Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[2sporrans] 24/5/2019 08:35

Had a quick look at those SPA forecast numbers when first posted here and found them off-putting. I never got around to looking at the dismal/absurd revenue/profit/PE figures that PodgyTed was first to critique - and rightly so.
But when i looked at cashflow and Dividends forecasts, the c/f looked very pessimistic, the Dividends seemed to be halved going forward.
What SPA did was to express the f/c dividend stream as a yield%, rather than a monetary value - eg. 7c for year x.
Series goes [approx. figures as from memory]:
2018 - 10%
2019 - 4.6%
2020 - 4.6%
SPA use the share price as denominator.
Said the 2018 figure adopted the historic price of 53p but did not enlighten as to the 2019, 2020 figures..
I had therefore interpreted the 2019/20 figures as assuming a much higher share price as denominator and suggested their 126p target price was being used.
But that wasn't apparent from the note; just my intuition.

This was the point at which i kinda switched off from the SPA note ....never got back to it to check out more.

[bumpa33] 24/5/2019 08:33

they should give SPA the elbow on that alone

[bumpa33] 24/5/2019 08:33

great if you can't trust your broker to not make a typo on what are fairly important numbers...

[wanobi] 24/5/2019 08:31

thanx SB, I have emailed John about these PAT numbers, today :-) Cheers Wan

[jbravo2] 24/5/2019 08:29

Icing on the cake?
You mean the highlight wasn't the club? :D

[mattjos] 24/5/2019 08:27

Bleeps, I suspect you are correct & there is a simple error in their spreadsheet. Bit of pressure from investors & I'm sure they will quickly clarify

[mattjos] 24/5/2019 08:24

Icing on the cake jb of what was a terrific visit.I imagine there is a growing sense of excitement there with regards Ordubad.Looking forward to reading the incoming data from there this year

[sportbilly1976] 24/5/2019 08:22

wan,

I'm expecting a comment/re-issuance of that btw

(suspect the 2019/2020 estimated earnings are a typo, see comments on other thread)

[jbravo2] 24/5/2019 08:19

:D
Nice wash bag matt.
I hope you think it was worth the extra money.
(FZ and I were too tight to fork out for wash bag class tickets :D)

[wanobi] 24/5/2019 08:16

AAZ just had to post this link here so I can find it easily...…. :-)


& to look at the debate going on the main AAZ thread in regards to:-

Profit after tax:-
2018 $16.3m
2019 $6.3m
2020 $8.7m

which for any other newbie's like me here can be seen on page 3, PAT....

which as many have posted needs to be looked into :-)

Cheers
Wan :-)

[bumpa33] 24/5/2019 08:14

clearly the mkt got wind of this yesterday.

[bumpa33] 24/5/2019 08:11

morning folks, short a few OMU first thing 113.6 - rather odd RNS.

[mad foetus] 24/5/2019 08:10

I'm doing my twitter thing to SPA and AAZ, there is a regulatory duty here

[sportbilly1976] 24/5/2019 08:05

Bleepy,

think your post maybe a lot closer to the truth than SPA would want to admit...are these notes not proof read before emailing out?

Dropped JM an email too regarding the fall in PAT in 2019 v actuals in 2018, when I've emailed him previously he has replied in a timely manner

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/5/2019 07:55

#bleepy..., that had occurred to me too, a simple typo .., or possibly just the H1 figure not annual ..
Very interested to see what response #Mattjos gets back...

It is pi55 poor after such a stellar years financials in 2018 to low ball the forecasts or make a typo in the most important bit.., the future..

It won't matter much over time of course, the truth will come out in the wash through results but, disappointing to lose momentum after such a strong 2018.

Happy to draw a line under it once I’ve seen the reasoning / logic behind their maths or if it’s a keyboard error ...

[mad foetus] 24/5/2019 07:45

I think you are right GoodGrief and although others know more than me, I think the jurisdictional risk element of Azerbaijan is much lower than many other countries. Indeed, when you see Corbyn talking of nationalising water and the national grid and not compensating shareholders, you could argue that the UK is moving up the jurisdictional risk curve.Really hope SPA spring into action today and the data feeds used by industry get updated. I may drop them a line making the point: they advise AAZ on compliance with listing rules, so either the figures are accurate or they should be advising AAZ to update the market with a trading materially ahead statement.

[wanobi] 24/5/2019 07:38

listening to Trump this morning & his comments on including Huawei in a trade deal I get the impression 'the art of the deal' man see's a deal in the near future,,, :-) Lets see, cheers Wan

[wanobi] 24/5/2019 07:13

Good morning all :-) yes, I agree chaps, ORM is a waiting game, they have the plant running well, they just need to run the high grade stuff through it and produce some decent financials and it'll come good... all providing the POT holds up or improves & the world doesn't roll over into a massive recession :-) LOL

In the meantime peoples patience levels will be tested and those with short term horizons will sell up and jump to a faster moving proposition,, each to their own,,,

KS, very interested to hear your comment in regard to a share of joint venture profits from other operations, I must have missed that along the way, can you share the source of those thoughts? Thanx

cheers Wan :-)

[bleepy] 24/5/2019 00:25

2018 $16.3m
2019 $6.3m
2020 $8.7m

or simply a clerical error

2018 $16.3m
2019 $16.3m
2020 $18.7m

[mattjos] 24/5/2019 00:13

right .. I have written to SPA and asked them to clarify their assumptions that underpin their forecasts in the last note.

It is less than 1 month to the AGM … if SPA do not offer up a decent explanation or correction then, please ensure all who attend the AGM, speak up and let's bottom this issue there, if not earlier.

The AGM is the one opportunity shareholders get to meet with Reza and the BOD & with SPA present in the same room.
If this is important to folk then, get yourself to the AGM and ask .. this is not a face-less multi-billion $ corporation. It's a relatively small company with very slim management structure. The Directors will respond to you

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/5/2019 23:34

I appreciate everyone's efforts and inputs here, and am also puzzled by how they (Spangle) have managed to come up with their E2019/E2020 numbers, when revenues are increasing and their EBITDA/PAT numbers dropping..?

Is the plant on idle for 6 months that we don't know about, or have they somehow figured out our costs will double..?