

[mattjos] 27/6/2020 14:03

Anyone?

I'll wager my entire AAZ holding that no one can put forward a more accurate predictive mechanism than this.


So, since it has proven itself to be an unbelievably accurate 'Theory … should we not consider asking the EW Theory as to what happens next after Wave 3? Are there other Waves?

Yes, there are other Waves & probably many here have actually been invested in AAZ or, aware of AAZ since Wave 3 peaked.

What does the theory say would happen next and did it actually happen?

August 2011 was the start of the next Wave and it was a Corrective Wave .. it is correcting some of the previous upward enthusiasm. It's called Corrective Wave 4

EW Theory says that Wave 4 will 're-trace' a certain proportion of the previous wave and that retrace will be one of the following values:

24%
38%
50%

So, lets look again at the chart and see what happened next. Did Gold re-trace after that peak & how much did it re-trace by?:



I've used the Fibonacci Retracement tool to show where these various levels of retracement are. That's what it there for in your charting packages!

Gold came back from $1,905 and actually bottomed out at $1,052. It 're-traced' down to the 50% line.

[polaris] 27/6/2020 13:59

Hi Mattjos - but isn't a lot of this self-fulfilling? The use of algorithm trading means that this sort of theory is almost hard-wired into the system. Maybe it is a reason to follow it and make money yourself? Until some new algorithm comes along to take advantage of the predictable nature of the markets using the previous one...evolution? revolution? prediction? manipulation? Chicken and egg or egg and chicken? ;-)

[mattjos] 27/6/2020 13:47

EW says that there is a predictable relationship between the values of Impulse Waves 1 & 3.

So far we have shown:

Wave 1 advanced 633 points

Wave 3 advanced 1,652 points

EW says that Wave 3 is related to Wave 1 by one of the following multiples:

Either 1.618 or 2.618

So let's divide the value of Wave 3 (1652) by the value of Wave 1 (633) & what do we get? Is it anywhere near the theory? If its not even close then, we can stop here!

1652/633 = 2.6097946

That is pretty damn close.

The theoretical calculation is 633 * 2.618 = 1,657.194. Add this on to where Wave 3 started and we arrive a theoretically perfect value for Wave 3 of:

253 + 1657.194 = $1,910.194

(on the Gold candlestick chart, Gold had intra-day highs of $1,912.6 on August 23rd 2011 & $1,921 on September 6th 2011)

So, the EW Theory that many people dismiss as irrelevant, actually predicted the peak price for Gold Wave 3 to within $10.

Can any of you here give me any other predictive mechanism that could possibly have called the high point of gold, over a 12 year Bull run, with such pinpoint accuracy?