Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[dianecarberry] 23/7/2018 14:15

worth no more than 10p on my valuation model.

[peterpowell21] 23/7/2018 13:47

If they tell you to sell, buy, If they tell you to buy sell.
That lot are in it to take your money not help you make any. fake news is there game.

[broken_arrow1] 23/7/2018 13:43

It is only a matter of time before this re-rates, since those stunning results the market has been comatose, hardly any volume, across the sector stocks have been taken down by market maker activity rather than actual selling pressure.

I would not be surprised to see a couple of 4p+/5p+ days if the gold price moves up strongly as it usually does from over-sold levels like now.

Buy as many as you can sub 50p as surely the 77p share price Angel target will be exceeded by some margin in due course.

[lefrene] 23/7/2018 13:35

Thank you for that bit of clarity King Suarez. I'm hoping that now with the whole system in operation costs will reduce a bit further as efficiencies arise from fine tuning the process.

[mattjos] 23/7/2018 13:27

45/46.5 at the mo

Has been quite a while now since anyone selling in the auctions here

[king suarez] 23/7/2018 13:13

Lefrene,

With regards your cash flow calculation - see posts 14066 and 14068 - the all in cost is not $600 per "GEO" ounce, the quoted all in cost is per gold ounce.

Around 60% of the "GEO" ounces produced are gold, the rest is copper and silver.

The all in cost of $600 is quoted as per ounce of gold, because revenue from the sale of copper and silver by product(s) is offset in that calculation. The all in cost per "GEO" ounce is closer to $900, though not quoted.

For simplicity of calculations you can use a cost of $600 oz of gold produced, which is around 60% of total production (based on last years accounts) - so 0.6 x 84k oz x ($1230-$600 @ current prices) = c£32m operating cash flow.

AAZ market cap currently around $68m so operating cash flow is c22p (32/68 x 47p), I think?

[mattjos] 23/7/2018 12:58

Agreed lefrene ... there is no speculative element in our valuation .. quite the reverse.
We are still very much priced in the "I cant believe its so cheap, what's the catch" bracket.

If there is another crash lurking out there then, interest rates will get cut again & I believe the last crash is still seared in most people's minds ... first sign of another one and I believe there will be stampede for Gold.

Combination of a strong gold price and the dividend should afford us plenty of downside protection. Can't think of any other equity I'd be as willing to 'take shelter' in as AAZ

[lefrene] 23/7/2018 12:49

jaspoland, the world is now a strange place, a potential market crash has been hanging in the air for years now, all the 'funny money' from printing bonds has created a financial world that seems dislocated from any previous idea of normality. AAZ would no doubt be hit along with everything else, but as the dust settled the markets would be looking for 'real' value and AAZ has that in spades. It's no longer about future promises, the promise is being delivered right now, and metals do have an intrinsic value either as currency or for industrial purposes. So I'm guessing AAZ would weather a slump better than a lot of light weight service businesses out there.

[celeritas] 23/7/2018 12:49

Jaspo, most people have the same concerns so its probably wrong.

[jaspoland] 23/7/2018 11:56

Lefrene, the market will take note at some point. In the meantime buy as many as you can afford.

Only concerns I have are a stockmarket crash and the current softness in the gold price.

[lefrene] 23/7/2018 11:50

This price does seem wonderfully bonkers. At 82,000 eqv ounces and $1225 an ounce and $1.30 to the £ and say 114,000,000 in issue and an all in cost of $600 an oz, I arrive at the barking mad 28p a share free cash flow. Where have I gone wrong? I know money ($8 million) is allocated to exploration and there will be a divi, and there's still about $12 million debt now neutral with $12 million+ held in cash balances. But even so, an ask of 47p for the shares is surely shum mishtake?

[celeritas] 23/7/2018 11:41

MF, you must be talking about the new high in 1954 with many saying it cant go on, too many problems, it will crash at some point. Only for the mkt to rally for another 18yrs. Most people, nearly 70% think the mkt has already peaked or will peak this year.

[celeritas] 23/7/2018 11:28

Many stocks particularly banks and telecom have had a terrible run, some are at 5 year lows, no bull run there.
I also dont hear the shoe shine boy offering tips yet.

Id say most are and have been wary since 08, no-one I know even mentions the mkt, oh the stock mkt, keep well away from that is the mantra.

I do know quiet a few people who are happy with gambling sites, watching digital reels spin or online bingo is perceived to be less risky, lol.

[mad foetus] 23/7/2018 11:25

Watch Ciovacco on YouTube. More money has been lost in anticipation of corrections than in the corrections themselves. Wait until the signals are clear: you could make a strong case that we are 2 years into a new bull market

[yasx] 23/7/2018 10:27

Celeritas,

Plenty of indicators dear chap - you just need to know what to look for. More later - probably today if I can find the energy.

[celeritas] 23/7/2018 10:23

I've been expecting a correction for a few years now, it will happen but guessing when is impossible. This year, next year, five years, who knows.
What do I have to go on, little more than we've had a long run, not so much the ftse but the Dow which dominates. Yeah other things make you think but look at how subprime really came out of nothing to snowball. I guess the next downturn will be from the unexpected.
Car loans could be a trigger, everyone seems to have a new flash car these days wanting to put out a feeling of status, look at how well I'm doing.
Trade wars, an oil run with something related to Iran or just simply a exhausted run.

[yasx] 23/7/2018 09:56

losttheot,

I expect a significant correction - and soon. Likely this year. Am slowly scaling back positions across the spectrum...

[ilostthelot] 23/7/2018 09:38

Yax what is your view on the overall markets ? Often October time has resulted im the beginning of big bear moves. The market has been topping for a long time now and is due a substantial correction.

Fully agree with your comments that all stocks will suffer in that event which will provide some great opportunities for those brave enough to buy near the bottom.

[dianecarberry] 22/7/2018 21:09

yesX

Not random figures at all. Its what my broker tells me.

[davr0s] 22/7/2018 20:44

Err you can but it is a free world last time I checked, and I am also long. I hate threads that are only for positive views as leads to group think, but I hate deramps that continually spout the same negative post even more. Anyhow I'm a trader so it has no bearing on what I do

[mattjos] 22/7/2018 20:40

the key takeaway points from the share price Angel Flash note, for me, were:

"The Company has recently signed new concentrate off-take agreement offering better terms for payable metal in flotation and SART products"
Is this recent, recent?

"Installed second crusher is now online .....As such copper production is expected to pick up in H2/18 allowing the Company to comfortably meet its annual production guidance of 78-84koz GEO (83koz GEO on our estimates)."

"A lot to look forward to in H2/18 including an announcement of the dividend policy, mineral resource/reserve update, start of the airborne geophysics study covering the whole Gedabek contract area aiming to identify follow up targets as well as ramp up of exploration works at Ordubad."


from 26/3/18 Exploration update:
"- The presence of further mineable copper and gold ores in the Gedabek open pit was established, confirming ore feed for the independent flotation process.
- Continuation of the Gadir ore-body down-dip was established which provides confidence in short-medium term production from Gadir.
- Presence of mineralisation beneath the Gedabek open pit was established.
- A new prospect at Soyudlu was discovered.
- Extensive alteration zones of porphyry style were discovered at Ordubad with confirmation of copper and gold mineralisation."

Given the share price Angel had just returned from visiting Gedabek, they clearly have a high confidence on these points in the note & there is no denying that Ordubad is growing larger in their sights.

[yasx] 22/7/2018 20:07

DianeCarberry,

Unless you have something useful to indicate, I suggest you find something else to do - I welcome bearish analysis, but merely plucking any random figure with no basis for it, and doing so in a recalcitrant manner, is useless. Off you go....

[dianecarberry] 22/7/2018 19:04

mattjos

so why have you responded to me you hypocrite ?

[dianecarberry] 22/7/2018 18:53

trend is down