Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[2sporrans] 20/9/2018 09:08

A level headed interpretation your Rev.
But I'm lost on this term:
"FCF minus capex"
Ain't FCF designated [by AAZ] as Op. CF less CAPEX?

[mattjos] 20/9/2018 09:06

Big buyer now in auction .. took seller for everything he had

[thechurch333] 20/9/2018 08:52

No, I read it as 2 dividend payments rather than 1. I read it as calendar 2019 FCF minus capex will be slightly lower in calendar 2019 than 2018. Also explains why the dividend was “only” 3 cents. This may be due to higher corporation tax payments.

[gutterhead] 20/9/2018 08:37

Doubling div next year! To 9p
At a sensible yield of 5% that would mean a share price of £1-80

[ilostthelot] 20/9/2018 08:24

What would a fair valuation method be?
10× free cash flow. Or for every extra year of proven mine life add an extra multiple of Free cash flow? Plus the 30M of talings dam and surly added value for speulative ive gold in ground insurrounding areas. All equipment for free. 🤔😁

[mattjos] 20/9/2018 08:20

Agreed .. should be on a forward pe of at least 5 for profits.A dividend payer should mean a forward pe of at least 7

[mad foetus] 20/9/2018 08:17

Not sure if anyone has made this obvious point. Divis for the year are 6c, let's say 4.5p. That is a quarter of FCF, which is therefore 18p. So that puts us in a PE of less than 4 (treating FCF as earnings, which isn't unreasonable). Obvs if as share price are saying the dividend doubles next year, make that PE 2.Incredibly cheap still.

[mattjos] 20/9/2018 08:16

"...... Subject to our previously released commodity price and production assumptions, the proposed dividend policy may see dividends nearly double next year ($6.7m) making it one of the top yielding precious metals producer on the London market. We will update and release our earnings estimates shortly."

[thechurch333] 20/9/2018 08:12

SP Angel saying dividend should nearly double next year. Still waiting for new forecasts to be published in full.

[mattjos] 20/9/2018 08:07

Tipped on motley fool

[trinko] 20/9/2018 07:30

True apeman

[mr roper] 20/9/2018 07:18

Very disappointed there’s no rns today. What kind of shop is this lol ;0)

[return_of_the_apeman] 20/9/2018 07:15

If rsi remains high it can also send a stock into orbit

We shall see

[trinko] 20/9/2018 07:06

Could come a little dip because of the high RSI

[return_of_the_apeman] 20/9/2018 04:27

Rose nicely into the close so perhaps a nice start today.

As we are getting some decent press coverage hopefully we will get some more retail investors in the next couple of sessions as they complete their research.

Mattjos,

Without wanting to sound presumptious, perhaps when you return from your hols, you might update the header with the news flow now due - jorc for Gadir, ex div date and amount, heli survey and the other known ongoing exploration activities?

Thanks for the effort you put into this thread, it has saved me so much time

[thejonah] 19/9/2018 23:45

Well done W for resisting the temptation to post. Bet you have been itching to do so. Forget what I said about the safer stocks, whack the whole SIPP in AAZ as soon as you can, then diversify into safer stocks with some sales and the dividends. Wish I had funds to do the same!

[2sporrans] 19/9/2018 23:18

King Suarez

Thanks for your observations on Ordubad.

Just to add to JB's post and those mines over the borders [Armenia/Iran], these 3 below are I believe still active and - even if 1 or 2 past their prime - are pretty large.
Kadjaran is in fact distinctly huge, having contained ~6% of the world's molybdenum deposits as well as a load of copper.
They are all within 10km of the Odubad licence perimeter I believe, though separated by high mountains.
In the latest H1 Explo. report {ordubad section] there's a wee map indicating where they are.

Some links, just for indicative info. :


hxxp://www.cronimet-mining.com/en/mining/operations/armenia/




hxxp://www.geopromining.com/en/our-business/operations/agarak/




hxxps://financialtribune.com/articles/economy-business-and-markets/11328/sungun-copper-mine-capacity-doubles




On 1 hand, their bounties of course guarantee nothing wrt Ordubad; on t'other it proves the Soviets snouted out a good few bonanzas in the region and also offers a good reason as to why they hadn't gotten around to a fuller exploration or development of Ordubad with plenty already on their table.

[edjge2] 19/9/2018 22:44

papy02 yep would have done the same but nothing I'd like to sell and no cash til oct 1. Probably sell auscann on OZ so that I can do tlry on yanks as is going bonkers at present , 30% a day!

[papy02] 19/9/2018 22:17

Anyone have a view, or comment on, this para on taxation in the Interims?


The Group had a taxation charge in the six months ended 30 June 2018 of $3.0m (H1 2017: $1.4m). This comprised a current income tax charge of $2.5m (H1 2017: $nil) and a deferred tax charge of $0.5m (H1 2017: $1.4m). The Group had a current taxation charge in the six months ended 30 June 2018 as the taxable profits incurred by its operating company in Azerbaijan exceeded taxable losses brought forward from previous years. The Company therefore had no unused taxable losses carried forward at 30 June 2018. The Company expects to pay corporation tax in the year ending 31 December 2018 and future years. The taxable profits of the operating company in Azerbaijan are taxed at 32 per cent. However, the overall tax rate is higher than 32 per cent. because the UK administrative costs and depreciation of mining rights in Azerbaijan cannot be offset against the taxable profits arising in Azerbaijan.

My precis:
- brought-forward tax losses have previously eliminated any tax due on profits
- but these tax losses have now been used up
- so in future 32% tax will be paid on profits of the operating company in Azerbaijan
- but UK costs, and depreciation of mining rights in Azerbaijan, cannot be offset against the taxable profits, so the effective tax rate will be higher than 32%

This 32%+ future tax take seems material in estimating future free cashflow etc?

PS: I'm not deramping (I managed to add a third to my AAZ position during the dip to 54p today). Just interested in others' views on this.

[bleepy] 19/9/2018 22:02

Wow, Baku, that’s some capital city and more...itv, Joanna Lumney Silk Road journeys.

[bumpa33] 19/9/2018 21:22

Saw the intraday dip to 53/56 Mattjos, that may have done the job. We’ll see, moot point really anyway.

[mattjos] 19/9/2018 21:01

Thnx .. just reading report in detail and now fully understand divi $:£ thingummy. King suarez ... will have to wait now for my full answer but, I believe this should put you on the correct path + Reza is a businessman and not a miner .. very different mindset.A miner would still be raising cash to try and prove up resources and we'd have about 1Bn shares in issue by now!Reza has altogether more commercial approach and used the relatively limited IPO funding very wisely to get profitable, enduring production first & then go exploring .. safe in the knowledge that the stuff is there."Unrecovered costs are calculated separately for the three contract areas of Gedabek, Gosha and Ordubad and can only be recovered against production from their respective contract areas. The total unrecovered costs for the Gedabek and Gosha contract areas at 30 June 2018 were $82.7m and $22.6m respectively (31 December 2017: $94.6m and $21.8m respectively).

[celeritas] 19/9/2018 20:59

Joanna lumley in Azerbaijan on itv at 9.

[jbravo2] 19/9/2018 20:51

@king Suarez

Here are my thoughts. Apologies if I miss anything. Away from home and would normally type a full response on my mac. Hence this will be somewhat abbreviated

Gosha - undoubtedly disappointing if that is what is outlined in the IPO ( can't remember without my notes)
Gosha is different to our other stuff as it is a predominantly veined system. The veins have turned thinner as time has gone on and have also become more convoluted. We still mine small amounts from there but I don't see it becoming a big part unless the geology changes again.

Gedabek - definitely underestimated in the IPO. Gold held was underestimated and no formal identification of its multiple prospects we are uncovering. Gadir and Ugur were unknown as far as I'm aware... need my notes

Piyazbashi - just one of the many targets identified on Ordubad. Ordubad was the biggest prospect as far as the early data. It has many targets named, just as we're starting to get at Gedabek. The numbers here are so large that we only need to prove up one or two decent ones to nail it.
Ordubad is surrounded by mines across the border.

Ultimately the geography and geology of the whole Tethyan belt means we should find stuff of varying qualities and metals all over the place.
What's the odds of finding Ugur just a few km from Gedabek main pit otherwise?
All you need is a miner with varying plant who can take advantage of whatever ore is found. A miner with proven capability and moving fast and efficiently.

Hang on just a minute...

[jbravo2] 19/9/2018 20:40

Re the dividend the conversion is happening at the av price as detailed in the RNS

"The dividend will be payable in pounds sterling. The dividend will be converted to pounds sterling using the average of the sterling closing mid-price using the exchange rate published by the Bank of England at 4pm each day from the 15 to 19 October 2018."