Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 29/5/2020 12:12

Paper schemes are all predicated on trust …. that trust wont last for ever

[gold finger 1] 29/5/2020 12:10

Is this the start of the dollar decline?

I was watching a program the other day about paper gold sales.
I think they said that for every ounce of gold,there are 100 ounces of paper gold sold.
Well whats from stopping them making it 200-300-400.
They sell paper at the price of gold.How can they lose.
They just manipulate the price of real gold so they never lose.
You are betting against the house,yet the house sets the price.
Its like a big pyramid scheme, just keep adding paper.

[klosters65] 29/5/2020 12:09

That's great. But more than anything I want to see new blood investing in this company.

[bazboa] 29/5/2020 11:58

Bonus day today....may as well stick it in AAZ as there is no point keeping in my bank. Bought a few more.

[2sporrans] 29/5/2020 11:48

Gf

"But will they close everything down again, I don't think so."

Neither do i gf.

Expect something more targeted/selective/measured.

But with Politicos, can one be sure?

[mattjos] 29/5/2020 11:46

Gold already $33 up on the brief sub-$1,700 drop back 2 days ago. Was that last chance to get Gold under $1,700 ?

[2sporrans] 29/5/2020 11:45

Lefrene

Spot on wrt zombiefication enabled and exacerbated by CB largesse.

Recessions are healthy.

Economies function best when the decisions taken in best narrow interest of
individual companies [also true for people, governments]
are alligned with the braod, best interest of the whole.
CB largesse has, increasingly, fouled this up.

So, if you are company selling into a shrinking market over next few/several years
and much moreso if 'structural' deline, what should you do?

If a really weak performer, closing down and selling off, even entire business, while still worth something is better than struggiling on into ever greater losses.

Stronger companies can either cull within or get into merger where the new combined outfit embarks upon structured "rationalisation"; both are pretty much the same thing.
And what is achieved at end of process is a leaner, more productive and competitive outfit.
If happens across the industry/ies which are in decline, then demand and supply are being kept in balance for the whole.
The evolution of the narrow and broad interests are in synch; effective, efficient and sustainable new equilibriums achieved over time.

Part of the above is to reduce CAPEX, selectively; raise the cut-off bar for new investments.
Dispose of assets that offer least margin going forward.
[If there are new avenues into alternative products/services/markets, then all well and good, redirect CAPEX; but i'm describing where these are not evident.]
Return cash to shareholders rather than invest into overcapacity.
Reduce borrowing, preferably to nil.
Managed shrinkage of business.
Share buy backs may make sense if done when share price is clearly very undervalued but
most Co.s have bigged up when they are inflated, i.e. in late stage of long
bull market.
+ have even borrowed to fund the bbs, which i agree is part of the Zombification saga.

[pogue] 29/5/2020 11:42

Regards small pharmas today they were all suffering on my list with only ORPH bucking the trend ODX have now joined ORPH though in the blue, one of those days. Opposite case in my miners where only 2 are red.

ODR
yes I know re gas play but I was avoiding O&G full stop using PoO as a thermometer basically for the sector. Gas is the product everyone is going to be switching to in the coming years, and hydrogen, to try and go green so its a good place longer term.

[mattjos] 29/5/2020 11:37

i believe they will lockdown a second time & people will obey the rules as they will fear a repeat of the Spanish flu. It will be less tempting to be going outside in the winter months.

Having locked down for the first wave, there is now a clear precedent for what to do when R rises rapidly above 1. Countries have made a rod for their own backs on that and also on the furlough scheme.

A second wave may well require several degrees more QE to get through … Gold will be one of the few beneficiaries of that

[gold finger 1] 29/5/2020 11:31

Goldrush

What amazes me is that people must think that at this moment we have just 4 years of mining life left. When we know that this will be added to when we get the Jorc in Q3.
The other targets are we hope to come on line from 2024.
They could come on earlier along with new plant, all depends what the results show over time.

People seem to not worry what is around the corner with most other stocks. Here they seem to worry what might happen in four years.
Me,i can see that big juggernaut around the corner waiting to devastate a lot of big companies for years to come. Yet their seems plenty of people that can't or don't want to see it.

[onedayrodders] 29/5/2020 11:19

wanobi ORPH
29 May '20 - 10:49 - 20487 of 20490

Yes agreed wan .. I topped up early today and expected a bigger move although I'm happy for the excellent story to play out and strongly suspect great RNS newsflow from next week.

Cathal...

"We are talking to 12 big name Pharma's out of the 20 current serious Vaccine offerings who need our facility to fastrack their test."

(Q: How many of them do you think will sign a contract)

"All of them"

For context each contract would be worth £7m


DYOR
ODR

[onedayrodders] 29/5/2020 11:10

hi pogue .. TXP are 80% Gas play now I believe so PoO not a deciding factor

[droyden] 29/5/2020 11:03

Avct seemed to be another 38% retrace from approx 106 to 215ish

[bumpa33] 29/5/2020 10:57

ORPH opened choiced at 15, hugely bid - 500k in one place, managed to nick some at 15 through IG, gets to 16 bid and the form switched dramatically. Took 16 and ran. RSP’s are ridiculously fickle...

Closed STCM small gain, closed PYC small loss. That’s me done for the week, pretty uneventful really.

[goldrush] 29/5/2020 10:57

gf1

Hope your funds come from the pension fund in good time to take advantage of the share price here.The SPA Note has set the tone with the Hardman one now eagerly anticipated.

The mention in the SPA Note of news flow events gives us that inkling, that we know and have discussed here, that there are going to be a number of positive updates which can come at anytime...IMHO

[gold finger 1] 29/5/2020 10:56

2sporrans

We all know a second wave will come.
But will they close everything down again, I don't think so.
One i doubt if economy's could afford it.
I also think they know that people will not stand for another close down.

[wanobi] 29/5/2020 10:49

ORPH - I totally misread that one today, thought last nights presentation would have blown the B doors off today :-) LOL Cheers Wan :-)

[gold finger 1] 29/5/2020 10:44

I can't believe how short sighted people are these days.
That or they are just plain stupid.
There are only a hand full of companies out there that are making money,paying a nice divi and are well undervalued.
But we still only have one trade today.
They are too stupid to see that those companies that they think are so cheap still, are going to get the rug pulled from under them, when the true cost of this virus comes out for them, in time.

I honestly can't believe i still bang this fact,when i am still waiting to add another 25,000 pounds worth.
It takes me sometimes as little as 5 mins to send money from my account in england,for it to arrive in my account here.
But no, when finance institutions have your money,it seems to take up to 10 days.

[lefrene] 29/5/2020 10:43

2sporrans, I concur. Since 2008 there has been a 'zombiefication' of many firms only kept alive by falling interest rates and bigger borrowings. Then throw into that mix the lunacy of very large listed companies, borrowing huge sums to buy back their own shares even when profits were falling,(what could possibly go wrong?!).

My guess is that much of the market activity is driven by machines that can measure many things, but which cannot anticipate anything. I'm expecting the machines to react to worsening results, to steadily (or quickly?) grind prices down, and to those not asleep at the wheel to search out quality and value to attempt to preserve wealth. I see gold being part of that, and solid businesses in the gold industry also being wanted. Unhappily, just for now it's as if AAZ were the best kept gold secret on the planet, so gather ye gold buds whilst ye may :¬)

[donald pond] 29/5/2020 10:31

Like the look of that, like the recent director buys, have bought some

[wanobi] 29/5/2020 10:27

many thanx for heads up DL :-) Cheers Wan :-)


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[2sporrans] 29/5/2020 10:26

While i agree with you lefrene, i'm hoping a second leg down in equities won't
make a similar impact upon the AAZ share price as the first one did.

It's hard to 'believe' in this rally as being more than a bear market one, rather than the front end of a new bull market, if you considered, at beginning of 2020, that the 2009-20 bull market was overextended.
That was my thinking and why i was 65% in cash back in January.

Although there were cases to be made for some economies and might include the USA, China and a bunch of what are labelled EM's .....Europe, Japan were already heading into recession and another bunch of 'EM's' were hitting all manner of woes, be they
debt mis-management, oil-gas down-cycle, over-capacity in topped out export industries....whatever.

A lot of economies simply cannot afford to support extended lockdowns.
So, what you are seeing say in Brazil, Mexico....or Russia, India [most nations actually] reflects this.
The ones' that can 'afford', or think they can.....will be paying a hefty price.

Anyway, fwiw, i thought a sharp rally on the initial CB and fiscal largesse rescues in late March was appropriate.
However i did not expect it to last more than a week or 2.
I have not been able to convert my view then into a significantly more optimistic one hence.
Sure, most of the immediate liquidity fears have been assuaged but most of the solvency ones remain.

My expectation has been and remains that there will be a deep 2nd leg sell off, in all risk assets by degrees.
Some assets, sectors, nations/blocs will plumb lower than the first lows; others may well stay above them.
I expect that for equities, stock by stock, the sell off will be less of a dump-everything-for-cash affair than the Feb-March one; there will be a lot more discrimination.

Dunno how this pans out for AAZ.
On the +ve, expect the POG to actually go higher as the sell off will be accompanied
by intensifying deflationary concerns for 2020-21 [yes, some will forsee inflation thereafter] and ever more of the CB + politicos 'rescues'.
However, everything else remaining equal, i expect a selling off of risk/equities to do AAZ share price no favours.
Sure, AAZ ought to hold up far bewtter than the great gamut of small pm miners.
But it won't be perceived as immune to some shared concerns, most obviously of a mine closure, come a 2nd infection wave.

Yet, all else should not remain equal.
There ought to be very +ve news on the resource etc as posted at length here.
The sooner the better.

[lefrene] 29/5/2020 10:25

Bazboa, start a rumour that wearing a pure gold 1oz arm band will ward off all viruses :¬)

I suspect that for every real vaccine monger, there will be 100 scam vaccine merchants. But I prefer my money in a real business making real profits very efficiently, rather than pouring money into the coffers of 'promisors'.

[devonlad] 29/5/2020 10:23

HZD, strong buying this morning, chart looks like it is pent up for a move, I count roughly 5 bottoms on it in recent months so there is very strong support.

[lefrene] 29/5/2020 10:17

gold finger 1, I suspect you are correct, not only for health fears, but large numbers of people will be skint, a consumer economy just lost a large slice of it's consumers.