Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 17/7/2018 19:38

One good thing is that the market is still not looking forward in any way here. Pretty negligible rise in towards these figures. For whatever reasons, this is still pretty much off the scope for most investors. Always seems crazy when you are close to a share personally and can see the opportunity on offer but, likewise, everyone else will be following something else and not really looking about, particularly during summer hols.However, Q3 update in 14 weeks time is going to change that.Looking forward to some exploration data in the meantime & early flush from the aerial survey which will obviously be happening during the summer + of course, what many long term investors are really looking forward to .. the interim dividend.

[mattjos] 17/7/2018 18:07

Couple of down days now please. The excitement of the RNS will wear off quickly once folk realise how long to the next news is scheduled.Let's fill this gap please as gap free from 4p to date. I hate seeing an unfilled gap below.Otherwise, I think 50p will shortly act as the support that 40p was.The share price Angel coverage bears reading a second time, in more detail .. as 2sporans picks out.

[thechurch333] 17/7/2018 17:42

We can forget any talk of a move to the main market anytime soon. AIM is most definitely the right market for this stock.
Much more interesting is what they are going to do with the cash. I suspect only a relatively small proportion will be paid back in dividends. Management have wider ambitions and investment in expansion/other projects, potentially substantial, must be expected.

[jeanesy] 17/7/2018 17:30

Looks like the seller has been busy offloading a few more this afternoon. The MM's look to have done very well today from it . Disappointing to see POG drift below 1230 this afternoon, but i suppose we cant expect everything to go right. Hopefully it wont fall below 1200. Weakness may present some with an opportunity to buy some more over the coming days. Steady as she goes !

[jailbird] 17/7/2018 17:11

Matt,

About moving to main market.

Do you not think once the share price/market cap approaches £100m mkt cap... A move to the main market would be beneficial. A move to one of the All share indexes will be likely and this will bring new investors of funds that invest in All share index Cos

[2sporrans] 17/7/2018 17:07

Heads Up on revised share price Angel note & Target [up from 72 to 77p]

From just nods to Matt's posting of above note [+0 response to my earlier post responding], I wonder if the significance of this upgrade may have been overlooked during the rush of the trading day.

How many spotted that SPA have significantly reduced their AISC estimate for 2018 from $613/oz [based on Q1] to $575/oz. [Based on Q2]?
? [The 2019 f/c is $4/oz higher than previously but for next year the change is just noise, not significant.]

Never mind the solid Q2 quantities, it's the quality [of processing] that has scored with SPA. Hence their Target price rise.

They said as much:
"Production numbers came broadly in line with our estimates for 16.2koz total gold and 0.4kt copper; although, financially operations outperformed with closing net debt balance of $2.9m versus $7.6m on our numbers. The latter is attributed to stronger concentrate sales which accounted for c.$1.5m and potentially from lower operating costs than we assumed. The Company has recently signed new concentrate offtake agreement offering better terms for payable metal in flotation and SART products."

The improved Concentrate agreement terms will add further margin on top of the cost reduction.

SPA have left their forecast for 2018 production quantity virtually unchanged; it's currently 82.9k GE oz.

FWLIW, I expect that although the gold output [from Ugur, not Gadir] may taper off a little more during H2, there will be a massive surge in Copper output to over-compensate and we will see 90K+ GE at year end.

[supercity] 17/7/2018 17:00

I think there is far too much concern over the gold price for producers in general.All in production cost of $600 so if the gold price fluctuates between $1200-$1300 you are still looking at $600-700 difference-it's not like there is a small margin for profit.AAZ is very undervalued, we all know it and the true value always comes through in the end - patience is all we need as the company is doing all the right things

[robo21] 17/7/2018 16:54

Sad that we got a great update as gold drops thru 1240 !!!

[bumpa33] 17/7/2018 16:51

Checked the form into the close and pretty even, perhaps unfortunate that gold continues to be under pressure from a stronger dollar (what a daft anomaly that is) if there are those trading this as a proxy for the yellow stuff. Regardless though, still stupidly cheap by any metric and value will out sooner rather than later.

[callmebwana] 17/7/2018 16:46

Yes it would be nice to see the share price stay above the 50P mark.Not long to wait when that happens.They can't keep a good one down all the time.IMHO.

[gutterhead] 17/7/2018 16:05

next couple of days will be interesting-

-see if we hold recent gains
-normally takes a few days for larger inst investors to digest and decide to buy

20% gain for those who bought/bought more recently at early 40's, nice.....

[the_debt_collector] 17/7/2018 14:50

I see share price Angel have increased their target price to 77p.

[bleepy] 17/7/2018 13:59

Just processed my two votes on II and enjoying the start of a run to 120p and beyond that once resource reserve jorc’s are updated from ongoing exploration.

[bmcb5] 17/7/2018 13:54

Agreed Matt, and as I said, i think you do a great job. It is one of the best boards around

[lefrene] 17/7/2018 13:51

Mattjos, thank you for reminding me (and Terropol) it was Bashirov, to my mind at the time it made AAZ seem to be a part of yet another dodgy AiM scam.

[terropol] 17/7/2018 13:43

Friendzarin, AAZ is the biggest independent company in Azerbaijan, also the biggest exporter. (away from Oil)
We are on the Azerbaijan MAP.

Gedabeck as become a busy and successful place due to AAZ.
Creating much employment, that is good for the people and good for the government.

Can AZERGOLD copy our results? They are trying but not sure they have enough experience to do it.

WE are part of the winning team.

[jaspoland] 17/7/2018 13:42

Those expecting/hoping for a dividend of 2p or more to be declared with the interims are likely to be out of luck imho. It's only an interim dividend which in most cases is always smaller than the final dividend.

Therefore I'd be happy with 1p declared at interim stage and 2p for a final dividend. Next year the company will be able to sigificantly increase them, assuming Gold doesn't fall out of bed.

It needs to be a progressive dividend policy, so they can maintain it. That's not to say they wouldn't declare a special dividend if cash levels became a nice problem.

[friendzarin] 17/7/2018 13:28

I do think that there will be a virtuous circle in Azerbaijan for AAZ with its cash generation.The government and most importantly Aliyev would be much more supportive of reinvesting in current infrastructure and Ordubad in particular than any special dividends that could be paid.I could easily see a scenario where additional incentives might be made available for this to happen.Reza will have a good hand to play here I feel.

[jeanesy] 17/7/2018 13:27

Sure did Jaspoland :) Some people never learn here, each to their own but I am still holding and adding here ( actually made 3 small top ups last week ) If we get some good news on exploration then who knows where we will end up, despite the current weakness in the POG ?!

[bmcb5] 17/7/2018 13:25

This is one of the best threads on advfn

Agree with that. sometimes the moderation is over zealous for my liking. I've seen some comments prior to moderation, and they didn't seem worthy of blocking. I welcome a bear view. That said, I don't envy the role of board moderation, and i think you do a good job Mattjos. Credit to you, and i'm very happy to reside here in the background.

[terropol] 17/7/2018 13:25

Base metals:

Copper US$ 6,200/t vs US$6,198/t yesterday

Copper continues to advance as supply concerns swell with the world’s biggest miners struggling to secure assets and BHP Billiton’s wage negotiations fail to meet a compromise.
BHP’s first formal wage offer to workers at the world’s largest copper mine has been rejected by the Sindicato No. 1 de Trabajadores Minera Escondida, according to a statement on the labour union’s website. The Union confirms that it rejected the proposal, but a new round of talks will begin today. The workers are asking BHP to avoid making ultimatums, as the Union rejected the offer which proposed a bonus 47% lower than expectations.
The hunt for global copper is growing as the largest miners all have bullish bets on the metal and looking for growth in the metal to track strong forecasts as cities expand and the electric economy gains traction. The industry is willing to bet big on securing output, with Rio Tinto Group having ended the year raising $8.5bn from asset sales and rivals like BHP Billiton Ltd. And Glencore Plc are churning out significant profits.
The issue surrounds a lack of sellers. Even when Glencore and Anglo American Plc were crippled by debt during the 2015 commodity slump, neither was willing to entertain an offer from Rio for their holdings in the giant Collahuasi deposit in Chile.
Rio Tino are best-positioned to capitalise on deal opportunities, following agreeing to the sale of its interest in the Grasberg copper and gold mine for $3.5bn last week, within almost no debt. With pending sales of coal and aluminium also set to close this year, the company will have significant cash to propose purchase options. Chief Executive Office Jean-Sebastien Jacques has said the company is keeping a “watching brief” on potential M&A and would like to add more copper.
Meanwhile BHP Billiton have announced that its asset portfolio will be close to ideal once the US oil and gas assets have been sold, and Glencore are currently facing a probe from US authorities which may dampen its ability to pursue big deals.
Anglo’s response to the lack of opportunities has been to build its own new copper mine, with the company’s board set to approve a new $6 billion project in Peru. Mark Cutifani, Anglo chief executive, has been searching for a partner to help de-risk and finance Quellaveco, which analysts say will cost $5.5bn-$6bn to develop over four years. Mitsubishi already owns 18.1% of Quellaveco and Thursday’s deal will see its interest rise to 40%. Anglo will retain 60% and operate the mine.

FROM SPANGEL morning note.

[mattjos] 17/7/2018 13:21

it was Kaghani Bashirov .. a 'freelance' wheeler-dealer financier type based in Luxembourg, London & Baku.

He bought in many years ago in big way after he became aware of just how big the resources were in the area.
However, his way of doing business was not exactly legal & he got caught and ended up in court & I think jail .. in the run up to the court process he was a desperate seller of his 14% of the stock and that is what drove the price down to sub 4p and to fill the 2008 gap on the chart.

his demise was our opportunity

[celeritas] 17/7/2018 13:21

I agree, its hard to distinguish and weed out good investment especially on advfn.
This is one of the best threads on advfn.