Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[terropol] 15/8/2018 12:24

OK Guys and Ladies, Say we get 10% less profits than we would do on 1300$ oz.
THis year we are not really paying interest on loans relative to last year.
We are not making capital repayments hence no cash flow pressure.
Profit margin remains healthy even at 1100$xoz.
Like stated before from other posters on here we translate Dollars to Sterling on our accounting, Stronger dollar more Pounds.

Let`s not worry to much about this Gold price drop, ok is not good, but is not that bad to drop the share price the way it has done.

I am holding on tight, the storm will pass.

[lefrene] 15/8/2018 12:06

At least AAZ is not desperate for income, so they don't have to sell all of their production at current prices just to keep the lights on if they don't want to. I suppose the other side of that coin is that marginal producers will need to sell more to try to remain solvent, or mothball production? Like many others here, I did not expect to see a very cheap business get even cheaper.

[ilostthelot] 15/8/2018 11:28

There was a fair bit of resistance on the way up around 35p. I expect that will provide support now.

Tracking the POG on low volume the rebound back up will be just as swift.

The company continues to do its best and producing gold and profit best it can. Buy on weakness. Imo

[2sporrans] 15/8/2018 10:44

Celeritas

Concur with all you write about the $, except quibble over:

"The dollar is now far too strong so I do expect it to fall."

Is the $ far too strong?
This is debatable.

What are the key drivers for its rise?
If one understands these [and the -ve drivers too], then, on the basis [enough of] these are set to reverse, then one can reasonably make the prediction the $ will weaken.
Timing being a secondary though important issue.

How much of the $ rise is down to e.g. :
$ returning home as foreign assets liquidated - governed by?? expectations of:
Strong and superior US Co. earnings ongoing.
Rising rates on cash and bonds. - Fed. driven. + Fed. driven by economic perceptions.
Or e.g.
Rising risk aversion: foreign assets
Trade War [Trump Team] factor.
[linked to] Weak 'EM' economies being hit.
Associated with their currencies devaluing fast/much
Leading to vicious circle - as [if] raise rates high to defend currencies.
+ Risk of contagion to other 'EM' or even DM economies [but not USA].
Or e.g.
ECB postponement of QE cessation [improbable] / extension of date to KO rate rises [not improbalbe]


I mean there's plenty to chew over.

So, what do you see as the key driver[s] for the rising $?
And why/when do you think they will alter course any time soon?

[mattjos] 15/8/2018 10:15

thnx Bumpa. interesting

[lefrene] 15/8/2018 10:14

Copper prices are not doing what they are 'supposed' to do either, despite many press articles heralding a copper crisis due to the lack of new resources being brought on line.

Trump has rattled some of the biggest cages around the globe, the political fall out is being felt, it remains to be seen how serious it gets. I notice that Turkey seems to have been pulled back from the brink, so perhaps this is a turning point?

It's still the silly season, another couple of weeks and Armageddon will have been postponed again?

[bumpa33] 15/8/2018 10:07

mattjos - spoke to some of the more amenable mm’s this morning, not currently using auction process, as stated previously they are better bidders of the stock, but they know the game.

Increasingly elsewhere in other stocks they’re not making markets in time honored fashion - it’s every man for themselves right now.

[fatnacker] 15/8/2018 09:55

An excellent explanation Celeritas, its as simple as that.

[celeritas] 15/8/2018 09:45

At the end of the day there's a flight to the dollar with the dollar gaining in strength. Gold is a currency and generally does the opposite to the dollar. The dollar is now far too strong so I do expect it to fall with the corresponding move up in gold.
You also have to look at the FX rate. The dollar is very strong vs the pound. We earn in dollars which is then converted to pounds as will the dividend.
We are cheap in sterling but utterly cheap in dollars.

[jeanesy] 15/8/2018 09:45

Who knows , but there has been lots of selling in the auction recently

[fatnacker] 15/8/2018 09:41

jeanesy, 14544 would that be because the sellers a figment?

[2sporrans] 15/8/2018 09:34

Well worth reading:

hxxps://www.gold.org/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2018

As ever, lots of determinants on POG pushing either way.

E.g. My point not made at all clearly above wrt to Asian gold demand, perhaps the main buy-more driver is increased fear/uncertainty, including buying AHEAD of local currency depreciation; big buy-less is diminished capacity/desire to buy AFTER substantial depreciation has happened.

Are we all become watchers of the strong $; waiting, hoping for it to peak....then reverse?

[celeritas] 15/8/2018 09:34

KS, that's just churn and best guess that people might sell/hold or buy more.
Look at the fundamentals which are much more important than when people bought or sold.

[jeanesy] 15/8/2018 09:32

That is normally true catsick but the strength in the POG in the last 6 months of the year is normally due to the buying done in the far East . There is a concern that may not happen this year .

[catsick] 15/8/2018 09:29

I am basing my gold bullishness turn here on its highly seasonal nature, we are just about to enter the strong 6 months of the year when all the gains are usually made, plus the fact we are heavily oversold with max short positions on the exchanges and china russia iran and turkey all abandoning the usd and moving in a much more gold driven direction , I would highly recommend subscribing to The high tech strategist by fred hickey, he is much more of a gold nut than a twch nut, at 140 usd a year I find it very good value for his gold comments

[jeanesy] 15/8/2018 09:27

What i find strange is that normally there is a bounce when something falls .. but so far there has been no bounce whatsoever in the POG . It has fallen sharply several times since the 1350 level.. then steadied a bit for a while and then fallen sharply again ..there has been no time when it has risen nicely recently !

[joey wilson] 15/8/2018 09:26

A news article out today stating gold to fall below $1000 an ounce and the reasons for the prediction. This is a good sign that POG might be about to increase as often when these articles are written for the masses the opposite happens.They dont want us to get rich too easily as the market boys love making the dollar for NOTHING. Hard work doesnt come into it.JW

[king suarez] 15/8/2018 09:22

Celeritas,

To me, the charts show levels at where there was significant trading.

I.e those people who bought up to 30p ish in Nov 16 and around that level between August 17 and Jan 18, who are still in profit, might be willing to sell their shares, now down to around the 30p level?

My average is 41p. Too late for me to 'save profit' at the moment, so I continue to hold for long term and will consider topping up if it looks like we've stabilised at some lower level - otherwise I'll be happy for the share price to bounce right back into profit - win win either way...

[celeritas] 15/8/2018 09:15

jeanesy, the gold price is obliging something in the background.

[jeanesy] 15/8/2018 09:13

If WINS was willing to take 250k why has our seller not obliged this morning ?

[bumpa33] 15/8/2018 09:05

Still well bid, best offer outside the price at 39.6

Definitely a lot of dry powder out there...

[king suarez] 15/8/2018 09:03

Looking at the chart, looks like next strong support would be around 30p? That's where I will top up, if we get that low....