Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[jeanesy2] 28/9/2015 19:48

Sadly the sentiment in miners is at an all time low. This will not rise while things in the sector are so dire. This has done pretty well today considering the carnage among other miners. Not sure when the sentiment will improve in the near future. Could well buy at much cheaper prices than this imo !

[brasso3] 28/9/2015 19:46

Cyber

The only risk remaining for me is the gold price. I think AAZ could now survive with gold at $1000/ oz. 4 weeks ago that thought would have got me running for the exit.

[cyberbub] 28/9/2015 19:31

Well not *all* the risk... but a big chunk of it IMO... money to be made for the patient... and those not buying on credit....GLA NAI

[brasso3] 28/9/2015 18:37

I will struggle to resist buying more AAZ shares at this crazy level.

All the risk has been removed yet you can still buy at this massive discount.

[mattjos] 28/9/2015 15:02

Let's see if the Swiss investigation turns up anything in the rigging of the PM markets. Same old suspects

[webshares] 28/9/2015 11:40

Yep would help clarify all positions here

[jbe81] 28/9/2015 10:47

a holdings rns would help

[webshares] 28/9/2015 10:22

Busy day so far.....

[captain_crash_and_burn] 28/9/2015 09:46

yeah I expected more action this week.

[jbe81] 28/9/2015 08:54

Buys will come, supply will become very tight soon and this will fly cyberbub

[cyberbub] 28/9/2015 08:14

Weird... just a single £500 trade so far...

[mattjos] 27/9/2015 14:15

This sort of technology was not around when the Siemens brothers mined Gedabek.We don't know exactly the rate of Cu extraction that the flotation plant will be able to achieve. We do know that Gedabek has plenty of Sulphide ore and it is this that the flotation plant is there for.They clearly also believe they have some Zinc (perhaps coming in from Gadir) which they will use the original smaller flotation cells to experiment with + any other metals they might find. Gedabek & the area generally is know to also host Molybdenum & some lead.Some further reading here for those that like research:https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/14722/2/Revised%20Formatted%20Paper.doc

[jbravo2] 27/9/2015 13:21

We don't achieve full spot price as we're not producing pure copper. We usually get c.$2500/t.
Still 5000t a year would see $12.5m/yr, and actually that was at elevated prices to where they are now. I'll bet closer to $10m

[bumpa33] 27/9/2015 09:32

At current copper spot you're saying $25m revenue from copper alone for FY2016??

[brasso3] 27/9/2015 07:21

Matt

Can you include the daily and 6 monthly live charts with volume in the header the same as the old thread?

[mattjos] 26/9/2015 22:13

Good to see a few old holders returning .. Those that have been holders before and experienced the last upswing and then the long fall back, should now clearly understand the dynamics of the company &, I would suggest most importantly, understand the duality of the PSA & how, post peak CAPEX, the balance swings firmly in favour of the company.That effect should be greatly amplified by the influence of the new processes and capacity the company has introduced. Arguably, a much, much greater +ve lever than last time yet, the market cap is virtually as it was before the last time.Analysts will be struggling early next year to put a more sensible valuation on the company and hide their embarrassing & woeful coverage this last 2 years.They've called it wrong so many times already that it's hardly surprising they are now keeping quiet. Buy, Buy, Buy .. When it was clearly a sell. Hold, Hold, Hold when it is clearly a Buy. They'll go BUY 6 months after the turn

[jungmana] 26/9/2015 21:11

Last time i held, AAZ was in the 30's. Am in again at 5.50p this week. Huge turn around here and imo this could 2 bag from here by new year.Good luck all .

[mattjos] 26/9/2015 19:35

Of course the Gold production is what will catch the eye & next year we should be over 80koz as Gadir will be contributing for the full year .. but, don't lose sight of the Copper output.
Next year will see the full year effect of the combined agitation leach & flotation plants in tandem & that should increase production of Copper by 5-6 times - see statement in the 'Invest in Azerbaijan' article:
"The company is also building a flotation plant at Gedabek due for completion in Q3/2015, which is expected to recover an additional 5,000 ounces of gold and 1,200 tonnes of copper this year alone." That is 4,800t annualised .. 6times 2014 FY production.

Remember, that Gedabek was historically a Copper mine under the Siemens brothers, with Gold & Silver as by-products. I have long argued that this is actually how Gedabek should still be viewed by investors.

From the Nov 14 JORC upgrade; "The contained copper in the ore reserve estimate has increased by 72 per cent. to 102 thousand tonnes and the recoverable copper increased by over 570 per cent. to 76 thousand tonnes compared to 11 thousand tonnes in the May 2012 ore reserve statement. This is a result of including ore with high copper grades that can be economically recovered by flotation."

FY2016 production should be in the region of: 80koz Gold @ over 5,000t Cu

[on target] 26/9/2015 19:14

Good posts Brasso. There is truly immense upside potential here from the current share price

[brasso3] 26/9/2015 16:07

Q4 production with the floation plant should be around 20000 oz if we are being conservative. Q4 for 2014 was 17000 oz. That would bring in revenue at $1100 gold price of $22m for the quarter!!!

[brasso3] 26/9/2015 16:02

From Azerbaijan news reports we already know the July and August production for AAZ:-

July - 207.4 Kg (6668 oz)
August - 185.5 Kg (5963 oz)

I would expect September to be on par with August as the weather is similar and there will be a few hundred ounces from the floatation plant. Therefore Q3 production should be 18000 - 19000 oz).

[brasso3] 26/9/2015 15:51

The financial position at the end of June was $1.7m in the bank with $48.7m debt.

I expect that they can pay down $0.8m of the debt per month in Q3 as there will be additional CAPEX getting the floatation plant running.

So with cash in the bank and the last 3 months production debt could now be down to $45m (end of September).

For Q4 production should be around 7000 oz a month with the floatation plant online. That is $7.7m revenue a month for the last three months of the year. That should bring debt below $40m by year end.

[mattjos] 26/9/2015 00:45

Added the long term chart with some comments to the header .. its a hyperlink again

[cyberbub] 25/9/2015 19:00

Just checking in again, sorry I wasn't being clear earlier, yes I know closing shorts means buying shares...

The large 4M+ trade reported last night was clearly Bashirov selling the last (or virtually the last) of his shares, based on the 8th July RNS... unless he was blatantly lying at that time about how many he had left (who knows)...

So we're thinking that Cantor (and/or maybe some others) are trying to close *additional* substantial shorts? It does seem plausible, but how many shares would they have shorted? Difficult to tell, but surely not more than 1M - 2M shares or so, on such an illiquid share?

All completely opaque... But there has definitely been something going on again today, with that sharp rise and then seemingly manipulated fall back again (just like on results day).

Hopefully 'value will out' in the not too distant future!

GLA