Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[onedayrodders] 23/6/2020 11:52

wan ... is that a delicious pennant being played out with TXP at an all time high

Looking very good for another leg up

[2sporrans] 23/6/2020 11:43

interesting perspective dp.

Do you think that a prove up and sell understanding could have been arrived at before or shortly after the IPO ?
Or it would be a recent development?

Regards the preference to explore/develop Gedabek over Ordubad, I think the detached location of Ordubad might have been perceived as a risk/problem; moreso that Gedabek [main pit] - especially bearing in mind its Siemens pedigree - could be brought into low cost production more quickly/cheaply.

[bumpa33] 23/6/2020 11:28

Brasso - AAZ board have rarely put a foot wrong all these years, it’d be hard to make a case for them to start now. Details of JV could show a clearer path (than presently) to a mid-tier player, one would hope anyway :)

then you’d have your “catalyst...”

[donald pond] 23/6/2020 11:23

I just wonder whether there was some understanding in place that AAZ prove up Ordubad and then sell it to Azergold at an agreed price for them to produce from? I'm mindful that the president comes from Ordubad and thus personal motivation may be in play.
However, what scuppered the plan was AAZ showing at Gedabek that they could produce more efficiently than Azergold, and make surplus cash to boot. I don't know, just thinking aloud.

[ilostthelot] 23/6/2020 11:18

Yes riggerbeautz it really is easy money. We'll be trading about 50% higher within 12 months imho.

[2sporrans] 23/6/2020 11:15

While I agree with you Bleepy, re. potential JV for Ordubad,
it's clear that the potential one at advanced stages of discussion is
somewhere beyond Azerbaijan. [I expect you are fully aware of this but i just wanted to clarify.]
The reference to it is prefaced by:
"The other pillar of our overall business strategy is to diversify and pursue opportunities outside Azerbaijan that complement our existing operations and where synergies exist."

It is interesting that diversifying beyond Azerbaijan is stated to be a key strategic objective.
And note the comment above quoted by dp.

It does seem odd, given the obvious huge potential of Ordubad and it's not like
AAZ aren't spending serious money to prove up at least some of the potential.

[riggerbeautz] 23/6/2020 11:15

The only reason I’ve not added more, is I’ve lost count of the number of trading batches I’ve added to my core holding, that somehow morph into my core holding. Sit back and chill, all is good in AAZ world, raking in cash by the bucket full, proving up resource and paying a dividend whilst you wait; never been more relaxed and hold a fair few by any stretch.

Yes D.P it’s just not as risky as some perceive or would try and convince others :)

[bag158s] 23/6/2020 11:05

AGM is going on now and AAZ should move north soon

[brasso3] 23/6/2020 10:33

Bumpa

Agreed. There is no reason for them to get involved in anything outside of Azerbaijan unless its very attractive.

[bumpa33] 23/6/2020 10:31

Morning - taken a few AAZ on that RNS, nuts selling when they’ve flagged they’re almost there on announcing a new JV. Everyone who knows the company, surely knows that it would have to be a cracker of a deal for them to get involved??

[azalea] 23/6/2020 10:31

I have been looking at AAZ and on the face of it the only thing that puts me off buying is the spread.

[bleepy] 23/6/2020 10:28

One obvious potential for a JV being azergold and Ordubad due to their adjacent contract area and Azer govt eagerness to promote much needed business opportunities in Nakhchivan.

[donald pond] 23/6/2020 10:25

Thats what i said on Twitter. AAZ is the biggest employer in the area, pays 12.5% under the PSA and 38% (from memory) in tax, has directors who have huge political influence in US and lots of skin in the game. The country risk isn't half as much as people think.

[riggerbeautz] 23/6/2020 10:22

DP and lose the best performing miner they have, far better than their own outfit that can’t mine efficiently?! Righto, again people with either limited knowledge or scare mongers with an agenda I.m.o

[donald pond] 23/6/2020 10:21

I thought this phrasing was interesting: "The Company is now very focused on growing its business by both leveraging its presence in Azerbaijan and deploying its reliable cash flow elsewhere"

It's a funny way to express the idea. I read that as indicating some frustration with the speed of progress in Azerbaijan. Basically, the company is throwing off cash, and the opportunities to deploy it effectively in Azerbaijan are not coming to fruition as quickly as they could, so we will use Gedabek as a cash cow to fund a project elsewhere.

I thought that a deal was pretty much done in another country last year? I'm sure there is a JV, but equally, if the government were to come up with a plan to support a fast track development or Ordubad, perhaps AAZ would go for that first?

Who knows? As ever, there's a game of chess being played!

[wanobi] 23/6/2020 10:20

DP, yep, 100% agree,,, what else could they have said at this stage in their development plan to assuage any doubts people (like me LOL) HAD!!! nothing is a sure thing, but, the letter today goes a long way towards removing any worries LTH's like me have had... I now feel confident to add more or simply sit back and enjoy the divi and ride from here on :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[wanobi] 23/6/2020 10:16

Rb, yep, 100% agree,,, I'm sat here assessing what to sell to buy more AAZ :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[bleepy] 23/6/2020 10:14

Hasn’t gone unnoticed the pog is $345/oz higher than the average gold sales price of $1,410 per ounce for 2019.

3/6/9mths timelines expecting $1800 - $2,200/oz and that’s conservative by many.

[donald pond] 23/6/2020 10:12

a couple of folks on Twitter were saying "but he didn't say anything about tax, Az could just increase tax rates and take all the profit". Well yes, as could any country in the world, but it really misses the point about the quality of the board, the skin they have in the game, and that Azerbaijan is building a reputation as a good place to do business. Its not a big global player, it can't unilaterally dictate terms or nobody will invest there.
It is good to be sceptical, but the board have done more than enough to earn some trust.

[lefrene] 23/6/2020 10:09

I find these two snippets the most intriguing, and look forward to the meat being put on these bones.



"We are working together to maximise the benefit of Azerbaijan's abundant natural resources for both parties."

"However, the Company has been actively investigating several opportunities and negotiations are at an advanced stage for one potential joint venture. I look forward to making further announcements about this shortly when the negotiations are concluded."

[skeptic1] 23/6/2020 10:09

Is there anywhere to watch the AGM? Is it being streamed?

[bo doodak] 23/6/2020 10:08

It would appear the JV must be as good as agreed, as the usual sentence along the lines of ''however there can be no guarantee'' is conspicuous by its absence.

Wondering if it could be a JV with Altyn to develop the Teren-Sai deposit, although there is the Assaubayev factor that might be off putting. There is the BM connection, although he was there pre purchase date of Teren-Sai. Likely way off though.

[riggerbeautz] 23/6/2020 10:05

To be honest Wan I half expected a sell off day today, Reza said more than I expected on the Azeri discussions, some people still won’t accept mine life or PSA extensions until it is absolutely detailed in an RNS but I don’t think Reza could have made it any clearer the government are onside and supportive.

Holders of any length know the background and connections of the board, we are in safe hands in my opinion and as I’ve said before, I’m happy collecting a very healthy dividend myself. So today’s AGM RNS was a positive message and delivered ina manner that saves me a headache this year ;))